Interetsing analysis on state poltical trends

[skipos]

Red states trending dem: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia
Blue states trending red: Hawaii

Interesting comment:
"The states moving leftwards, while the same in number same as the number moving rightward, possess 72.5% more electoral votes."

http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com/

[Warpy]

1. I don't agree with his assessment of New Mexico

Wilson won the last two races by the skin on her fangs and only due to corrupted elections. This time she's running against an extremely popular figure and the voting system is now 100% optical scan paper ballots. In other words, even if the scanners are hacked, Madrid will be in a great position to insist on a hand recount, which I'm sure she will.

I think Heartless Heather is gonna be out on her bony ass. She isn't popular. She forgets all about this state as soon as she hits DC, where she's trying to be a Repug rising star.

[NMDemDist2]

2. and I'm moving in to add a another (2) vote(s) to the Dems in NM

:woohoo:

I'm counting hubby's vote too :evilgrin:

[Warpy]

10. Well, Steve Pearce (R-doofus) is unopposed at this point

and you'll be living in the reddest part of the state, so good luck. Pearce is a total know nothing who gets elected only because of that (R) after his name and the fact that he votes the straight neocon, fundy way.

He had good opposition in 2004 and it wasn't even close.

The same goes for the Senator, Domenici (R-wingnut), a place holder who forgot why he was sent there in the first place and spends most of his time raising funds and lobbying to keep redundant air bases open in this state. The oil boys pretty much own him, I think.

Both of them have reliably neocon/theocrat voting records.

[espera17]

11. Time

it will be years before Arizona is truly competitive

[espera17]

9. recommendation

i recommend you leave a comment, he is good about responding to them

[leyton]

3. He's only basing it on five elections,

two of which where three-way races where Ross Perot really cut into the Republican base. I think a qualitative analysis will be more accurate than a simple by-the-numbers analysis.

Also, aren't Iowa and Wisconsin and Minnesota becoming redder? It seems to me that they used to be comfortably Democratic and are now only barely Democratic or not at all?

[espera17]

5. Perot not a factor

Because he zeroes the state margin according to the national one, there is no Perot effect. Iowa is listed as trending Republican, while Wisconsin and Minnesota are listed as steady. Remember, they could be trending Republican but under the 1% rate.

[leyton]

4. <double post>

[espera17]

6. Iowa as well

While Iowa went for Bush in 2004, it is still considered blue but it is moving rightward as well.

[WestSeattle2]

7. Hawaii trending red?!

Pearl Harbor will freeze over before that happens. Many native Hawaiians are socially conservative, but when push comes to shove, they vote D. They support conservative social initiatives, but not very many conservative politicians.

[espera17]

8. Since 1988

Since 1988, the Democratic margin of victory in Hawaii has been declining.

[Lexingtonian]

12. I don't buy it

There are problems with working purely by percentages. Republicans got a soft 10% increase in turnout of conservative leaners in '04. Those people don't show up for midterms and they are Undecideds soon to be Disapproval for Bush at the moment. And Bush = Republicans these days.

I will agree with this person's list of D-trending states. But the trend in all the 48 continental states is all Democratic- he's wrong to see true Republican trend anywhere except Hawai'i. And those states he claims are treading water...that's the surface, that's not the way the results in November are going to look.

Hawai'i has simply been run by an older, conservative version of Democrats for so long that change is necessary. What seems to me to be going on in the state is what happened on the mainland in the late Eighties and early Nineties- a reluctant retention of conservative Democrats to protect the blue collar labor force but reactionary trend to social change.

[espera17]

13. Not so fast

States like Nebraska have been moving rightward, as have Utah, Idaho, Georgia, etc. You can't possibly be arguing that Mississippi is becoming more Democratic are you?