Professional Consultant and DU Member explains how Dean will beat Bush

[Dems Will Win]

For those who don't know, I actually get paid to consult campaigns and I have won 22 out 26 county-level races. Here is why I believe Dean is going to beat Bush and maybe even take the House back. Dems Will Win!

First, Dean is enfranchising a huge chunk of the 100 million voters who did not vote in 2000 as well as the young Millennial Generation voters who can vote for the very first time. BTW, since these voters are currently unknown, they do not show up in any poll. And as it will soon be realized that Bush will reinstate the DRAFT in 2005 (June 15, 2005 now the most likely date for the first DRAFT LOTTERY), I am hereby officially upping the size of Dean's new voter chunk from 6 million to 10 million young people and other non-voters. This is the biggest revolution in politics since Andrew Jackson in 1828, as the women's vote so closely matched the male vote after Suffrage in 1920. 85% to 90% of these New Voters will vote for Dean, just as Jackson got the lion's share of the newly enfranchised white men in 1828.

The Repukes will probably register another 1 million to 1 1/2 million in their new GOTV effort. Assuming the same numbers as 2000, add the 8.5 million Dean will register and get to Gore's 50,999,897 and 1.5 million to Bush's 50,456,002 and you get a popular vote of:

Dean 59,499,897 and Bush 51,956,002 or a plurality of 7.5 million for the Good Doctor.

Second, given that most of the manufacturing jobs lost in Ohio and West Virginia are not coming back, Dean will take all of Gore's states and add Ohio and W. Virginia, plus Arkansas when Clark is added to the ticket as VP, so the electoral vote would be:

Dean 291
Bush 247

The 10 million new voters could be as low as 8 million, but any figure lower than that--given the new knowledge that the DRAFT will come back in 2005 and the Internet-powered Dean Machine of at least 2 million Dean Volunteers will soon be knocking on everyone's door in the Swing States (and all the others)-- is just GOP-wishful thinking, I believe.

Rove knows this and that's why he had the ads made to attack Dean a month before the first primary!

Any poll taken now, such as the Newsweek poll just before Saddam's capture (Bush 49, Dean 42) add 5 to 7 points to Dean's total to reflect the New Voters that have yet to even register.
But polls now will not come near Dean's final total.

And the economy cannot save Bush as corporations plan to send another 1 - 2 million plus jobs overseas next year at least. (That trend is increasing and not decreasing).

The capture of Osama just before the Dem convention could throw a curve ball into the mix, as could another terror attack, but it won't have as big enough effect as Rove might hope for to overcome Dean in Ohio and WV and AR. Plus VP Clark will help neutralize the whole National Security issue in the Clark/Cheney debate.

And that, my friends, is the most likely scenario -- and how Dr. Dean will give the White House a Bushectomy in November 2004!

BUSH '04 = DRAFT '05

[Andy_Stephenson]

1. What about the rigged vote factor?

because we all know the machines are rigged.

[Dems Will Win]

4. Ohio it's true will likely be rigged

It's up to us to expose the Diebold executive there and the OH Secretary of State and force a paper trail on them that can be recounted. THe software is severely compromised.

I'm assuming such a big win in OH that they can't hide it without getting caught now. Of course the Bushies are criminals and they will steal it in FL but in Ohio, they are already under the microscope.

It's true, the fix is in but we must fight them to the very end on this--if you want to take our country back!

We do have Bev Harris on our side!!

[HootieMcBoob]

2. I like the positive point of view

but does your view change if Clark is not on the ticket?

[Dems Will Win]

8. If Clark is not on the ticket, we lose AR

Then it's

Dean 285
Bush 253

By the Way, you can play with this great map from the Edwards site:

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

[HFishbine]

3. Question

A terrorist attack before the election. Does that help Bush by increasing American's fears and therefore making us less likely to change leaders during a "war," or does it help dems by demonstrating that Bush has failed to make us safer?

[rucky]

5. That would be my take on it as well

n/t

[Dems Will Win]

6. It will help Bush a little as the Corporatist Media will play it up to the

hilt for the Repukes. A terror attack will still not be enough to counteract all the Newbies, IMHO...

[stinkeefresh]

18. it has suddenly struck me that the Olympics

might see terrorism. Athens will be very hard to secure, and an attack on Americans there would give bush the fear and anger that he needs without taking the blame. (because it isn't in America)

[wryter2000]

7. Thank you

My influenza-wracked brain needed something cheerful. I sure hope you're right.

But, seriously...Gore won in 2004. We hear all over about people who voted for Whistle Ass and won't do it again. I don't see how the Chimp-in-Chief can win short of stealing the election.

[Larkspur]

9. I think Sen. Graham has a better chance at being Dean's VP than Clark

Especially in light of Clark's temper tantrum about Clark saying Dean offered him the VP slot. Dean can't afford that kind of behavior from his VP, but Graham is a seasoned senator who voted against the IWR, granted for other reasons than the anti-Iraq war protesters, but Graham will give Dean much needed information on how Congress works. Clark will be more of a risk as VP than Graham and not offer much in knowledge of how Congress works.

And Graham most likely can deliver Florida, which has more votes than Arkansas.

[Skwmom]

52. Temper tantum?

I'd watch making that kind of assertion in light of the fact that there is extensive footage of your candidate acting shall we say acting less than mature.

[Donna Zen]

73. And since a staffer no longer with Dean, has confirmed he did

offer Clark the vp, and is now lying about it.

Her name was in an article on LBN, I'll see what I can do about finding it there or in an email I received.

I must have missed Clark's temper tantrum, although I know he holds the idea of "Honor" as very important.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

I'm not an expert

... but I would be willing to bet that if a draft starts, it will radicalize young voters.
Whether this will affect the election is open to question.
Depends how long it takes.

(edit -- this is a reply to message 10, from dolstein)

[KoKo]

11. Dolstein you used "Deaniac," you might want to edit your post for that.

;-)

[AlinPA]

12. Sorry if seems that I am piling on after dolstein, but the broadcast

media is nearly all in Bush's camp and a lot of print media is also cheering for Bush and against Dems. So that scares me. If we can win (I still believe it is very much uphill) it will be because of our increased effort and organization on the ground.

[Dems Will Win]

13. I am actually picking up a check from the County Chairman in a couple of

hours. When were you last paid as a professional, dolstein? And the County Chariman is ecstatic with me because due to mostly me, our county went from 25 Repuke to 8 Dem in the local legislature to 17-16 R/D!

I am not just a political consultant, I am a true-blue whiz kid. How? I get the truth out about the Repukes by printing our own campaign newspaper and the truth vaporizes the Repukes every time.

What's your record, dolstein? Because mine is 22 out of 26. And they were all "lost causes" like Dean. Dean will have almost as much hard and soft money as Bush (thanks to Soros and other groups) -- so that's incorrect. And he will have at least 2 million volunteers from my reckoning. The record for a Pres campaign is under 200,000!

By the way, the Dean campaign in Iowa took up my suggestion for a state-wide newspaper and printed up 150,000 copies and it will soon be dropped there.

How many Presidential campaigns have implemented your advice on a state-wide basis, dolstein?

[opihimoimoi]

16. What it amounts to is Dean can truthfully/accurately describe the

bull coming from the PUBs. And thats only because the Pubs have nothing else. Like schoolyard bullies, the Pubs attact dissenters like they are traitors/evil orges/etc. It is not about what is the BEST way, its about their way.

And so Dean is like a freshing breeze...replacing the stench of greed and selfishness. He is not perfect but he is there speaking to us like a born leader. He is energizing, he is passionate, and he is articulate. This man can sell vacum cleaners and make a living. He is Americas best shot at taking the First Idiot/Puppet outta there

Come, we prepare the luau.

[Dems Will Win]

32. Will there be poo-poos?

[opihimoimoi]

77. many onolicious kinds of pupus

from sashimi, to roast pig.

[mikehiggins]

79. You didn't mention that he is a professional politician.

Just thought I'd bring that up since so many folks talk about his record and don't see what that record means.

Dean was talking about running for the Presidency in 2000, and now his chance has arrived. The people who think he is some sort of new "freshing breeze...replacing the stench of greed and selfishness" are simply deluding themselves.

Makes no difference to me. If I agreed with the scenario laid out at the top of this thread I'd throw in my lot with Dean in a minute. I just can't see it happening, not at all.

[Gman]

27. Soros is having second thoughts about Dean

saw it somewhere this week. If true, he may not want to throw money after a losing cause.

[Scott Lee]

47. I don't think he had first thoughts about Dean. Check your facts.

[Tinoire]

83. I take that as an endoresement for Dean. Whoever Soros wants

I do NOT want.

Soros and his Carlyle buddies are trying to buy this election and protect their investments. Soros' money was, from the very start, only meant for one candidate in particular and that was never Dean.

Soros not liking Dean is a big PLUS for Dean in my book.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

85. What's wrong with Soros? Sounded like a hero to me....

n/t

[Skwmom]

53. The truth vaporizes the Repukes?

What do you think it is going to do to Dean?

[Skwmom]

56. The suggestion of a newspaper to be widely distributed has

already been posted on the Clark blog. It's not like you've come up with an idea that's never been thought of before.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

84. well ya better start advising the rest of us on how tto get those numbers

cuase the rest of the country is not seeing numbers like that... You must be a "whiz kid." Congrats by the way.

You should put your newsletter out over the internet so the rest of us can have access to it...

[Dems Will Win]

14. On the New voters

In my experience, if they register to specifically vote for Dean, and against Bush, they will vote for Dean. At least 8.5 million, if not more.

Watch the caucuses in Iowa and you will see them show up in droves.

Droves will not register for Gephardt or Lieberman. Clark may get some new registers. Kerry a few. Only Dean will get the young new registers--and at least 85%.

And that's no Fuzzy Math!

[The Commie]

63. Yep...

...I am one of those new voters who will vote for the Good Doctor. B-)

[iluvchicago86]

15. THAT'S RIGHT

Bush may have strength in money. But he does not have immense grass roots support like Howard Dean does. 2004 will be the first election where I will be able to vote. But I sure as hell won't be the only person my age casting a vote for Howard Dean, should he get the nod. There's a crapload of young kids energized about Howard Dean. From today until next November you are gonna see young kids carpeting the cozy rural sprawls and urban jungles of the US singing the Doctor's praises. And people will listen. Why? Because the voices of young,smart,energetic, and cute kids always drown out the battle cries of fear-mongering Republicans. Happy Holidays all.

[Cary]

19. Hope you're correct (not right) too.

I'm trying hard to get a good feeling about this next election. I must admit that the right's arguments that with the economy improving, and things going better in Iraq, are getting to me in terms of thinking the Dems may be in trouble.

This bothers me because I can't in good conscience root for the economy to be bad, or for more trouble in Iraq. But jeez Louise, another 4 years of Bush? I can't stand it.

Can someone help me out here and elaborate on how we're reaching these young voters? Sounds like a good strategy although I'd feel better if we had all sorts of polls and other things screaming at the Republicans for being morons.

[Donna Zen]

74. 10 million Christians

They are going to counter with a grassroots of their own that is organized and waiting. Part of that 200,000,000 will be used for this effort and GOTV. This will be modeled after what Reed did in GA.

Just trying to keep it real.

[Upfront]

17. Like Your Thinking

Hope you are right. Go Dean!!!!!!!!!

[gulliver]

20. And the Great Pumpkin will rise out of the pumpkin patch...

Prove your statement: "First, Dean is enfranchising a huge chunk of the 100 million voters who did not vote in 2000..."

And don't tell me that these armies of ghost voters can't be polled. If they can't be polled, how do you know they exist at all?

[Dems Will Win]

28. Obviously, you have not run campaigns for 20 years as I have or

you would not even ask those questions.

100 million did not vote in 2000 and millions more young people--raised by Progressive Boomer parents--are now voting age. They are registering in droves for IA and NH already and poised to do so around the country.

The only question is whether Dean will bring in 6 million, 7 million, 8 million, 9 million or 10 million new voters. I say 10 million when the 2005 DRAFT scares the crap out of them and their families.

And don't forget the Special Skills and Medical DRAFT will force all computer experts and linguists and medical personnel to REGISTER at their local Post Office in 2005 and people will know this before they vote in 2004. That's millions of people right there who will be scared to death of a second Bush term and many will work for Dean, much less vote for him.

[gulliver]

29. Um, you are appealing to your own authority?

That would be fallacious even if you weren't completely anonymous.

Then "they are registering in droves..." you say, but that's begging the question which is, to repeat, "Can you prove it?"

[Dems Will Win]

37. This is just one article

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F30B12FF3A5E0C748CDDAB0994DB404482

But there are many more articles about how Dean is turning on the youth like a light bulb. Even more astounding is the fact that 25% of Dean contributors are under the age of 29!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That is clearly proof something is happening here that is completely without precedent. Young people typically don't get involved in these numbers and they never contribute money like that!

[bearfartinthewoods]

41. well that explains alot

i was wondering where all these gullable people were coming from.

[goobergunch]

57. So all young people are gullible?

:eyes:

[SahaleArm]

75. No just a lousy voter track record n/t

[Hawkeye-X]

65. Sir. I will be 28 in 2004

and I'm well-informed as the next politico, and my support is for Dean because he's done his homework and knows how to get people moving. He has over 160,000 people going to meetups, and it is growing EVERY month. I plan to attend my 2nd meetup on Jan 7th.

Hawkeye-X

[Dems Will Win]

46. How many new voters? Try 15 million turned 18 since 2000

since those born after 1982 are "Millennials" to the demographers and raised by Progressive Boomers, they will vote 90% progressive out of the 50% that will vote. There are 15 million age 18-22 by Nov 2004, that gives Dean 45% of 15 million.

[SahaleArm]

76. 50% will vote? That's a pipe dream.

What's your source for this data?

[Skwmom]

50. "Scaring the crap out of them"

What a choice of words. That is exactly the reaction I expect to see once they run the footage of Dean raving like a lunatic and doing the moonie type chant of "you have the power." There is NO way the american public will want his fingers on the button.

[mikehiggins]

80. The only thing that convinces me you are on the level is your attitude

It is identical to those guys I worked with in Brooklyn and Queens over the last two decades. Its the kind of confidence needed when what your selling depends as much on your salesmanship as it does on results.

However, I think that you may have violated one of the primary rules of being a consultant; you have begun to believe your own press releases. You are postulating a massive growth in voter registration in the millions, largely driven by Governor Dean's candidacy. Where are they? Maybe reporting is a lagging indicator but nobody I know in NYC has said anything about a marked rise in new, first time registrants. Are they all planning to wait for the day before the primary?

And again, about the draft, outside of DU and the blogs I don't know of anyone who is emphasizing this issue before the public. There is no doubt in my mind that BushCO is thinking about this possibility but they are not going to announce it a moment before they have to. And what are the possibilities that Dean, if elected, might not find it practical to go the same route.

Me, this reminds me of the old Goldwater joke. They told me that if I voted for Goldwater we'd be at war in Viet Nam within the year. SO I did, and they were right.

I don't know where you hang your hat, friend, but I don't think its Brooklyn.

[Eurobabe]

71. LOL

thanks for the Xmas eve vision...

[RDANGELO]

21. I just have one question

Why didn't this scenario work for Georg McGovern.

[HFishbine]

22. Do you really want to know? Here's your answer

Even after Saddam Hussein was captured last weekend, all that some people could talk about was Howard Dean. Neither John Kerry nor Joe Lieberman could resist punctuating their cheers for an American victory with sour sideswipes at the front-runner they still cannot fathom (or catch up to). Pundits had a nearly unanimous take on the capture's political fallout: Dr. Dean, the one-issue candidate tethered to Iraq, was toast — or, as The Washington Post's Tom Shales memorably put it, "left looking like a monkey whose organ grinder had run away."

I am not a partisan of Dr. Dean or any other Democratic candidate. I don't know what will happen on Election Day 2004. But I do know this: the rise of Howard Dean is not your typical political Cinderella story. The constant comparisons made between him and George McGovern and Barry Goldwater — each of whom rode a wave of anger within his party to his doomed nomination — are facile. Yes, Dr. Dean's followers are angry about his signature issue, the war. Dr. Dean is marginalized in other ways as well: a heretofore obscure governor from a tiny state best known for its left-wing ice cream and gay civil unions, a flip-flopper on some pivotal issues and something of a hothead. This litany of flaws has been repeated at every juncture of the campaign this far, just as it is now. And yet the guy keeps coming back, surprising those in Washington and his own party who misunderstand the phenomenon and dismiss him.

The elusive piece of this phenomenon is cultural: the Internet. Rather than compare Dr. Dean to McGovern or Goldwater, it may make more sense to recall Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy. It was not until F.D.R.'s fireside chats on radio in 1933 that a medium in mass use for years became a political force. J.F.K. did the same for television, not only by vanquishing the camera-challenged Richard Nixon during the 1960 debates but by replacing the Eisenhower White House's prerecorded TV news conferences (which could be cleaned up with editing) with live broadcasts. Until Kennedy proved otherwise, most of Washington's wise men thought, as The New York Times columnist James Reston wrote in 1961, that a spontaneous televised press conference was "the goofiest idea since the Hula Hoop."

Such has been much of the reaction to the Dean campaign's breakthrough use of its chosen medium. In Washington, the Internet is still seen mainly as a high-velocity disseminator of gossip (Drudge) and rabidly partisan sharpshooting by self-publishing excoriators of the left and right. When used by campaigns, the Internet becomes a synonym for "the young," "geeks," "small contributors" and "upper middle class," as if it were an eccentric electronic cousin to direct-mail fund-raising run by the acne-prone members of a suburban high school's computer club. In other words, the political establishment has been blindsided by the Internet's growing sophistication as a political tool — and therefore blindsided by the Dean campaign — much as the music industry establishment was by file sharing and the major movie studios were by "The Blair Witch Project," the amateurish under-$100,000 movie that turned viral marketing on the Web into a financial mother lode.

more: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/21/arts/21RICH.html?ei=5007&en=035abc452122c4ec&ex=1387342800&partner=USERLAND&pagewanted=print&position=n=

[edzontar]

36. Because Georg McGovern does not exist.

GEORGE McGovern ran in 1972, and I voted for him.

A fine man, and the proudest vote of my life.

WAR IS OVER!!!

If you want it.

Happy Xmas.

[NJCher]

23. the 22% hate bush factor

FWIW:

My husband was watching public television's evening newscast and I was in the kitchen when he called me to see this report. I ran to the LR and heard a researcher stating that 22% of registered voters say they hate bush and will vote against him (meaning ABB) in the next election. The researcher said he'd examined this figure over a series of elections and when it gets to be a certain number, the incumbent can't win.

I thought it was quite fascinating and wanted to post a thread about it but couldn't because I didn't hear the researcher's name.



Cher

p.s. RDANGELO, there are numerous essays out, mostly by the r-w pundits, on why Dean is no McGovern. It has now been acknowledged by them that thinking of Dean as McGovern could be dangerous to their cause.

[John_H]

24. Boy, you know you're in huge trouble when you haul out the "new voters"

schtick. Everyone's used that one, from McGovern to Perot to Nader.
It translates exactly to "not nearly enough registered voters support us."

You don't need a paid consultant to understand that 200 million bucks and a compliant sycophantic media is going to make this election about national security. And they're salviating to have at Dean because he's the weakest we've got on that issue aside from Sharpton.

[windansea]

25. newsflash

Clark won't be on a Dean ticket

county politics is to presidential politics like little league is to the majors

too bad the most accurate post was deleted

[Dems Will Win]

31. Yes but now the national Dean campaign IS taking my advice

and made the Iowa newspaper.

So I just got PROMOTED, my friend! I am now national!

What Presidential campaign have implemented your suggestions on a statewide basis and spent $25,000 doing so, Windandsea?

HMMMM?

Love your handle by the way...

[windansea]

33. congrats!

can't wait to see the next polls from Iowa..specially Dean campaign internals...

have you seen any media coverage there re: Quad Cities Times editorial?

my handle is taken from the name of a famous beach here (SD)...thanks!

[Gman]

26. Remind me not to hire you!

That's a ton of wishful thinking. There is nothing to contradict the fact that young people do not vote. There is nothing to contradict the fact that socio-ecomonic status largely determines if someone will vote.

18 year olds got the vote in '72 and had every reason to vote against Nixxon for reasons of the draft and didn't. (Even though the lottery was already in place.)

I've yet to see evidence of anything more than maybe 500K active people that are fired up about Dean. Most of these already participate politically and probably would regardless of whether Dean was in the race or not.

Your entire argument is based on young people who statistically and historically don't vote. There is nothing there to think they will go against 30 years of history since 18 year olds started voting.

[Dems Will Win]

30. I will remind you not to hire me...

...I only work for smart people who understand that something NEW does come along every once in a great while -- and Generation Dean is that NEW thing for this election.

The generals only fight the last war, never the new one, remember.

[edzontar]

34. Dean will win!!!!

Have a happy new year!

[polpilot]

70. Dean will win BIG and DESTROY the repubs in the process!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dean '04...

[amazona]

35. nice analysis one ?

I thought Clark said he would not consider a VP slot.

Does the analysis require a southern VP? There are other good ones Dean could choose but not with the same military experience.

On edit -- On further reading of the thread, I see you already answered my question. Thanks.

Good to see some hope out there.

[Dems Will Win]

39. Dean will ask Clark again to be VP in March or April

he will not wait for the convention.

And then he will say Clark is assigned to catch Osama and fight the terrorists and shut off the Saudi terror funding. That oughta do it!

[Patriot_Spear]

38. Thanks for this Post!

What a nice Christmas present you got me...! ...and I didn't get you anything.

[bearfartinthewoods]

40. with all your experience and you think bush will starta draft BEFORE

the election"

yeah...right.

[Dems Will Win]

42. Not before, BFITW, after!

Best handle on DU, BTW, bearfartinthewoods!

But people will know before, in 2004, that he will start the DRAFT in 2005. The Draft Board Recruitment Ad is Back Up--With 2 New Sentences Saying There is NO Connection to Iraq. And this time It's on the SSS.gov Home Page!

http://www.sss.gov

<snip>

Selective Service continues to invite interested citizens to volunteer for service on its local boards that would decide claims from men if a draft were reestablished. This invitation for board members has been ongoing over the past 23 years, although there has not been a military draft in over 30 years. There is NO connection between this ongoing, routine public outreach to compensate for natural board attrition and current international events. Both the President and the Secretary of Defense have stated on several occasions that a draft is not needed for the war on terrorism, including Iraq. People seeking further information about Selective Service's standby boards or application should consult "Fast Facts" on this site.

<snip>

IN ADDITION:

George W. Bush is moving to re-activate the DRAFT and have the first Lottery drawing of 20-year old men, as well as doctors, nurses, computer specialists, linguists and engineers by June 15, 2005, AFTER the 2004 election. Please help get the word out. They are soon going to have a Special Skills draft as well, meaning they can draft anyone up to age 45, if the Pentagon says they have a shortage in that area. Arab linguists will be inducted first, then many others. Lewis Brodsky himself said this was a priority. As it is, upon activation, all 3.4 million doctors and nurses under 45 will have to register with the SSS.

The official Selective Service site clearly says that $28 million is being spent next year to have the draft ready for activation within 75 days by March 31, 2005, conveniently AFTER the 2004 election. All Bush has to do is say "We are not going to Cut and Run from Iraq, but we have no more men. THe Pentagon has told me we need to activate the Selective Service System". The scrubbed Draft Board recruitment ad (the first in decades), was just the tip of the following $28 million iceberg headed for a home near you:

http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_fy2004.html

<snip>

Strategic Goal 1: Increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the Manpower Delivery Systems (Projected allocation for FY 2004 – $7,942,000)

Strategic Goal 2: Improve overall Registration Compliance and Service to the Public (Projected allocation FY 2004 – $8,769,000)

Strategic Goal 3: Enhance external and internal customer service
(Projected allocation for FY 2004 – $10,624,000)

Strategic Goal 4: Enhance the system which guarantees that each conscientious objector is properly classified, placed, and monitored.(Projected allocation for FY 2004 – $955,000)

Total=$28,290,000



An annual report providing the results of the implementation of these performance
measures will be submitted by March 31, 2005. This report will address attained versus
planned levels of performance, explain unattained target levels, and identify where and
how strategies, performance goals, and performance indicators should be changed to
ensure that the SSS reaches its strategic and annual goals and objectives.


<snip>

tie that paragraph to this one:

<snip>

Strategic Objective 1.2: Ensure a mobilization infrastructure of 56 State Headquarters,
442 Area Offices and 1,980 Local Boards are operational within 75 days of an authorized
return to conscription.

<snip>

They are reducing draft activation time to 75 days from the current 7-8 months!!!!!! The first draft lottery according to this official document could be June 15, 2005.

Question: why does a dormant agancy need to be ready to answer all correspondence in 10 days?

They said "no plans" yet they are conducting nation-wide exercises far beyond what is needed for a dormant agency. This is really a plan to get the whole system ready for activation within the 75 days proscribed, although Congress must authorize the actual activation. They are trying to stop this discussion by saying "no plans", making everybody think it's off the table. They just mean Bush has "no plans" to ask Congress at this time. Yet on April 1, 2005, according to this he could ask for activation and have it in 75 days.

Also draft boards reported being "unexpectedly" asked during summer training sessions to fill the Board vacancies (salon.com from a Philly draft Board member)

Also Rumsfeld's leaked memo said "long hard slog" and "we have not made any truly bold moves yet"--and that was after Iraq and Afghanistan.

They are even making sure the Alternative Service is all exercised and ready to go within 75 days of March 31, 2005.

This is called Performance improvement but it looks exactly like a readiness action. They are bringing the whole system up to 90% + operational capability after 30 years of dormancy. Obviously, with a war on terror this could be considered prudent (although you don't need a draft to catch Osama Bin Laden and several thousand al-Queadas). Then why did they scrub the Draft Board notice? Why not come say out front we are filling the Draft Boards and gearing up the system in case the President needs it to fight the war on terror?

Congress would of course have to approve, supposedly after a Joint Session by the President where he could easily say "we are not going to cut and run" (same was said in Vietnam). By March 31, 2005, the draft may only be 75 days away.

This change the dynamics of this issue, because people will say OK, Bush is getting the first draft lottery ready by June 15, 2005 if we need it. Now do I trust him or the Democrat more to not reinstate, given Iraq and PNAC?

In additon Brodsky, the head of SSS, says a priority will be drafting Special Skills Personnel: 20 to 45 year-old computer experts, linguists (especially Islamic languages), and engineers. All 3.4 million doctors and nurses under 45 will have to register at their local Post Office in 2005 if Bush gets Congress's permission. All signs are they will ask for the draft at that earliest possible moment and will probably establish the Special Skills Personnel Delivery System (like the HCPDS) even sooner, as soon as the election is over in November, 2004, although these computer programmers and engineers would not have to register until the draft was activiated.

[bearfartinthewoods]

48. i have to admit that you have hit on MY wet dream

that the draft becomes an issue. the problem is i don't see it coming.

IIRC, ten percent of the military is in Iraq...just ten percent. i don't see a need for the draft short of kim going bonkers in NK though. and even if the draft appears to to loom, i think the parents of the draftees are a more likely target, and the will be ABB so i don't see how that particularly helps dean.

see, i spent some time, way back mobilizing kids against the vietnam war. i know what is and isn't possible. i don't see the hoards that you do.

[mouse7]

61. He won't start draft, but prep for draft is leaking.

The knowledge of the lies on WoMD, Lynch, Saddam and now the news that 130,000 troops will be staying in Iraq through 2004. Dubya has be caught starting the process to start the craft on 75 days notice. Dumbya claim he's not starting the draft, but all those lies will catch up when they have to trust him at his word that their kids won't be going to Iraq.

[Zomby Woof]

43. county races don't equal national ones

Card-stacking.

That, and your projections are overly optmistic, and the basic premise is flawed. Dean has little support right now outside his "energized base". Smoke and mirrors projections at best.

[Hawkeye-X]

66. ZW, my friend..

please provide proof, including polls stating otherwise.

No? Don't have proof? Wishful thinking is all you have for your 3% candidate.

Hawkeye-X

[mouse7]

44. 3 Questions DWW :)

1) What will be the effect on the elections because of finding Mad Cow Disease? Most of Asia has already announced it's blocking sales. What if masssive portions of the cattle stocks have to be destroyed?

2) Is Georgia in play?

3) Would NC be in play if Edwards was Dean's VP?

[Dems Will Win]

45. Very good questions, mouse

1. Since Bush is from Texas and eats lots of beef, everyone will soon realize that he has been infected and has come down with

MAD PRESIDENT's DISEASE!

2. Georgia is assumed to go Repuke in my book because of the Voting Fraud Machines and too many new Repuke votes.

3. No, Edwards has completely blown his constituency in NC by running for President and would not help enough although he would help a it a little. Even with the job-losses, the Carolinas will likely be lost.

[Skwmom]

49. This revolution will implode once the truth comes out in

the general election.

[Scott Lee]

51. It's great to hear from a realtime expert for a change.

I mean after all these funny , limited world polls and such.

Thank you so much for that breath of fresh air!

[Gman]

58. Puhleeeeeeeze...

Anyone can be a political mercenary. Everyone's worked in local and state campaigns and everyone takes credit for the wins and runs from the defeats.

County politics is to presidential politics what tee-ball is to the majors. And, this guy should know that all "politics is local" meaning Dean needs a whole lot more people than the scattered "energized base".

[mouse7]

59. How much money has ""scattered" energized base" raised?

I bet John Kerrry was wishing he had some of that ""scattered" energized base" as he remorgaged his house for 6.5 million to keep his campaign afloat.

[Scott Lee]

68. You know for a guy who just put his house on the block for his run...

I have heard little to nothing about him lately on DU. It seems to be all Clark or Dean. What's up with this?

[Scott Lee]

67. And the basis of your expertise on this matter is........?

You claim "everybody" has worked on these campaigns (incorrect - as I never have), so are you following this up with acknowledging that the thread author knew their stuff, or do they not and thereby invalidate the premise of your response?

Not nice to be cornered, I know, but...?

[windansea]

54. still waiting

on that Iowa poll data...especially the internal ones

heh heh

[quaker bill]

55. Nice post

We do need to get the word out on the Draft. The impact of this on the race will likely be huge. The active service members and vets I know are not fond of Bush* or his war.

There could be a lot of good testimonials on why a young person should vote to oppose their own conscription into this mess.

[joefree1]

60. "Nattering nabobs of negativity?"

I can't wait for the elections when Dean will win and we won't have to listen to attack politics from our own.



How Dean could win: A conservative's view
An influential Bush supporter sees the Democratic front-runner as a credible challenger to the president
By William Kristol, Washington Post
http://www.bouldernews.com/bdc/insight/article/0,1713,BDC_2494_2499900,00.html

"If you have no enemies, it is a sign fortune has forgot you."
- Thomas Fuller (1608 - 1661)

[bain_sidhe]

62. Oh, geez...

I was about to congratulate you on an interesting analysis... and then read the hoary old "Clark as VP" claim and my head exploded again. I hate when that happens...

Ok, cleaned off the monitor enough to say: If you want Clark on the ticket, vote for Clark. You won't get him by voting for Dean.

But, having said that, even though I'm a Clark supporter, I don't buy into the "Dean is unelectable" stuff... ANY of our candidates are electable, IMHO, with the right strategy. I just think Clark would have an easier time getting elected. (Or, to put it another way, there are more stumbling blocks on the road to the White House for Dean than there are for Clark.) And, more importantly, I think Clark would be a better President.

But, hell, yeah, Dean can win. Your analysis is but one way that could happen. I've seen some others that might work, and my own pet theory is that he (and Trippi) have the skills to out-Bush Bush, in terms of the campaign. In my heart, I sometimes worry about that (i.e., must we become the enemy to defeat enemy and all that) ... but not much. As a country, we can't *afford* another 4 years of bush, and I'm not just talking about money. While Dean might be able to out-Bush Bush on the campaign trail, he can't BE Bush in the White House - if only because Democrats aren't as willing to march in lockstep on *anybody's* orders, not even the President's.

Bottom line, I agree, Dean *could* beat bush. And, if he's the nominee, I'll do all I can to make that happen. But, I'd rather see Clark as the nominee!

[shivaji]

64. Latest ABC/Wash Post Poll results 12/21/2003

Dean 31%
Clark 7%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac3/ContentServer?pagename=polls&nextstep=displayQuestion&interactive=n&pollid=2003352&pripollid=&varname=q998_lea&privarname=&questCategoryType=n&questCategory=Variables.questCategory&keyword=Variables.keyword&pollDateRange=Variables.pollDateRange&ctabtype=A&startingRow=31&pollType=National$searchPollid=2003352&newsearch=

[bain_sidhe]

69. Latest CBS poll

Howard Dean
16% (Down from 23% 12/14/03)

Wesley Clark
10% (Unchanged from 10% 12/14/03)

Could be interpreted as Dean's support is very soft, and Clark's support is rock solid. Or, could be interpreted as "Hey, man, it's the holidays. I'm not really thinking about that stuff yet.)

[mzmolly]

72. :)

:kick:

[mikehiggins]

78. You had me up to the Clark VP thing

Not going to happen.

As to the draft, how do you make the average voter beleive it? The DOD says they don't want it. BushCo isn't saying anything openly about doing it. The press will ridicule it.

As to the new voters being energised by Dean, I consider that fairly blue sky at this point. As to two million Dean volunteers knocking on doors, the logistics of something like that would be outrageous.

Since you claim to have handled county wide elections, you have to know how difficult it is to deal with volunteers in any number, even when they have their own coordinating authority such as a union or somthing like that. That many volunteers are inconceivable and would likely prove disastrous in the short run.

Can't work. Won't work. Too many variables that you are discounting out of hand.

I can't buy it.

[KaraokeKarlton]

81. You forgot to add all the moderate Republicans who will vote for Dean

He always got around 20% of those voters here in Vermont and some years he got close to half of them (over 40%). Dean takes guns off the table as well, which will pull even more typically Republican voters onto his side. Dean will beat Bush in a landslide. I have no doubts at all. Clark won't be the VP, though...I think Graham will be. It won't make any difference, though, because Dean could choose Pee Wee Herman as VP and still whoop Bush's tail.

[Dems Will Win]

82. Exactimundo!

Plus the new Hispanic vote and the Arab vote will go Dem this time as well. And don't forget the disaffected soldiers and veterans!

[Smashmouth]

86. What happens to your math if Cynthia McKinney runs as a Green?

The green party will be able to poach from the African American voting base, a group the Dems usually can depend on.

By the way, I donm't mean 'poach' in a negative way; That's a term I've heard used.