Zogby - Sherrod Brown Surges to 8.9% Lead Over DeWine

[OzarkDem]

No link yet, but just got this press release from Ohio Dem Party:

SHERROD BROWN SURGES TO 8.9% LEAD OVER DeWINE
IN WALL STREET JOURNAL ZOGBY POLL

For Immediate Release March 31, 2006
Contact: Brian Rothenberg, Communications Director Phone: [phone]

Columbus -- U.S. Senate Candidate Sherrod Brown surged to an 8.9% lead over incumbent Senator Mike DeWine in the latest Wall Street Journal Zogby Poll.

Rep. Brown holds a lead of 45.9% to DeWine's 37%.

The WSJ also indicated that "Incumbent Senator Mike DeWine has one of the lowest approval ratings in the Senate... ."

In the Governor's race Rep. Ted Strickland holds a steady lead over Republican opponents at 45.6% over Ken Blackwell 41.3% with Jim Petro a distance away at 30.5%.

[Doctor_J]

1. Still too close to overcome the vote-rigging

He needs a 12-pt lead at least to keep from getting Whitewell'd in November. Go Brown!

[saltpoint]

2. an ex-Ohioan, I miss Howard Metzenbaum and wish for Buckeyes

these days at least one Democrat in the U.S. Senate.

And who on earth would miss Mike DeWine anyway?

[OzarkDem]

4. Me too!

I long for the days when we had both Howard and John Glenn. Ohio hasn't fared as well since they retired. Though I loved them both dearly, Metzenbaum was a special favorite for his fiery rhetoric and unabashed liberalism.

[saltpoint]

7. Yessir. I just loved the guy. Well, OzarkDem, let's both send some good

vibes up to Ohio so those folks can have some more Democrats in public office.

All good wishes to ya.

[saltpoint]

21. That should have been: Yes, Ma'am. Apologies.

[wisteria]

3. This is good news and I don't even live in Ohio.

I hope he increases his lead and our party can overcome any tricks pulled by the Republicans.

[yellowcanine]

5. If we can't beat Republicans in Ohio this year we can't beat them

in any red states. Statewide races are Ohio Dems to lose, imo.

[madmom]

14. Not necessarily so, in my section of Ohio the repukes HATE dems

simply because they are dems and the same party as that "immoral" Clinton.Church is really the guidance around here, they do what they are told, no questions asked.

[iconoclastNYC]

16. Soudns like the Ohio dems need to talk about Bush's immoral war.

And the immoral response to Katrina

And the immoral Republicans taking bribes from lobbyists.

There is nothing moral about Bush and his Republican rubberstamp Congress.

[madmom]

23. Hell we're right in the middle of one of the biggest repuke scandals

in (?) I don't know how long, but they still "have faith" that the repukes will "do whats right" It's so bad the my SO works at a large union manufacturing plant and quite a few of his fellow employees are repukes, who don't believe in unions but won't give their jobs up to someone who does and go work at the local wal-mart.But bush is god and we're in a war ya know and it's all Clinton's fault!!!:banghead: :grr:

[iconoclastNYC]

24. This is why the DNC needs to train us hard core Democrats how to

Be on message, how to reach out to independants and get people to the polls.

Every person who cares enough to post on DU should know how to persuade a Democrat or Independant to vote Democratic and how best to get a Republican to be so disgusted that they just stay home.

That's the biggest failure of the DNC. They need to train us how to do this task. There should be books, seminars, web sites....talking point lists.

[madmom]

25. I couldn't agree more, I send news snippets to work with him when

ever there is something I know will cut right to the quick (usually monetary) just to let them see whats happening outside of faux news.

[yellowcanine]

27. Note I said "Statwide races". Of course pubbies are still going to carry

pubbie areas. But Ohio is close enough to parity between pubbies and Dems that the Dems have no excuse if they can't carry the day in statewide races given the Republican scandals in Ohio and the poor polling numbers of Bush. Also don't forget that the Ohio National Guard has suffered a disproportionate number of Iraq casualties. These factors should depress pubbie turnout to the extent that a strong Dem and independent turnout should sweep Dems to victory statewide. It will not even be close if the Democratic organization and candidates run a good campaign. Crappy campaigns can always negate good fundamentals.

[madmom]

29. I realize what you said, but I still believe the repukes in this state

are so stupid they will vote for anything NOT democratic, no matter what. I've been here for over 30 years and I see nothing changing.Get out of the cities and go to the country and rural areas and there still bush defenders to the end.

[yellowcanine]

30. Dems don't need republican votes. They just need a strong Dem

and independent turnout in the cities combined with a depressed Republican turnout in the suburbs and rural areas. It is basic electoral math.

[madmom]

31. this is true but in a state that is majority repuke, if they think there

is a snow balls chance in hell that a dem might win they will be out.

[yellowcanine]

35. Believe it or not, Ohio is trending Democratic so it is only a matter of

time. This too shall pass.

[whometense]

6. Fantastic news -

lets hope it's only the first hint of a landslide victory for Brown.

[rockymountaindem]

8. That's some good news to see in the morning

Go Brown!

[OzarkDem]

9. Link

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

[The Magistrate]

10. An Excellent Harbinger For The Fall, Ma'am

It would seem Sens. Schumer and Reid know their trade....

[Aaaargh]

46. Thank God OH primary voters weren't allowed to choose their candidate!

Your comment is silly and uninformed. The key to polls that show DeWine behind is DeWine's own fall in popularity. Hackett was ahead of DeWine in early polls as well, in fact he was doing better than Brown against DeWine.

I say again -- wait until those attack TV commercials start.

[UrbScotty]

11. Rove: "Uh-oh, Diebold, you better get crackin'!" (nt)

[OnionPatch]

13. Yes, they better but

what about that last election they had for election reform? Polls were running 60% for the legislation and it lost 60% against. Seems to me the margin of error is going to have to be bigger before Diebold is unable to steal it again. :(

[Doctor_J]

18. THey don't need Diebold in OH

they just don't let people vote in the Dem precincts. Hopefully if that happens this November there will be bloodshed.

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Ford's made a pickup

...uplike 10 points compared to the last poll, I believe. Now he's within 5 points of both opponents. At this rate, he can still win that one!

[snowbear]

17. Go Brown !!! Go Ford !!! Only SEVEN more months !!!

I wish the election was next week, but --- it's not like Bush and the R-thugs won't still SUCK in 7 months..

[Tiggeroshii]

19. Unfortunately we need to wait for Bush to drop another 8 points.

I hope for the Rove scandal to preoccupy them from being able to invade Iran in the near future.

on edit: Or perhaps from being able to pull off any other tricks they may hqave up their sleeves. I think if this next october is as bad as the last one, then the only thing keeping the Dems from picking up control of a house of congress is if every Dem just decided to quit. Or something along those lines. I think at this point, they can't even mess it up that bad. Plus, we've got Dean on our side =)

[iconoclastNYC]

15. There must be a massive parellel election system in place for November

They will steal the vote again. Ohio is so corrupt that a Democratic governor could look into the books and destroy the state GOP.

What's being done to safeguard the election? Anyone know? Recounts are impossible now, right?

[Tiggeroshii]

20. I think a national law is the only answer

...and unless somebody really decides to push for one soon, we really won't know who won in the general election.

[lostnfound]

39. "What's being done to safeguard the election?"

I will be thrilled if Brown gets in, but you are absolutely right.

Wish our party leaders were hammering on this issue every day.

But as far as the poll goes:

:grouphug: :bounce: :toast: :woohoo:

[liam_laddie]

44. Recounts are possible, but...

Ohio HB-3, the infamous election reform legislation jammed through recently
(it runs some 320 pages!) states that challenges in FEDERAL races must be filed
ONLY in federal court, making those recounts much more expensive and time-consuming.
Plus, cost of state or local recounts now cost $50/precinct, previously $10. So a
statewide recount of the ~11,000 Ohio precincts would cost the challenger(s) over
$550,000! Yeah, government "of, by and for the people..."
And get this, any candidate for office other than a D or R, needs five times as many
signatures on their petition. Jaysus! Tea leaves indicate that Common Cause with
others are preparing lawsuits challenging many pieces of HB-3 on Constitutional grounds.
There are some scattered local plans for parallel or other means to monitor results.
Whether these coalesce into a major effort is still an open question. That said, the energy
generated in 2004 is very much alive!

[melissinha]

22. Good news!

AWESOME, Democrats countrywide are happy to hear that.....


:grouphug:

[Mr_Spock]

26. Say it's so!

I hope this holds.

[liberalpragmatist]

28. Is this one of those "online" polls?

Or a traditional poll? I only ask because Zogby's online polls don't have a very good record thus far (although at some point, when someone does find the right formula, online polling will be the future).

[OzarkDem]

32. Its the "regular" kind

I don't think they use online polls for races.

[liberalpragmatist]

34. They did in '04

They released several online or electronic polls although they continued releasing regular polls too. The electronic ones were very off, showing Kerry even in Tennessee and way ahead in Ohio, for instance, but way behind in Pennsylvania.

[Awsi Dooger]

33. That would be a huge win

I still think Hackett was a better fit to oust an incumbent in a red state, but I'll thrill to be wrong.

The problem with all these leads, specific or generic, is our numbers aren't very high. I'd be much more convinced if the number were 51-42, or similar.

[oasis]

36. woo hoo

:woohoo:

[sandrakae]

37. I love this. Ohio seems to be setting the record straight.

[Douglas Carpenter]

38. cool

[saltpoint]

40. A contact in Cincinnati reports in that Jean Schmidt's seat is not

all that safe, that she may be vulnerable to a primary upset, and that by the Ohio primary date it might not even BE an upset.

Source says if that happens the seat stays red, so losing Schmidt is a smaller consolation.

The main question I had was about Strickland and Brown, and I'm told that their chances remain difficult in such a red, red corner of Ohio, but that people are generally not in support of Bush's war, at least as originally advertised. A high school in suburban Butler County lost one of the marines killed in the day several lost their lives in Iraq, and it evidently is having a strong ripple effect.

All is not lost in Ohio's SW, although running a blue streak through those counties will take some extra push.

Go, Dems.

[liam_laddie]

41. May 2 primary, OH CD-2

Bob McEwen is challenging Mean Jean in the (R) primary, and from what I read in the tea leaves,
he'll take her out. But the leaves also say he is, or was, even more conservative. On the (D) side
there is a spirited primary contest among five candidates. A fairly strong opponent for November
should emerge. In Hamilton County, Hart Intercivic "eScans" will be used for the first time in an
all-precinct election. In CD-1, the W and NW area plus some of Butler, John Cranley (D) looks to
be a very strong challenger to Comb-over Chabot.

[saltpoint]

42. I love your news, liam_laddie, especially about Cranley's chances

over Chabot.

Hell, I'm still sore over his deafeating Roxanne Qualls! I loved that woman, and she would have made a sensational Congresswoman.

Anyway, thank you so much for the update. Please post about this district as often as you want to -- a lot of us ex-Ohioans are interested and really appreciate the info.

All the best to you.

[OzarkDem]

43. McEwen no improvement

Mean Jean is no worse than any other GOP'er, she's just more obvious in her dishonesty and wingnuttery.

Is there any chance of a Dem winning the seat?

Great news about Cranley, too. As soon as the primary is over, my first donations will go to whichever Dems are still in these races.

[liam_laddie]

47. about Cranley, other news for expat SW Buckeyes

Cincinnati directly elected a mayor last fall (Mark Mallory over David Pepper); John Cranley was the
top finisher in the 31-candidate Council race, so he's Vice-Mayor. Fairly popular, (he's pro-life, a
necessity in the "West.") Impressive resume' - St. X, John Carroll, Harvard - JD Law & MA Divinity.
<http://www.johncranley.com/contact.asp> In his very first campaign in 2000 he lost to CombOver
by just 53-47, a great first-time-out showing.

In the County Commissioner race,David Pepper (Yale BA and JD) <http://davidpepper.com/about.php>
is running as "The Heimlich Remover" against the fiscal neolithic Phil Heimlich (yes, son of the inventor
of the Maneuver.) Delicious to imagine Pat "DeWhine" in the 2D-1R Commisssion after Nov 7.

There's good Dem energy in Clermont and Warren Counties; don't know about Butler. Changing red
to blue? Maybe! The Enquirer is even printing some anti-bush LTTE's.

[Aaaargh]

45. Hurray! Sherrod WON!

Sorry -- a poll is not an election, and the election is not being held until November. This is April. The TV commercials haven't even started yet. People who actually live in Ohio and have followed elections here for years will all tell you the same things: DeWine is a vicious campaigner, he will be very well-funded and running a whole lot of attack commercials, and Brown shares the weaknesses of Dem nominees for statewide offices who've lost elections over the last decade and a half.

The good thing about polls that show Brown ahead is that these MAY lead to his campaign getting enough funding to be really competitive. That has NOT been the case in recent contests, certainly not with Eric Fingerhut's race against Voinovich. So, we'll see. Meanwhile, better keep the cap on that champagne bottle.

[OzarkDem]

49. Stating the obvious

I guess I missed the part where we declared Sherrod the winner already.

Regardless of what you may think, this is very good news, especially considering the dismal performance of virtually every other GOP'er running for office in Ohio.

Ohio is toxic for Republicans this year.

[tritsofme]

48. If this is a Zogby "Interactive" poll it is utterly worthless.

I can't imagine why the WSJ pays for them.

They are internet based and the sample can't be scientific.

The only people interested in taking these polls are the activists on both sides of the spectrum.