Morris: McCain is No Front-RunnerDick Morris on Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential chances: "You can’t be a front-runner for your party’s nomination and win 5 percent of the vote in a regional straw poll, finishing fourth, behind Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Virginia Sen. George Allen.
While McCain still leads in the national polls (not counting former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani), he is no genuine front-runner. He lacks the requisite enthusiasm he would need among core Republicans to cop that title.""He is, in fact, more of a stalking horse, a place to store voter preferences while the other candidates for the nomination break through their low thresholds of name recognition." http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/03/14/morris_mccain_is_no_frontrunner.htmlThis makes sense to me (even though it is the toe-sucker).
edit to add the article in The Hill:
Fourth-place finish in Memphis shows McCain’s no front-runner Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is destined to find that his love of the Republican Party will be unrequited.
His dismal showing in the recent Nashville straw poll underscores the fact that while he is the Democrats’ and independents’ favorite Republican, he’s not the Republicans’ top choice by a long shot. Twenty years of independence, courage, creativity and conscience will do that for you (as Joe Lieberman is finding out across the aisle).
-snip- (this is the part I posted above)
It’s a shame because McCain and Giuliani are the only two frequently mentioned candidates who could actually get elected and defy the likely disaster the GOP faces in ’08.
Giuliani, for his part, is even less likely than McCain to win the nomination. His pro-choice, pro-gun-control, pro-affirmative-action, pro-gay-rights, pro-immigration positioning is enough to give the party ulcers. The support he now shows in polls he gets just because the party faithful only see him in terms of his splendid 9/11 record.
None of the remaining candidates has a prayer to win the general election, although they are likely party-line enough to win the nomination. But their long histories of party loyalty and fealty to the right-wing agenda will do little to attract the swing voters of the next election: Hispanics and women.
http://hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/Comment/DickMorris/031506.html