and some great analysis by Matt Singer of the Left in the West Blog.
http://leftinthewest.com/index.php/2006/03/24/filing-deadline-shape-of-the-races/#more-2705Federal Filings — Conrad Burns faces multiple challengers in the Republican primary — Bob Kelleher, Daniel Lloyd Neste Huffman, and Bob Keenan — and the Democratic primary is now up to five candidates (up from what we thought was a field of three only weeks ago) — Jon Tester, John Morrison, Paul Richards, Robert Candee (lost to Steve Kelly in the U.S. House primary in ‘02), and Kenneth Marcure (an expat living in Japan). Also, we’ve got Stan Jones filing as the infamous ‘Blue’ Libertarian in the race. Speaking of Libertarians, Mike Fellows is back in the U.S. House race and Monica Lindeen pulled a primary opponent by the name of Eric Gunderson. Prediction: Burns, Rehberg, and Lindeen win their primaries. Democratic Senate primary is still won by Tester or Morrison. Burns gets no more than 75% of the vote in the Republican primary.
Clerk of Court — In what should probably be a sleeper campaign, Ed Smith (D), the incumbent Clerk of Court — a man who is by all accounts good at what he does — faces a primary challenge from Ed Caplis. Two third-party candidates are running in the general. The Constitution Party seems to have realized the value of running someone in a non-competitive statewide race as a means of maintaining ballot status. Prediction: Ed Smith wins primary and general.
Public Service Commission #1 — Incumbent PSC member Greg Jergeson (D-Chinook) looks likely to hold this seat that holds an historic curse for Democrats. But the task should be easy for Jergeson — he has no opponent.
Public Service Commission #5 — On the Democratic side, Ken Toole is already running and running hard. He’s got a boost up from the fact that no one in this state has been a louder or more vociferous advocate for consumers when it comes to energy issues. There has been some speculation that someone with Toole’s history will get himself in trouble in the Flathead. I’d agree if he was running for the office of Tax Collector. He’s not. He’s running to regulate utilities…and even hardcore conservative voters aren’t huge fans of utility companies. Meanwhile, the Republican side has gotten quite interesting. Things briefly appeared that Republicans had found their man in former state senator and U.S. Senate candidate Mike Taylor. But perhaps memories of ‘02 and Taylor’s flakiness rose up, as he faces a five-way primary for the seat. That’ll be interesting to watch. Prediction: Reublican primary is a toss-up. Toole wins the general.
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