Who thinks abortion will be the #1 issue in next election?

[kentuck]

It seems to me that the Repubs are setting the table and the Democrats are falling for it once again. This can only help the Republicans. However, it is a fight that cannot be ignored. For Democrats, it is an unfortunate Catch-22 situation. Today, South Dakota. Tomorrow, Tennessee. Later, about 10 more states will put this issue on the ballot to challenge the law. One doesn't have to be a genius to see where this is going.

http://content.todayscartoons.uclick.com/?feature=688f05aaf59a2327df86938617aba49b

(edited to add cartoon just found)

[Skittles]

1. it's the only thing they have

yup

[The Backlash Cometh]

2. Because they don't have a monopoly on security any more, do they?

[Skittles]

11. that's right

they've lost their ace and now will have to concentrate on their idiotic base which pretty much consists of ignorant single-issue voters

[kentuck]

12. That's the basic bottom line, isn't it?

sad. :(

[Skittles]

13. we are back to God, guns, gays, abortion

bush's America

[Harald Ragnarsson]

19. "ignorant single-issue voters"

That sword cuts both ways, I'm afraid.

[ldf]

22. that may be, but they'll manage to insert HOMOSEXUAL

in there somehow.

probably by screaming how all us homosexuals are trying to make sure roe v wade doesn't get overturned, so we homosexuals can all go out and get pregnant and abort those little fuckers, so we can push our homosexual agenda down everyone's throats.

just sayin...

it worked so well the last time, now they are going after gay adoption.

its all about the queers and all about protecting our children (including fetuses, hell including the egg BEFORE a sperm ever gets near it), two big vote getters. they WILL marry the two.

and dumber than a bedpost middle america will fall for it hook, line and sinker. nah, dumber is too kind. americans don't give a shit. they enjoy reveling in their prejudices and trying to control other people's lives. they have to act out their inferiorities in some way.

those issues are so much more important than the failure of bush on security, our collapsing economy, and the fact that all of our jobs are now in india.

:grr:

[rodeodance]

3. RW has said they will make gay adoptions a wedge issue.

[SpiralHawk]

4. Global Warming

eom

[OctOct1]

5. They do not have public support on this see link

http://www.pollingreport.com/abortion.htm

[kentuck]

8. They don't have to have public support...

They only have to have the support of their base...They will find a way to make up the rest. Or if necessary, they will the rest.

[depakid]

26. That's a nationwide poll

and so doesn't mean much.

Certain states will make this an issue. And I fully expect the Dems to be stupid (like they've been for the last 6 elections) and pander to the right- to people who will NEVER vote for them anyway, rather than standing up for traditional Democratic values.

And, I fully expect that they'll lose a 7th congressional election in a row because of it.

At this point, people don't have many reasons to vote FOR them. Their one and only claim to fame is that they're not Republicans. That won't take them any farther this time than it has for the last 12 years.

[Arkansas Granny]

6. I agree with your assessment. Republicans will try to make this

the #1 issue with gay marriage running a close 2nd. The RW has been trying for years to paint liberal Democrats as being immoral and these are the issues that inflame their base and bring them to the polls in droves. IMO, one of the reasons they are so successful using these tactics is that while most liberals believe in these issues in theory, some are still uncomfortable with them in practice.

[Douglas Carpenter]

7. they will likely try. but it is not an entirely safe strategy for them

The typical country club Republican and a lot of ordinary people who might vote Republican are essentially pro-choice. They ignored that aspect of their platform in the past because nobody believed that Roe-Wade could or would actually be overturned. Now that it is possible the issue could cause considerably more dissension in their ranks than it did in the past.

Previously being anti-choice was a winner for them because it satisfied that end of their constituency but didn't worry pro-choice Republican voters too much. Because nobody believed it could actually happen.

[cali]

9. I believe the opposite to be true.

I think the developments in SD and other states are a HUGE wake up call to the majority that doesn't want Roe overturned. Having said that, elections are always about a confluence of issues. It's hard to know now which ones will dominate, but I tend to think Iraq will be more persuasive than any other issue. There's also a weariness of Republican rule creeping into the debate. I know that sounds vague, but it can be a powerful force in an election.

[kentuck]

10. Interesting...

Their intent may end up different from their reality.

[SheilaT]

14. Perhaps.

Despite the fact that the majority of Americans support relatively open access to abortion, the right wing always makes any support, with no matter how many limitations, as abortion on demand even up to full term. It's always couched as baby-killing, no matter at what point in the pregnancy or for what reason. For them, all pregnancies are sacred and must be carried to term, and unfortunately they control the language of the debate.

It doesn't matter that there's enormous hypocrisy on the part of the right wing, and that their women have abortions at the same rate as the rest of us.

However, if by "next election" you mean 2008, it's really too early to know for certain what the issues will be.

[kentuck]

16. The "next election" is 2006...

it seems to me to be the most important election in my lifetime.

[SheilaT]

17. Okay then.

Since so many here are focusing on 08, I wanted to be sure.

In that case, no, it won't be the major issue. Security and the war and the economy will be.

Recently I had the dubious privilege of listening to the stump speech of Nancy Boyda, who is running again in Kansas's 2nd Congressional District against very conservative incumbent Jim Ryun. Two years ago she lost to him in no small part because she was (and probably still is) Republican Lite. The big issue, at least here in Kansas, was gay marriage, and she (despite having a son who's gay) came out firmly in support of the Marriage Act. She faced a LOT of vocal criticism from Democrats in her own party (I know because I was in a room where that happened) and as a consequence lost support, money, and staff.

This time around she's got the whole Security thing going for her, and no one's going to bring up gay marriage. However, it will be interesting to see what her stand is no abortion, and if, as I sadly expect, she comes out in favor of many or all restrictions, she'll lose again because she'll be running against a man already in Congress who supports overturning Roe v. Wade and restricting it as much as possible.

[BOSSHOG]

15. If states are banning abortion, would it not negate its significance

as an issue?

[leveymg]

18. I'm afraid it'll be cast by the GOP as a referendum on war with Iran

They'll string the crisis out with a Cold War-style strategy of provocations and skirmishes. There'll be a good cop-bad cop act by the Bush Admin. and the Israeli Right. The propaganda will be deafening. But, there's a real danger that someone's going to blink, or that another party gets into it the game, and then all hell breaks lose.

The only answer is regime change in Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem.

[newspeak]

20. maybe we should take the Nader approach to abortion

he stated that abortion is and never should be a government issue-it is between the the woman, her family and their church. Like Hitler and Ceausceau who made it a government (forced) issue-it is a personal issue, not for the state to decide.

[Lexingtonian]

21. no

Give it a couple of months of more shaking up and settling out. We'll see a lot more of the anti crowd trying to rally, and a lot more people talking and others realizing that getting a ban is very 'moral' in theory and esthetics but the opposite in practice.

During the Nineties the national split was ~46% pro-choice, 44% pro-'life', and 10% Undecideds who leaned to upholding Roe v Wade.

Things changed last summer with O'Connor starting to leave the Court. Polling went to 56% pro-choice/upholding Roe v Wade- the Undecideds of the Nineties all went over to full support. (As political reality, that is the decisive event in the whole fight.) Overturning Roe fell to 35% and there are ~9% Undecideds- these are formerly pro-ban people stepping away from that. These new Undecideds split up the middle in the way they lean on Roe.

Right now South Dakota has managed to get the pot stirred again from where it settled in September. I don't see any pro-choice people changing their minds, but there's more ferment and upheaval and rethinking on the other side. There are a lot of previously pro-choice people whose support for overturn is softening and they're struggling to find some new position.

I'll predict to you where the polling is going to be six months from now. It's 56% pro-choice, 24% pro-ban, 20% Undecideds that split up the middle in the way they lean. There simply is a ~24% hard core that wants to live in some idealized Past. But no one else really does. It's going to be basically impossible to run on the issue outside a few extremely conservative enclaves. It isn't going to be a motivator outside the deepest base constituency. It may even become a reason (among many) moderate Republicans decide to stay away from the voting booth if their politicians run too hard or extreme on it.

[leesa]

23. Without a doubt...and it will work too. Along with Diebold and ES&S

[JerseygirlCT]

24. What may foil their plans, however

is that a majority of people support abortion rights. Support for civil rights (like marriage) for gays is still in the minority.

The more of a stink it becomes, the more pressure on supposedly "pro-choice" Republicans to put up or shut up. That leaves openings for Dems, I'd guess.

The more reproductive rights are at risk, the more people may wake up and see this fight for what it is -- just a totalitarian taste of what is to come.

[kentuck]

25. But an important point to remember is :

what percentage of pro-choice voters vote as opposed to the pro-life voters? Although they may be split as far as their support one way or another, pro-life voters would crawl glass and fetuses to vote.

[JerseygirlCT]

27. I guess that's where I'm going

pro-choice folks have gotten a little complacent. The anti-choicers have not -- obviously.

But things are getting pretty scary now -- SD, TN, MS, MO... it's obviously a trap that's now being sprung with Alito on the court.

I'd think the pro-choice people would see all of this and begin to wake up to the fact that we are truly under assault here.