What Will Happen with Censure (A Prediction)

[alcibiades_mystery]

1) The entire Left Blogosphere will mobilize to support the censure resolution

2) Two to three hundred threads will appear on these boards reminding people to call in, call in, fax, write, email, call call call!

3) Some folks on these boards will become convinced that the censure resolution will indeed pass

4) The censure resolution will be brought up, and lose by a super-majority

5) Fifty to a hundred threads will appear on these boards condemning the Democratic senators who voted against censure; the high of possibility will be followed by the crash of disappointment, disillusionment, etc. Certain outspoken members will be more outspoken, threatening to leave and then begging to be banned. Battles will erupt within the camp, posts and subthreads will be deleted.

But we will have had our political adrenaline fix for the week, and then something else will happen, drawing our attention to that. This cycle has been all to frequent over the last few years. Its unfolding is utterly predictable. This will serve as merely another "wave" or "fix," as the same ole same ole grinds on and on. Perhaps rather than trying so hard to manage these events, DU would be more useful as a forum to manage our responses to these events.

[Mass]

1. 4 will only happen if the GOP wants it.

For the rest, you are probably right.

Also, important bills like the budget will be ignored by DUers and kossaks, when these are issues on which we could have more impact by reminding our senators and congresspeople that there is a vote at the end of the year.

[adigal]

2. Stop being such a pessimist and call your senators!

Stop complaining and do something please.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Who said I wouldn't

The result is, of course, a foregone conclusion, but I suppose we still must run it out, as it were.

And I'm not complaining at all.

[Mass]

3. I wish'd that there had been as many threads asking to call senators

during the Patriot Act debate, but DU was busy with Cheney's hunting success.

[MessiahRp]

5. Maybe it will lose by a lot

And I expect it will with this bunch in charge, but I don't care about the predictability of our reaction to it. We have to have some form of hope at this point. We have zero control of anything and even if Russ' attempt to Censure fails it is still getting out to the public and showing that even with no ability to pass anything some Dems are still showing backbone and standing up to this Administration.

We need any glimmer of hope and positive press we can get these days.

Rp

[havocmom]

11. Loss on Censure may well get more citizens to the polls in Nov.

And more of them will probably remember a lot of incumbents who did not wanna scold the Worst President in History. If we play the game well, it could be a big help toward getting the numbers for impeachment later.

Think Feingold isn't aware of the possibilities? He knows his motion falls on deaf ears in the Senate. He is probably counting on it! ;)

[goclark]

6. So we sit back and do nothing to support

Feingold?

He has been very supportive of the issues that we cry about every day.

I'm with him.

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Who said that?

:shrug:

[rockymountaindem]

8. The same thing's going to happen with the elections this year.

Anybody who thinks that winning back the House is likely needs a reality check. (When flaming me, note that I said "likely", not "possible". Anything can happen.)

When we don't get control, even if we do pick up seats (which I think will happen), a lot of people are going to fly off the handle. I'm not looking forward to it.

[ProSense]

9. No flame

We can win if everyone focuses on 2006.

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. The House is out of the question

At best, it will be a close margin in both the House and Senate, with the GOP holding both chambers but diminished considerably in their ability to pass radical legislation. The media will of course spin it as a considerable surprise victory for the GOP, since they've been bringing up the possibvility of losing both chambers since, er, March.

Yes, there will be mass ritual internet hari kiri committed on these boards the day after the midterms, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

[central scrutinizer]

12. I'm opposed to censure

It will just be a Kabuki theater show, carefully orchestrated by Karl Rove. They will identify which Republican seats are most in jeopardy and allow those reps to vote for censure to inoculate themselves against Bush-itis. Then they can stand on the stump and say, "see, I am independent and don't follow the administration's party line, vote for me." The censure motion will not pass, but Bushco may be able to gain a few percentage points of approval by those confused undecided people who will feel sorry for the poor guy.

[earthside]

13. Reminds me of the Murtha Resolution

Remember after Rep. Murtha said he was going to introduce a resolution to call for the 'redeployment' of U.S. troops out of Iraq?

The radical Republicans proposed their own fake resolution to try and get Dems on the record as "not supporting our troops."

The radicals succeeded and you had folks like Colorado's Rep. Mark Udall even withdrawing their co-sponorship of the original Murtha resolution. Hardly any Democrats even talk about the Murtha resolution anymore.

I can see the radical Republicans in the Senate trying something similar. If they get to work and frame the question the way they want it perceived, then Frist will bring the censure resolution up for a vote ... knowing that he'll get a majority of Democrats to vote against it.

It will be interesting to watch. The Bushites have been very good at this kind of twisted, propaganda politics. I can see the censure resolution becoming a vote on whether or not Democrats support fighting terrorism or if they support our commander-in-chief during a time of war, or (of course) do they REALLY support the troops -- everything BUT the real issue of illegal spying on Americans.

The sad thing is that if that scenario works out, the censure resolution will end up helping Bush instead of calling attention to his criminal misdeeds.

Watch the elite, establishment, inside-the-beltway Democrats run away from Feingold's resolution -- that's my prediction. Instead of listening to the party base, instead of tapping into the energy of progressives of all parties and persuasions, I suspect the Dem leadership will retreat once again.

I hope not. I support a censure resolution as a first step towards impeachment -- nothing would please me more than the Democrats in Washington finally taking a strong, determined, principled stand against Bush and his gang of thieves and murderers. I'll do my part to call and spread the word to support for Feingold.

[Radio_Guy]

15. Censure is a perfect first step

Make the rethugs back Bush. Those from swing states that do will have committed political suicide by siding with an unpopular president. We may never get to see Bush impeached. But we can at worst close the gap in the House & Senate in 2006. Bush's bumblings will then insure we take back the White House and both houses of Congress in 2008.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

14. ALL THAT SAID...

In the course of the above described events, Republican leadership will rally behind the ape-morph and further seal their fate in November... Der Fuhrer will, as you write, dodge this bullet but his pals in the House and Senate will pay later... So it really doesn't matter what DU and other sites say, as long as they spell the name right... R-E-P-U-B-L-I-C-A-N

[bpilgrim]

16. drip-drip-drip

Thank GORE, he 'invented' the INTERNETs :evilgrin:

peace

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. kickity

[The Magistrate]

18. Are You Trying To Make A Liar Out Of Mr. Berra, Sir?

"The future is hard to predict, on account of it ain't happened yet."

[alcibiades_mystery]

19. Hard, but not impossible

Despite the proclamations of David Hume, I remain convinced that if I hit a pool ball into another pool ball, the second will move. Similarly, if a Democrat brings up a resolution to censure Bushie, I am sure that not more than 30 Democrats will vote in favor. ;-)

[The Magistrate]

23. You Would Not Find Me Moving To Cover A Wager Over It, Sir

But the loud circulation of the charges seems useful to me, as part of preparing the ground for this autumn.

[alcibiades_mystery]

25. Oh, I agree that it's useful

I want DUers to focus on why it is really useful, rather than imagining it will pass and then wailing and gnashing teeth behind that.

[The Magistrate]

28. Good Luck With That, Sir

[alcibiades_mystery]

31. lol

indeed

[radio4progressives]

20. Pardon my Ignorance, but Who is Mr. Berra?

always an education on this forum... :hi:

[The Magistrate]

22. Long Ago, Ma'am

He was a catcher for the New York Yankees, and was given to gnomic pronouncements such as the above: a couple of other well known ones are "When you come to a fork in the road, take it," and "It's deja vu all over again."

[alcibiades_mystery]

27. It ain't over til it's over

Yogi was the master of tautology.

[radio4progressives]

21. Your prediction might be right, but I strongly feel this is important

regardless that if it does go down in flames..

Feingold puts it all on the record, which actually hasn't been done yet or fully exposed in the media and to the public, i.e. essentially dismanteling the investitagion committe (a la Bush lick Senator Pat Roberts) - the Corporate Cable and Broadcast Media has barely given mention to this, certainly not the level of in-depth coverage, and amplification required for the American Public to catch up or get a grasp on what this is about - Lou Dobbs has everyone's attention at the moment- i've sent letters to him praising his good work on the Ports issue and requesting that he covers the underpinning issues of Domestic Spying, that was before i learned of Senator Feingold's intention to introduce a motion to Censure the president.

It will be interesting to see how this gets covered...

tin foil hat : unless an unspeakable event occurs just in the nick of time..

[SaveElmer]

26. On first blush...

I don't see how supporting this will harm us at all. It depends on how the media covers it unfortunately. Censure sounds like a good idea to me...but if its meaning somehow gets changed by the msm, that might change. I can see them trying to equate censure with impeachment.

[TayTay]

24. It will most certainly fail. That is not the point.

The Senate should give a damn that the President of the United States broke the law. He did so after consultation with legal advisors. He did so with knowledge aforethought. He is wrong to do this and is breaking his oath of office that states that he will 'preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.'

I know the Rethugs will shoot this down. We stone cold know it. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't try to bring up that this is illegal and that the President of the United States should not get away with breaking the law of the land. It is the right thing to do, especially in light of the cave of the Senate Intel Committee last week.

[alcibiades_mystery]

29. Who said we shouldn't try?

Not me.

[PBass]

30. Dem leaders need to Do The Right Thing

and not give a damn whether they'll have a majority. VOTE YOUR CONSCIENCE.

[mikeanike]

32. pretty accurate

I was listening to the local repub talk show on the way to work this morning (I've found that getting pissed off in the morning wakes me up better than coffee, I recommend it) and he had the idea that the repubs should abstain from a vote. Which if done would actually prove to make this move backfire seriously in our faces. Do we really think that all dem senators and House reps will vote for censure/impeachment? Probably not and they can just use that vote count against us. Look at the war vote last year. We may have known what was up but the average voter saw something entirely different.

[Marie26]

33. Probably

Isn't it fun? I don't mind getting swept up in political theater, as long as you know it's only theater.