Do early front runners ever win the presidential nomination?

[Clarkansas]

Unless they are an incumbent or former vice-president, it seems like early front runners haven't won the nomination recently. Dean had a early lead and lost in 2004, McCain had an early lead in 2000 and lost. Any others you can think of, or am I out of my gourd?

[BOSSHOG]

1. Bingo Bob Russell was the front runner on West Wing

and got his ass kicked. Clinton was merely an afterthought early in the 92 race. Ed Muskie went down in flames after running up front. It takes incredible organization and lots of bucks to start fast and stay up front. Good point. Pass on to the General to keep a low profile for a while.

[Catchawave]

2. Here's a good article from 1999 on this topic,

very interesting stuff :hi:

http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=19

[Clarkansas]

5. That article sure backs up my theory

Early front runners for the democratic nomination, when they aren't an incumbent or vice president, usually don't get the nomination.

Year / early front runner / nominee
1992 / Cuomo / Clinton
1988 / Hart / Dukakis
1984 / Mondale / Mondale
1976 / Kennedy / Carter
1972 / Muskie / McGovern
1960 / Stevenson / Kennedy

Gore in 2000 and Dean in 2004 follow that pattern. I hope the trend continues in 2008 (I DON'T want Hillary to be the nominee).

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Kerry/Chimp were favored for 04. Gore/Chimp for 00.

You're not out of your gourd but the oddsmakers had the eventual nominees favored 18 months out.

[wisteria]

4. Gore was VP so he was favored. I don't recall Kerry ever being a

favored cadidate until he won in Iowa and NH. It was always Dean and I think Edwards.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. Kerry was the presumptive favorite before anyone had heard of Dean.

Then the pre-primaries began. Things changed. And then the world was set right again.

[election_2004]

8. No, Lieberman was the "frontrunner"

Kerry was always second or third to Lieberman, before Dean arrived on the scene.

[stray cat]

7. W was the front runner in 2000