Will Clark get stronger if other candidates drop out?

[mot78]

I think a reason why Dean is leading in polls is because his opponents are evenly splitting voters who would otherwise vote for the "anti-Dean". Hypathetically, if we take out just Kerry and Gephardt, wouldn't Clark's support increase?

[JohnLocke]

1. And Edwards.

[mot78]

3. Yeah, especially in SC

[Padraig18]

2. No one knows.

I doubt it would increase enough to overcome his deficit situation, frankly.

[Hawkeye-X]

4. Answer: no

I've heard a lot of praise from other candidates (other than the mainstream ones, excluding Clark) on Dean. It will only make Dean much stronger.

Hawkeye-X

[maddezmom]

5. only time will tell

It probably depends on when they drop out and how much mud slinging occurs between now and then.

[gulliver]

6. Yes. Look at two ongoing polls here at DU.

With all candidates included, Clark does not fare as well as Dean. Usually he ends up winning, but it is by a lesser margin than when it is a head-to-head poll with just Clark and Dean.

Here is a poll with all nine.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=25112

Here is the poll with just Clark and Dean
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=24760

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

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[Padraig18]

10. Are you calling me deceitful?

:grr:

[Padraig18]

11. Kick

:grr:

[Padraig18]

12. Well? Answer me!

:grr:

[Scott Lee]

21. Goodness, Padraig.....he seems to have lost his nerve!

[Padraig18]

27. Amazing, isn't it?

:P

[maddezmom]

8. good point

but I'm not sure it proves or disproves anything, we are a different breed here at DU than the rest of the population. But I like the odds when it's just the two. :)

[oasis]

14. thanks. I missed that poll.

[Padraig18]

15. You missed the 'deceptive' poll that includes all 9 candidates?

:eyes;

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. A friendly suggestion

I am sensitive to the negative reaction some Dean supporters have to the phrase "Anti-Dean". I imagine you use it to mean whoever other than Dean emerges as the most serious alternative to him. You might consider editing your text to say "Dean Alternative" instead. I'm on a kik of late to help chill out some of the raving animostity that is springing up around here. It's a good will gesture.

As to your point, I think the answer is yes. This will start happening naturally even without formal withdrawals. Money is tight for some of the candidates, and the campaign gets more expensive as it heads into more and bigger states. Gephardt and Kerry have to make convincing enough showings the first two weeds to compete well into the third. Same for Lieberman and Edwards.

[Scott Lee]

13. Not necessarily.

There is no evidence I've seen that the current Kerry, Gephardt or Lieberman supporters are merely opponents of Howard Dean. I believe the majority of them will make a measured decision as to who to support when the Kerry Gephardt and Lieberman campaigns collapse.

Then again, I still believe in things like common decency and the rule of law and other outdated concepts, so....who can say....

[poskonig]

16. The CW says yes.

If Dean wins decisively over Kerry and Gephardt, their supporters would probably be more inclined to join Clark. My experience at DU seems to confirm this. It all depends on how fast Kerry and Gep go down -- if they survive for a while and the so-called "establishment" vote remains divided, Dean's odds do improve.

Edit: I'd also note that if Dean is upset in either IA and/or NH, Clark's odds decrease dramatically, since someone else will be the anti-Dean in such a scenario.

[TexasPatriot]

17. i think there's a money issue

if Gephardt does well in Iowa it doesnt necessarily translate to suriving past Missouri. The other problem is that any of those delegates that might be aligned by that point can be encouraged to move in another direction. This would be the leverage the other campaigns might have going into Boston.

I think that the media has it in their interest to create a 2 horse race (it's all about the ratings afterall) - so I expect them to ordain someone as the Dean Alternative sooner rather than later. Considering some of the struggles the Dean campaign continues to have against a larger field, I think he'll do well as the field shrinks, but I think that some of his existing support will churn due to its tenuous nature. Right now, a good bit of the Dean support is the same as any of the others - the diehard activists. The rest of the support is pretty waffly. Most of the other candidates dont have a lot of waffly support (except Lieberman, as he's bringing a lot of name recognition to the table). I think that gains Dean makes in voters coming in will be offset by Dean supporters moving to an alternative that is ordained viable.

When we get to Iowa it's going to get really interesting.

[poskonig]

18. Clark, however, needs to move on Feb 3rd.

If Gephardt or Kerry become the anti-Dean (or the "Dean alternative" if we want to be pretty and pc about it) before then, Clark's campaign would be scr... I mean "tactically disadvantaged." :P

[TexasPatriot]

19. agreed

tactically, strategically, and monetarily disadvantaged. I think scr... might be ok at that point (so long as we're using the adjective and not the act). ;)

[Bucky]

22. Gep and the big Mo

if Gephardt does well in Iowa it doesnt necessarily translate to suriving past Missouri

But if he does okay enough in Iowa to not drop out, then he certainly will be around when Missouri votes. In Missouri Gep staying in hurts Clark more than Dean. I'm not sure about other states, but certainly there the Clark campaign will be hurt if the favorite son doesn't drop. Gep's supporters, more than anyone else's, are gonna go to Clark. He's been working the anti-Dean angle harder than anyone else and that sort of thing is bound to rub off on his followers.

[Padraig18]

20. 'Deception' kick

:eyes:

[Bucky]

23. Most voters will go for frontrunner if their guy drops out

There's an "anti-Dean" vibe among some of the hard core activists, but not among all of them and certainly not among rank and file Democratic voters. The longer candidates' supporters find themselves working against Dean, the more likely they are to go to someone besided Dean when their candidate finally drops out.

[mouse7]

24. Clark is the favorite if the other 8 candidate drop out.

Any more questions, feel free to share them anytime.

[JohnKleeb]

25. I wont go to Clark should my guy drop out

I really don't know who I would, like it was Kerry now I am not sure.

[TSIAS]

26. If it happened now, it would make a big difference

If 7 candidates dropped out and pledged their support to a single candidate, it would be a big deal. If they drop out before 2/3, it would probably have an impact.

I'm just not sure I see a lot of them dropping out. Kerry more and more looks like he's in it for a while. I doubt Edwards and Lieberman will be out before South Carolina. I'll bet Braun drops out earlier, but I'm not sure about Kucinich and Sharpton.

[Name removed]

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[MoonRiver]

29. Yes, and Clark's been playing his cards right by not going

on the attack. Supporters of the drop-outs won't feel as bitter toward Clark as Dean, who has been vicious to almost all of the candidates. Plus, I suspect he'll get endorsements from Kerry, Sharpton, and maybe Edwards.

[Padraig18]

30. You think SENATOR Kerry will endorse Clark?

He didn't have balls enough to oppose the IWR, so what evidence is there that he'd be willing to have enough balls to endorse Clark? Gov. Dean might still win, and that could be VERY unpleasant for Senator Kerry with President Dean in the White House.

I don't think Kerry has a set that big, frankly.

[mikehiggins]

32. I doubt Kerry worries about what might happen if Dean wins

I doubt Kerry beleives Dean can win the general election.

Senator Kerry would probably have no trouble endorsing General Clark if the choice came to Clark vs Dean.

More likely he'd simply sit it out for the rest of the trip and see how things pan out at the convention. There is still a good deal of support for Kerry among the establishment Democrats and I think if a movement to derail Dean were to coalesce at the convention it would look to him rather than Clark.

Just my opinion.

[RetroLounge]

31. Probably a bit. But I think Dean will also.

and using DU polls as evidence seems a bit silly.

Of course someone will get those votes.

No evidence, really, of who, as there are way too many variables, too much time between then and now to really say.

(or since I'm a Dean supporter, maybe I'm being deceptive...)

[quaker bill]

33. It seems likely

that it could be too late to matter. Remember, the primary season was intentionally compressed and frontloaded to make it as difficult as possible for someone to gain momentum through the process.

I expect that Clark will gain some on the margin, but it will already have to be fairly close to matter.