Arizona and Nevada Senate seats competitive?

[espera17]

Anyone have some good info on the Arizona and Nevada senat races? http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com doesn't seem to think they are and I was wondering if anyone had info to the contrary.

[NMDemDist2]

1. in AZ Pederson is well funded and fairly conservative

so who knows :shrug: the polls show Kyl with a 20 point lead at this point

[espera17]

8. date of that poll?

when was that poll conducted?
http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com/

[NMDemDist2]

9. December '05 , wish it was better, and AZ CD-3 may heat up

www.paineforcongress.org

[wakeme2008]

2. check Ohio

"Senate: Republican Senator Mike DeWine is getting pulled down to the sea floor by anchor Bob Taft, who is leading the Republican demise in Ohio. However, with a decline by Congressman Timothy Ryan for the Democratic nomination, this seat is less likely to fall into Democratic hands. Interestingly, frontrunner Paul Hackett has been pressured out of the race. While Hackett was leading DeWine in the polls, Sherrod Brown is not. As of now, the Democrats really blew their chances of a great pickup opportunity. Congressman Sherrod Brown is trailing DeWine by a staggering 37%-46%, 11 percentage points. DeWine has an enormous fundraising advantage as well. I am tempted to call this a weak retention, but because of the shambles the Ohio GOP is in right now this is a VERY WEAK RETENTION for the Republicans."

[mom cat]

4. The DLC accomplished it's mission of "no change" again!

[espera17]

6. stronghanded hackett

if brown loses the Democratic party has no one to blame but itself.
http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com

[enlightenment]

3. Some info here -- keeping in mind that its the WP --

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/02/nevada_senate_goodman_vs_ensig.html

[Punkingal]

5. I don't think Nevada is competitive...

I live there part of the time, and Ensign is very popular. Personally, I can't stand him, but he does respond when contacted with very nice letters, although his positions are bullshit. His staff is also very polite when you call. He has a good organization, and as much as I would like him to be defeated, I don't think he will be.

There was a nice rumor (from a Democratic perspective) that his wife had caught him cheating, and was not going to allow him to run again, but I haven't heard that he isn't running, so that must have just been wishful thinking.

[espera17]

7. bummer

that would be great news, though unfortunate for him
http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com/

[TankLV]

15. I think it's a lot more competitive than it has been, but it's gonna be a

tough road to travel.

Incumbancy has too many advantages here.

And Reid secrectly supports him and they are both part of the "old boy" (literally) network.

But Jack Carter is a strong candidate - stronger than we've had in a long time.

We shall see.

It hasn't been this competitive in a long time - & I've lived here for over 10 years now - exclusively.

[Punkingal]

17. Well, thanks for mentioning Harry's secret support....

So many people are in denial about Reid. The truth is, I expect him to only give lip service to supporting Carter. He doesn't want any competition in his stranglehold on Nevada Democratic politics. I sure hope Carter wins. I wonder if he will kowtow to Harry if he does? I hope not.

[Ignacio Upton]

18. He doesn't "support" Ensign

But I think that he's trying not to do to him what Frist did to Daschle in 2004 by campaigning against him. Ensign almost beat Reid in 1998, and Reid won by only 500+ votes, so maybe Reid figures that by being nice with Ensign he can keep the Republicans from demonizing him as too partisan (which won't make a difference anyway, but tell Reid that.)

[leyton]

22. Also, I think the tradition is for Senators not to help unseat their

direct colleagues. Typically, majority and minority leaders don't campaign against each other (and what Frist did was highly improper). In general elections, Senators from a state who are from different parties don't always campaign against each other, nor do Senators from the same party campaign against each other in a primary (which is why Santorum endorsed Specter and not Toomey in 2004). We'd like Reid to help out Carter, but the Senate is about courtesy and gentility, which doesn't always yield the results we'd like.

[Lexingtonian]

10. not very promising yet

Nevada has a baseline of 45% Republican and 35% Democratic voters. Arizona is a little worse, 45% and ~30%. Partisanship in the Southwest is strongly racial and fairly racist under the surface, and lots of white retirees and rural people who turn out at high rates in both states have kept both states Republican. Latino voters, American Indians, small urban black communities, and suburban professionals generally white or mixed race are the natural Democratic constituencies, but Democrats have had a hard time negotiating a functional coalition between them because of social issues and internalized oppression, i.e. skepticism/demoralization with historical roots.

As a pattern, Republican Senators and Congressmen in relatively competitive states have had their approval rates fall to their baselines, i.e. swing voters have stepped back from support and want something from them. This has happened to Kyl in Arizona, who is a Bush rubber stamper and has passed himself off as a party line hardliner all along. He's at 45%. It hasn't happened to Ensign, who is doing something that is keeping himself polling at 52% support- I'm not sure what, exactly. He's generally been with Bush and the hardliners, but split off from them on some Nevada issues...i.e. he's been able to use Harry Reid's positions and power as cover. Reid has had an armistice agreement with him of sorts for years. My guess is that armistice will perforce be broken when Washington Republicans get utterly desperate late this year and go to no holds barred dirtiest attacks on Reid. Ensign will be the benefactor or victim of how Nevada voters respond.

I know less about the Democrats running. Pedersen has his own money to run on and did good work as the head of the Arizona Democratic Party the last few years, but he's not getting Arizona Democrats fully behind his candidacy and so there's a lack of interest, unity, energy, effort. It may be the image and message, it may be that he has a real and deep disconnect with the Democratic Latino constituency, or both. If he fixes these he should be polling in the low 40s and the fight for the GOP-disillusioned swing vote Indies- heavily white retirees, my guess- would have begun already. But he's dragging in the mid 30s and there's no news out of his campaign. Maybe he's putting out fires elsewhere in the ADP or having personal or Washington troubles, or something.

Nevada...I think the Democratic idea is a massive ground operation. Republican power is exposed and vulnerable on several levels in the state this year. Democrats control the state House by a good margin and will hold majority easily. Winning majority in the state Senate is just a matter of two or three seats iirc, and winning that is a larger gain in power for Democrats and ability to change the quality of life in the state than just about anything else. Then there's the governor office and the Senate seat. The swing constituency is probably also disillusioned white retirees, as in Arizona. Maybe Jack Carter is a more perfect candidate, good at appealing to these people, than we think. If the Senate race tips, it will fairly late in the year if this is the dynamic.

[espera17]

11. Interesting

Interesting take on the Nevada and Arizona Senate seats. I think that given time Arizona and Nevada will both be swinging hard left. I was unaware of Kyl's low approval numbers. I doubt that Penderson will be able to pull off a win though. His campaign strength is just anemic.

[TankLV]

16. Not entirely correct. The Dem/Repuke makeup is almost 50-50

in the state, with over 50% in Clark County.

In the past, the registration has continually flip-flopped with the Dems and then the Repukes leading in numbers.

Clark County is very fluid. Over 10,000 move here now in any given month, with about 7,000 staying.

It is difficult to keep up with where all the dems live.

I've had to do the grunt work for the past few elections canvassing house-to-house to rectify all the registration lists. It's not an easy thing to do in the middle of summer in the 120's!

This situation has not changed at all as far as I know.

[Lexingtonian]

19. Hmmm

I meant people who side in a reliable partisan way as the 'baseline'. Registration percentages are a different animal, though helpful too.

I thought migration to LV had slowed recently, but those numbers don't look it. I was last in Clarke County seven years ago and fluid was an understatement for what was going on in the outskirts. Thanks for all your work and shoeleather.


I'm curious- is it still mostly white influx from around the Great Basin and Arizona, or are you seeing more Californian Democrats and Hispanics coming to LV these days? I've also been trying to find out more about the upcoming state Senate elections and districts. If you could point me to some of that or have any thoughts or info, that would be great.

[espera17]

21. Arizona competitive?

So the makeup of Arizona is almost split 50-50? What party has been gaining in registration totals?

[Hippo_Tron]

12. It will probably take an October surprise to make one of these competative

If anyone remembers the Kentucky Senate race last year, Jim Bunning's brain started to get eaten by little green men during October. All of a sudden this safe seat was a dead heat.

[espera17]

13. Kyl

I think Kyl is more likely to slip up than Ensign, though Nevada is more hospitable to Democrats.

[blondeatlast]

14. Pederson was the chairmen of the state party and the governor's race

will give him a big boost.

I know Goldwater Republicans and Libertarians who make faces when discussing vile Kyl.

Pederson is also LOADED and decidedly moderate, so much so that I'm supporting his apparent Dem opponent (Terry Goddard) for now, although he is very unlikely to beat Pederson.

If the campaign paints him as a bootlicking Bushbot, with our popular governor pulling moderates over to our side, it can be pulled off, although it won't be easy.

In this state, we really do have to go after the moderate vote, unfortunately, because our Republicans tend to be unmitigated wackjobs (JD Hayworth, Bob Stump, John Kyl, John Shadegg, Evan Mecham, etc.).

[Sammy Pepys]

20. Nevada should not be considered competitive...

..and Kyl's seat only barely.