Democrats set to retain key house seats

[espera17]

Taken from http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com

Illinois District 8:

House District 8: Probably the most competitive Illinois House District is the 8th. Melissa Bean was elected in this Republican district in Illinois only because of the screw-ups of GOP predecessor Phil Crane. Bean alienated some Democrats by voting in favor of CAFTA and Republicans are waiting to take over this seat. Just like in the 6th District, Bush's poll numbers are abysmal. Furthermore, the 8th District has been moving leftward for some time now, bordering the similiarly moving 6th District. David McSweeny, an investment banker and previous House candidate, is the Republican running in this district. Bean and McSweeny are neck and neck in fundraising, though Bean does have a slight advantage. McSweeny has spent a significant amount of money in the primary, and that election gave Bean a slight advanatage. Additionally, while it may seem like McSweeny has been a great fundraiser, almost 75% of his campaign money has come from his own pocket. Less than 25% of his campaign money has come from individual donors, suggesting less strength as a candidate than would seem at first glance. Bean has all the advantages of incumbency, free mailings, free press coverage, etc. This race will be close, but with Republicans doing poorly nationally, particularly in Democratic states like Illinois, this is now a VERY WEAK RETENTION for the Democrats. Bean is by no means safe, but a Republican takeover here is looking less and less likely as of now.

Georgia District 12

House District 12: In House District 12, John Barrows, Democratic Representative, is faced with former Congressman Max Burns in this newly drawn district. Because of Georgia election rules, Barrows can run for this seat even though he doesn't live in the district. John Barrows leads Burns in fundraising by more than $200,000. As with District 8, Bush's poor performance in Georgia and generic ballots even in this state favoring Democrats will keep this seat blue. In a Republican year this seat would switch, but we are looking at quite the opposite. This is a VERY WEAK RETENTION for the Democrats. One mistake by Barrows could cost him the race, but as long as he runs a smart campaign he will be safe.

Looks like the only party set to gain House seats in the 2006 election is the Democratic Party!

[UrbScotty]

1. Let's not get too cocky... or forget Diebold

...but you're right. It's looking good.

[espera17]

2. yeah

well we have to be the party of optimism