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unlawflcombatnt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 05:15 PM
Original message
Housing Market Declining Rapidly
Edited on Sat Mar-25-06 05:45 PM by unlawflcombatnt
HOUSING MARKET DECLINING RAPIDLY

Friday's New Home Sales report added further evidence that the housing market is declining. Monthly New Home sales showed the biggest decline in 9 years. The decline in New Home Sales was larger than the real estate mythologists predicted. The annualized New Home Sales rate declined 10.5% during the last month. (Technically, if 0 new homes had been sold during the last month, the annualized sales rate would have only declined 1/12th, or 8.3%. So some previously sold homes must have become "un-sold.") January's number was also revised downward. Had January's number not been revised, the decline would have been 12.5%. The annual New Home Sales rate has declined 21% since July. Median annual prices also declined to a -2.9% annualized rate of increase. Inventories increased from 5.3 months' worth to 6.3 months' worth in February.

Since October's peak in New Home Sales of 1.345 million/year, the rate has declined to 1.080 million/year. Unsold inventories of New Homes have risen 4 of the last 5 months, from 4.5 months' worth in October to 6.3 months' worth in February. The unsold inventory of New Homes is the highest in 10 years according to Briefing.com Over the past year, there has been a 24% increase in New Homes on the market, according to CNN Money.

Also, according to CNN Money, the current median price for a new home is now $230,400. This is down $6,900 from February 2005. In addition, the current median New Home Price is down 5.5% from October's $243,900.

In some areas the decline was much larger. In the West, the 1-month decline in the annualized New Home Sales rate was 30%, declining from 357,000/year to 252,000/year. In the West, the annual New Home Sales rate has declined 49% from its October peak of 410,000/year. This information can be found at Briefing.com New Home Sales

EXISTING HOME SALES

The Existing Home Sales number from Thursday, March 23rd, was reported with unjustified optimism. The seasonally adjusted sales rate actually declined from the previous year. February 2006's annualized rate was 6.190 million/year, marking a -0.3% change from February 2005's, 6.930 million/year rate. Meanwhile, Existing home inventories INCREASED 5.2% over the last month, and increased 30.2% over the last year. Below are graphs from HoweStreet.com showing these changes.




Once again, the declining numbers are even more extreme in the West, especially in California. Existing Home Sales dropped 15.5% from the same period 1 year ago. The inventory of unsold Existing Homes in California is now 6.7 months' worth, compared to 3.2 months' worth a year ago (from the Orange County Register.) In Orange County, California, there are currently 10.4 months' worth of unsold inventory of Existing Homes, compared to 5.7 months' worth a year ago. The median price of existing homes in California declined 2.9% from January 2006.

The Mortgage Bankers' Association purchase index also declined dramatically. The 4-week Purchase Index moving average has declined from 470 in October to 401.5 at present.

In summary, both New and Existing Home Sales are declining, with New Home Sales declining much more. Meanwhile, inventories are rising rapidly in both New and Existing Homes. The biggest inventory increases and sales declines are in bubble areas, especially California. Prices are actually declining in some areas, most notably Southern California. Housing Starts actually increased over the last month, which will increase inventories even further, and put further downward pressure on home prices.

The Housing Bubble is definitely deflating, and appears to be deflating even faster than many predicted.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriots' Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."





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benburch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 05:18 PM
Response to Original message
1. You cannot burn the candle at both ends forever.
And we have been living on borrowed money both as people and as a nation since Ronald Reagan was President.
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chaumont58 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
2. To show how crazy it has been
The house I bought in May, 1972, and paid $29,250 for, was said to be valued at $696,600, according to a web site called zillow.com. I sold the house in 1997 for a huge profit for me, but no where near almost $700,000. Enough is enough. Maybe some sanity has returned.
BTW, the house is in Ventura County, Ca.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. The one I bought in a bad neighborhood
(it's called the War Zone) in a central New Mexican city for $75,000 ten years ago is now rated--as is--at $170,000. This is crazy. Yes, this area is slowly coming back from two decades as rental housing and drug gang central, but please! This place is a 2 bedroom, one bath, eat in kitchen crackerbox. Who are these people trying to kid?

The housing bubble will need to lose a LOT of air before we get back to anyting approaching sanity.

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cornermouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
3. What, primarily, do the markjority of people tend to invest
other than the stock market?

Property? Gold?
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msongs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. the did you know that a house you live in is NOT an asset? nt
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cornermouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. The house you live in is a long term investment.
And it provides a roof over your head at the same time. Unless you're prepared to live in a tent or your car?

Rent is a treadmill going nowhere. You might as well take the green stuff and set a match to it as pay rent. The end result is the same.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. If you can buy for what you pay in rent, then buy
because you'll get that mortgage interest deduction for the first years, and that will make the big difference. Then, even if the bottom falls out of the market and you have to walk away from a foreclosure when you're in steeply negative numbers on your mortgage, you will still be ahead of the game.

My house was about 20% over most apartment rent and far below what I'd have paid to rent a comparable house. It quickly dived below apartment rent, plus gave me that all important mortgage interest deduction.

The market's going to have to completely bust to hurt me now.
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unlawflcombatnt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Rent vs. Mortgage
That's been pretty sound advice historically.

In Southern California, however, equivalent rents are less than 1/2 average monthly mortgage payments. So based on that advice, it's better to rent in Southern California at the present.
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cornermouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Okay.
Around here, if you rent, you're basically paying the same for rent that you'd be paying for house payments. The down payment is the real stumbling block.
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Jamison Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #14
39. No thanks to home-ownership, I'll continue to rent.
I'll rent until prices drop drastically. Actually, I'd almost be happy renting forever. Right now I rent a 1-bedroom apt. that's decent for $500 a month. In my area the cheapest home would cost me a minimum of $1,000/month for mortgage even on an interest-only loan. :crazy:

When I say "cheapest" home, I'm talking about something like a 2-bed, 1 bath, no garage, 900 sq. ft. home that's 50 years old and in need of serious repair. No thanks, my apartment building is only 10 years old or and is kept in good shape. If my heater/ac unit goes out, I don't have to pay $2,000 to replace it, the landlord replaces it at no cost to me. Same thing if some other expensive thing like a dishwasher breaks.

One last point here, in my area the average $300,000 homeowner pays over $15,000 a year on property taxes. That's another insane expense I don't have to worry about.
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Bush_Eats_Beef Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. It's true in the Bay Area too.
Using any of the on-line "mortgage calculators," my rent is EXACTLY 1/2 the amount of a mortgage payment. "Buy, don't rent" does NOT work in this part of the country.
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Gormy Cuss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. Yes, it's always worth checking those calculators in high cost markets
There are calculators out there for the "buy vs. rent" decision too although I don't know of one online. I saved a fortune by staying out of the Boston market when it was overheated in the 1980s because my rent was less than half of the net cost of owning a crappy one bedroom condo in a converted apartment building in a crappy neighborhood. I'm no genius, I just ran the numbers and they never made sense.

With the money that I wasn't spending on an overpriced condo I saved and earned enough so that when I did buy a few years after the market corrected, I was able to get a house with a healthy down payment (no mortgage insurance) and still not be house poor. Meanwhile some of my same salary colleagues were stuck with crappy properties that had dropped so low in value that they would have to eat a loss if they sold. Two of them held on for eight years waiting for the value to come back.

Sometimes paying rent really is the sounder move.

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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Don't forget to factor in property taxes. Those have been rising a lot
Esp. since states are having to make up for less money coming from the Federal gov't.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #17
25. I should have specified the type of mortgage payment
that covers principal, interest, taxes, and insurance, as mine does.

Run those numbers. If it's close to rental prices, then you're probably OK to buy. Like I said, even if you're foreclosed and have to walk away, that mortgage interest deduction will make you come out a little ahead.

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sendero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #8
41. Buying a home..
.... to live in is one of the best financial decisions a person can make.

Buying way more house than you need, or can afford, is not such a wise decision.

The housing market has been infested with speculators operating on cheap (low interest) money offered with little eye toward creditworthiness.

This is a recipe for disaster, and it's coming.
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unlawflcombatnt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 07:13 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. Gold
An increasing number of people are investing in gold. The price of gold has increased over 100% since Bush stole his first election. The price has increased over 30% in the last year. The price will probably increase further, especially when the downward trend of the housing market becomes more apparent.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriots' Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #9
31. A really naive question about gold --
I cannot come close to buying 'precious metal mutual funds' because I don't have the starter amount to open an account.

Buy gold -- could that be as simple as buying good quality gold jewelry at the local pawn shop and holding it. If the dollar crashes BIG would I be better off holding/selling gold jewelry?

:shrug:
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Gormy Cuss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
4. It drives me crazy when there is focus on only the most recent month
Edited on Sat Mar-25-06 05:47 PM by Gormy Cuss
"Look! sales are up! Everything's great!" "Look! sales are down! Worry!"
The year-to-year trend for existing home sales is showing a clear deflation of the market exuberance, and in some cases it is even lowering prices. I doubt that there will be many areas that are seller's markets by the end of the year.

I live in the strongest real estate market in California and the most noticeable change in the last six months has been a substantial increase in time on market, from an average of about 3 weeks to 12. Sales are generally at or within 5% of asking with few reductions. This is a market where two years ago if you paused to sneeze you risked losing a bidding war so it's a dramatic, but not traumatic, change -- so far.
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unlawflcombatnt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #4
13. Long Term
You've made a good point. That's why I tried to include some longer term statistics. The trend is down, with inventory increases ahead of price declines.
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BlueStateBlue Donating Member (470 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 06:48 PM
Response to Original message
6. Northern NJ is really sucking wind!
Here's a link to a very informative site, lots of actual data from the local mls.

http://nnjbubble.blogspot.com/
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jwirr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 07:09 PM
Response to Original message
7. Oh there is a market - many of us would like to own our own
home or just have a place to live - but there is not money to play in their ballpark.
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Bush_Eats_Beef Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 08:17 PM
Response to Original message
15. Median home price in Silicon Valley CA is still $750K...
...for two-bedroom single-family homes that are often in questionable neighborhoods, have less square footage than a one bedroom apartment, and carry the "fixer-upper" label like it's some damn kind of badge of honor.

NEW home sales are down here...EXISTING home sales have INCREASED.
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bedpanartist Donating Member (915 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. My hometown is fucking apocalyptic
Over 3,000 abandoned homes, with characters everywhere who look like they were culled from "Escape from New York," walking the streets like stunned meth zombies trying their best to inhale the new post-industrialism, but ending up choking every time.

We have the highest foreclosure rate in the United States.

Dayton, Ohio led America to its great industrialist heights. It is also leading America in a different way now - in post-industrial implosion. Nothing works here and even good people have to pack heat and own pit bulls.
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Neil Lisst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 09:05 PM
Response to Original message
18. As always, I agree with almost everything you write.
I've been saying it for 6 months - that the real estate market had peaked and was in decline.

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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 10:13 PM
Response to Original message
21. Gee, that's funny, in California new housing sales in 2/06 are UP 9.5%
Edited on Sat Mar-25-06 10:16 PM by Capn Sunshine
It's all in this story in today's business section. But that's the difference between a "bubble" and legitimate supply and demand. When supply catches up with demand, things slow down. Note that the strory didn't say "NO ONE bought a house inthe Northeast last month", just that it's down from last years red-hot pace.

Things aren't as desperate as some make out, but when Wall Street will do anything to get that "hot money" back into the market, you see all kinds of stuff in the news.
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unlawflcombatnt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #21
24. Southern California
It does appear from the information posted in the article that February New Home Sales were up over January. However, the numbers involved were pretty small. The increase in New Home Sales was 430 homes from January's 4,550 to February's 4,980.

However, it also says that "the Southland's February inventory of unsold homes was up 80% from a year earlier." Apparently they're being built faster than they can be sold, which puts downward pressure on prices. Below is price graph of median prices for Southern California homes.


Home prices have essentially stopped increasing in Southern California, and are actually declining in some areas.
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hippiechick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 10:46 PM
Response to Original message
22. Median Price $230k ??? JEBUS !!
:wow: Where do the people who can afford THAT work ?!?!?!

I'm reverting to ramen noodles and corn dogs just to buy a house listed at $75k !!!
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xkenx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-25-06 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
23. Flame away, if you will, but
1. Housing is NOT like the stock market. Stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. are paper investments. If someone thinks that market is sucking, or if they are in financial trouble and need cash, they can unload part or all of their holdings with a phone call or a few mouse clicks. That is why the stock market can undergo wild fluctuations in a short time. If someone is in financial trouble, THE VERY LAST THING THEY WILL GIVE UP IS THEIR HOME, because everyone needs shelter. They will give up the dinners out, the vacations, the car purchase, the kids' private school or college, even new clothing, before they give up their home.

2. The numbers of people who took out mortgages with temporarily low rates who get burned will be fairly low. Here's why. Many of those people did so to buy more house, but with great confidence that their income will be much higher when their payments go up. Of those people who actually get into enough trouble to have to unload their home and go rent somewhere, only a relatively small percentage of them will have to walk away from the home beacuse they are "upside down." (owe more than the home is worth). Anyone who bought before the very last few months have enough equity to sell and walk away with cash. ANYONE can sell if they need to if they have equity by simply putting the house on the market at a currently competitive price. Even in a slow market, if there is only one buyer for every 10 houses(an outrageously bad market), then I can sell if I have the house that is priced best out of the other nine houses like mine.

3. I have been a "student of the game" for the past 28 years. Here's what I've discovered about housing prices:
a. Interest rates are only marginal to the process (I've seen 15% annual appreciation with fixed rates at 12%) I've seen falling prices with falling interest rates.
b. The economy is only marginal to the process. When the economy is booming, maybe 96% of people are working. When the economy sucks, over 90% of the people are working (granted that some people are nervous). Still we're not talking about huge differences.
c. Real estate prices are mostly about supply and demand. Demand is less variable than most people think. There is a "base" market of people who really need to buy and/or sell (marriage, divorce, birth, death, job ups, downs, and transfers, upsizing, downsizing, sick of renting, sick of owning, etc.) Supply has been exceptionally low the last few years, partly because low rates have stimulated buying, partly because of demographics (just plain more boomers and boomers' children, more immigrants, just not enough homes being built to satisfy population increases/family formations). Wouldn't YOU expect to get more for anything you are selling if you know there isn't much like what you are selling and a pretty good number of people interested in buying it? I have been able to predict next year's home price changes with pretty decent accuracy SIMPLY by knowing this year's supply. All other factors are relatively small by comparison.

CONCLUSION: When you read that supply is up 50% or more, that is because supply has been pathetically low, so modest increases in numbers are large percentage increases. But supply is still well below normal in most places.(If you've been starving on 300 calories a day, getting 50% more calories helps a little, but you're still pretty hungry). What is happening is that the RATE of price appreciation is gradually slowing as supply increases. Around here, roughly 6 months supply is normal. The past few years supply has been running more like only 2-3 months. It will take time to build up the supply to normal (which still sees price increases around the economy's inflation rate), and even more time to favor buyers in order for prices to decline. That won't happen from demographics; it could happen down the road from some combination of recession and higher interest rates. Just not very quickly. Sort of like a tiny leak in your tire which you don't notice for some time. Historically, housing has outperformed the stock market every decade in the past 10, except for one. Most people seem to think interest rates will be higher. A 1% increase in rates (say 6.5% to 7.5%) will boost payments about 11%. Nasty, huh? To make the payments the same, home prices would have to go down 11%. Do you want to bet on that one by waiting? More likely you'd have the double whammy of somewhat higher prices AND higher interest rates. The many many people who really want to buy will meet a broker like me, or consult with a bank or mortgage broker, and discover that their income will only buy a lower priced home than this year. So they will buy a little less square footage or a different location than they figured this year, but buy they will. I had the identical conversations when fixed rates were 12%. They go and buy what and where they can afford. The goal of home ownership in this country has never been higher. It is the American Dream.



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Porcupine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 01:19 AM
Response to Reply #23
26. Housing REPLACED the stock market as a sink for excess capitol
Disclosure: I work for a property management company in N. California.

Many of our clients are proffesionals with equity in existing housing that they are converting to down payments on NEW housing supplemented by their investment budget. They are buying buildings on a serial basis and flipping them repeatedly in order to buy more buildings. Because new buildings do not have established vacancy rates they can purchase them on better terms than existing buildings.

In short there is a perverse economic incentive for investors to purchase new housing stock and sell it in a few years. They do this repeatedly. I have had investors tell me that they are renting the buildings ONLY because they cannot insure them if they are not occcupied or placed on the rental market.

Meanwhile much of the local housing stock sits empty. I know of whole buildings standing empty because the owners refuse to charge market rate rents for the apartments. Meanwhile brand new buildings are rented for 1/2 to 3/4 of the PITI the owner paid for them and owners are paying management fees and maintenance costs.

Most importantly; the owners of these properties are global. When the American housing market crashes the effects will be global.
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unlawflcombatnt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 03:32 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Empty Housing Stock
Porcupine,

Thanks for your input. I'd be curious to find out how many homes in California are effectively empty because the owner doesn't want to rent for the going rate or sell it for the steadily decreasing price he can get. I know of at least 2 in my own general area that are vacant. In reality, there are probably 10 times that many that I'm not aware of.

Also, amen to your post on immigration.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriots' Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."
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Neil Lisst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #27
30. I'm aware of a house just purchased in west Houston
The prior owner had almost $800 grand in the home, and was relocated by the big oil company he worked for, so they bought it, as they often do in such circumstances. It sat on the market for 18 months before selling for barely $600K.

I'm aware of a second home sale in another part of greater Houston in which the owner took a $100K hit in the sale of his home for a little over half a million.

These are two anectodal items which merely demonstrate that the high end homes in the Houston area are not doing well. That's usually a harbinger.
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Neil Lisst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #23
29. Sorry, but the fluctuations in real estate are as wild as the stock market
Edited on Sun Mar-26-06 08:42 AM by Neil Lisst
There are booms and busts every decade or so in real estate, with variations for regional events.

Contrary to your statement, people give up houses in droves once their payments are significantly higher than rentals for similar homes.

When jobs leave the country, when real take-home pay diminishes, when energy costs are excalating much faster than the rate of inflation, the marginal homeowner is the one who will lose his home.

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joeprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 08:28 AM
Response to Original message
28. There are some things going on that point to the big bust
I saw where foreclosures are way up. If interest rates keep going up, which they will, the bubble will burst. This guy lays out a strong case for the coming California bust.

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

People in Palo Alto are averaging 10X their salary in housing costs. Combine that with no down and ARM's that will continue to go up and you have disaster. Similar trends are occurring around the country. People are buying way above their means. The general rule was to buy a house 2-2.5 times your salary. Now people are going way beyond that.
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #28
32. "people averaging 10x their salary in housing costs"... this is misleading
the median house price in palo alto is 10x the median income in palo alto.

this does NOT say that the median income OF PEOPLE WHO BUY HOUSES is 1/10th of THEIR house price.

no banker, not even in palo alto, is going to make a mortgage on a $1,000,000 home to someone making $100,000/yr and putting 20% down, at 6% interest, leaving him to pay about $57,000/yr on the mortgage alone on a $100,000 income.


this says a lot more about income distribution in palo alto than it does about the housing market.
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spooky3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #32
36. don't forget about large down payment effects
If you sold a first home for a large profit, say $500K, then you can use that, plus any other savings, toward a hefty down payment toward a million dollar house. You then may be able to afford it even if you make $100K per year, especially if you take one of the riskier loans. The large # of move-up buyers with big profits in their pockets is one of the factors propping up the hot market around Washington DC.
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #36
37. except that that's not a risk factor
if someone with a $100,000/yr salary can put 50% down on a $1,000,000 home, that poses no great risk for the banker. nor is the homeowner in a terrible position with a much more manageable $500,000 mortgage, with the option of taking out a home equity line to further assist with any cashflow problems.

it may be a bad investment if the market declines, but with 50% equity, there little risk of foreclosure or having to move.
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spooky3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. that was not my argument
Edited on Sun Mar-26-06 01:32 PM by spooky3
I was just responding to the implication in a prior post that a $100000 salary earner could not afford a $1 million home. In fact some (many?) of them can, and they are a major reason why prices are going up. People sometimes assume that buyers are all first timers or people with only 20% down, but there are many buyers in high cost markets out there who are move up buyers who have sold other houses and have a lot of cash to invest in their next house. It would be interesting to see what % of the market these people are.

to be more specific:

"no banker, not even in palo alto, is going to make a mortgage on a $1,000,000 home to someone making $100,000/yr and putting 20% down, at 6% interest, leaving him to pay about $57,000/yr on the mortgage alone on a $100,000 income."

That's true if the mortgage is for 80%, as you say. But there are many $100000/year buyers of $1 million homes who have a lot more to put down than 20%. My point is that when people are puzzling about how can it possibly be that people continue to buy houses at these prices when incomes have not kept up, is that *to an extent* they are able to do it because of profits from houses they sold. Obviously, their incomes ultimately impose limits, since they still have to pay the balance of the home's cost. There are also people out there who have inherited houses or other assets so they can afford housing well beyond what their salaries suggest they can afford.
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joeprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #32
43. Maybe but there are other indicators that prove my point.
If you compare indexes that look at PITI as a % of monthly income, the west coast is way above the national average. Those are real indisputable numbers that suggest that people in California could be in big trouble if prices decline.
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joeprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-27-06 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #32
44. "the median house price in palo alto is 10x the median income in palo alto
that is what I said but in a different way

If the median income in Palo Alto is 70K then the median home price is 700K. It is that simple. I should not have said average because that implies mean when median is really the statistic used.
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-27-06 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #44
46. my point is not so much median vs. mean as relevant population
my point is that income in palo alto could be weighted down by non-homeowners (e.g., stanford university students earning maybe $3,000/yr. on work/study?), when the really relevant question is what is the income of homeowners.

i see from your earlier post that there are other statistics that show that west coast homeowners are more dangerously legeraged (mortgage as a percentage of income). if so, my point is academic.
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unlawflcombatnt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-29-06 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #28
47. General Rules
That's a tremendous fraction of one's income to be paying for a home. Another general rule is that mortgage payments shouldn't be more than 30% of monthly income. I don't know how that compares with 10x of their salary on housing costs. But I suspect it comes out to a lot more than 30% of monthly income.
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AndyA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 10:30 AM
Response to Original message
33. America's "Roman Holiday" is about to end
The days of reckless spending and borrowing are coming to an end. We've reached the end of the road. Our credit cards are maxxed out, higher credit limits have been given over and over to the point where it's just not responsible to keep raising them. We've borrowed against the equity in our homes, cleaned out our savings accounts, spent money like fools at Wal-Mart, which has done wonders for China's economy, but has killed America's economy.

We've bought thirsty SUVs, not thought about what the future holds, lost sight of the American dream, and it's all about to come crashing down. We can hardly blame ourselves, after all, our great leader, George W. Bush, has told us how great everything is. In fact, he's encouraged this behavior. Of course, the difference is, he's so wealthy he won't be hurt no matter what happens.

For his next act, he's gonna have to pull a Rabbit out of his butt, because even with a hat and a wand, he'll need something more to create enough magic to spin his way out of this one.

The American economy is bigger than George Bush, and he has lost the ability to control it. When it comes down, it will come down hard. And it will take George Bush with it. He will be lucky to have double digit approval ratings. Unfortunately, the rest of us will be taken down at the same time.

The price we pay will be too high, but it just might be the only way to expose this man's irresponsible and reckless policies. When the Great Depression II hits, it will be impossible for him to tell us how wonderful things are, and it will be blatantly clear that the Republicans haven't done such a hot job of running things.

Then, America will clean house! Finally.
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gizmo1979 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 10:33 AM
Response to Original message
34. You don't have to tell me.
I work making high end bathroom fixtures and we haven't had squat for work all year it's getting scary.
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ms liberty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
35. Reading this, and all the prior comments...
I live in a rural county in NC, and we've been hit heavily by (mainly) textiles and furniture manufacturing moving to China. Our local weekly newspaper has had at least 8 - 12 foreclosures listed every week for about the last 4 years. The houses and land in our area are sitting on the market for quite a while before selling - or just being taken off the market entirely. The market is not good, and it's not just because of over-inflated prices; the market is a bit over-inflated here, but not like it is in the larger metro areas.

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unlawflcombatnt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #35
42. North Carolina
You've described an interesting situation in the housing market, where the cause of overvaluation differs from some other areas.

It's a general "fundamental" that home prices should rise and fall with employment and income. In California prices have skyrocketed without a corresponding increase in employment or income. In contrast, it sounds like prices have risen far less, but the income/employment necessary to sustain them has declined drastically.

However, the same general rule seems to be in effect. If price increases are greater than employment/income increases, prices will eventually come down. Prices can't indefinitely rise more than buyers' ability to pay those prices. Eventually declining affordability will bring prices down, or at least end price appreciation.
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earth mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-26-06 02:31 PM
Response to Original message
40. K & R! nt
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redacted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-27-06 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
45. The house for sale across the street from us:
It's a basic McRanch home. Nothing special 3 bdr, 2 baths. The owner bragged that it was appraised last summer at $750,000. It's been on sale three months, now the "reduced" sign is out front, there are flyers outside with the headline "Huge Price Reduction" and the asking price is down to $640,000.

They keep running open houses on weekends but now nobody shows up. They've also started making lots of cosmetic improvements like a new front door, painted garage door, cleaned carpets etc. The lights are always on inside and and out and the draperies are open. But nothing seems to work for these folks.

Location: Sonoma County, CA.
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