Strickland - Double digit lead in OH governor's race

[OzarkDem]

from a Rasmussen poll. He's at the magic 50% level against Blackwell who has 40%

From Ohio Dem Party
New Independent Poll Shows
Strickland Leads Blackwell by 10,
Petro by 13 Points

Strickland Polls at 50% vs. Blackwell Head-to-Head for First Time

Columbus, Ohio - Ohio gubernatorial candidate Congressman Ted Strickland holds a ten-point lead over Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, according to a new independent Rasmussen Reports poll released on their website today.

The new survey shows Strickland with a ten-point lead over Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, 50% to 40%. This survey marks Strickland's first 50% poll vs. Blackwell in a head-to-head match-up.

Strickland's numbers indicate steady support since January, when Strickland led Blackwell by four, 44% to 40%, in a similar Rasmussen Reports poll.
Strickland also increased his margin of victory over state Attorney General Jim Petro from seven points in February to thirteen points in the latest poll, 47% to 34%.

Rasmussen Reports points out in a press release that Strickland has the highest favorability rating among the three candidates. Rasmussen Reports indicates that Strickland is viewed favorably by 54% of likely voters.

Strickland is viewed unfavorably by 28%, contrasted with Petro's 41% favorability/46% unfavorability rating and Blackwell, who is viewed favorably by 46% of likely voters and unfavorably by 44%.

Rasmussen Reports is an independent public opinion polling and research firm that will be polling every U.S. Senate and Governors' race once per month throughout the year.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Ohio%20Governor%20March.htm

[dolstein]

1. Didn't Michael Dukakis have a double digit lead over Bush Sr. once?

Look, I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade. I certainly hope that the Democrats sweep all the statewide races in Ohio. I just want to point out that, despite how unpopular the Republican Party is right now in Ohio, at the end of the day, a lot of voters are going to have a hard time voting for a Democrat. And the Republicans are going to do all they can to polarize the race. Just look at 2004. The Republicans weren't especially popular then either, but Bush still managed to eke out a victory in Ohio.

So while I'm hopeful, I would expect both the governor and senate races to tighten as election day approaches.

[Webster Green]

2. And Blackwell has the elections totally rigged in Ohio...

How the hell can he lose?

[snowbear]

3. Hey Dolstein..

.... (( ))

[OzarkDem]

9. There's no upside for the GOP here

The well is dry. They've exploited nearly every issue they can to divide voters, but at the end of the day, the economy sucks, the state sucks, education sucks, the whole state is immersed in corruption (100% GOP).

GOP voters here are nearly completely demoralized. Many may not admit it to their Dem friends, but they're growing more unhappy with each passing day.

Its against their nature for the GOP to do anything to improve people's lives in this state. And people aren't as easily fooled as they once were.

[OhioBlue]

17. Plus Blackwells "TEL" amendment

that he thought would be his big draw to the polls is getting heat from Dems and Repubs - it is a horrible bill that would hurt local schools, local governments, etc. I believe DeWine and Voinovich have even come out against it.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. For reference purposes

I guarantee if betting lines were available now on those races, the odds would be virtually pick'em and perhaps the Republicans favored, polls or no polls. Simply based on statewide tendency, and incumbency in DeWine's case.

Right now we're benefitting from a rising tide in every poll but the nationwide popular vote edge we can expect in this midterm doesn't figure to be above 3%, tops, covering all races. So keep that in mind when assessing individual races and particularly the ones in red states. It's still a polarized 50/50 era so any generic poll giving either side a 6 or 8 or 10 point congressional lead is pure garbage.

[Doctor_J]

14. however, the 3% nation-wide edge we have in theory

takes into account places like GA and UT, where we will be defeated by 20% or more. So we must have some similar advantages in places to offset the more ignorant areas of the country.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Agreed

I just think it's necessary to apply that 3% tilt to individual states and races, to isolate the range of expected result. Admittedly, that application is not as reliable in statewide races as in presidential, but still has some value. Ohio tilts maybe 2-3 points GOP at base instinct but right now the state is close to even partisanship, given the poor state economy and performance of GOP officials. So if we have a 3% nationwide edge it means our candidate should lead, everything else being equal. But in the senate race of Brown vs. DeWine, we are opposing an incumbent, which normally nullifies that 3%. And our nominee is more liberal than Ohio as a whole. So you have a number of conflicting inherent factors and likely a very close race. I prefer to look at it that way than to accept a poll number like this 7 months in advance. I'm not a Diebold guy so others can doom and gloom there.

[saltpoint]

4. Ohio has elected Democratic governors and U.S. Senators, though,

and so I'm hopeful with these trends and numbers.

There are still a lot of James Rhodes voters in Ohio (R), but there are many Dick Celeste voters, too (D).

I think Strickland stands a good-to-excellent chance of repeating Celeste's success.

Hell, I remember and voted for John Gilligan.

Plenty of Democrats in Dennis Kucinich's district, and the northeast corner of the state generally is unionized and generally Democratic. That corner of Ohio gave the 1976 election to Jimmy Carter and put him over the top in the electoral college over Gerald Ford.

I'm less enthusiastic over the SW corner of the state, but there is at least a possibility that Sherrod Brown's coattails in the Senate race will be long enough to defeat Jean Schmidt. That would be a good thing. A lot of blue voters are motivated to get Schmidt out of there.

They aren't exactly hogwild about Blackwell either.

Out on a limb here, but I say Ohio's gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, and the Schmidt district all go Democratic this time.

[Doctor_J]

11. Yes, but will voting machines be provided in Cleveland?

they weren't two years ago, and thus was Il Dunce' inflicted on us for another 4 years.

[saltpoint]

16. I wonder if Blackwell will be as ornery this time, though. He must

surely realize that he is under extraordinary scrutiny.

Neither Katherine Harris nor Kenneth Blackwell were under much scrutiny during the 2000 and 2004 elections. This time both are candidates for statewide office and after two disputed elections in Florida and Ohio, I don't think Blackwell has quite the range he had for Kerry v. Bush.

You raise a great point, but I'm still hopeful that it will be more blue than red in Ohio this time.

[NJ Democrats]

5. Hopefully this holds up...

But a double-digit led is very good right now.

[FogerRox]

7. Sounds good-- Kiclin

[The Magistrate]

6. Blackwell Is Doomed, Ma'am

A party that bases its strength on appeal to the deepest recesses of racism hampers itself greatly by running a Black man as a candidate. Whatever their protestatons in public to the contrary might be, a solid quarter of regular Republican voters will not vote for a Black man under any circumstances. Whatever polls state Blackwell's support is, it will prove a good five or six percent lower in the event....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[0007]

8. Hey, you are seldom on target, but this guy is always on the mark

[OzarkDem]

10. Pardon? n/t

[snowbear]

12. Hmm.. here's a guess Ozark..

Maybe he meant:

"Hey, you are seldom on target" = (referring to Rasmussen?)

"but this guy is always on the mark" = (referring to Strickland?)

Just a far-fetched guess though!!

...

[0007]

18. Sorry! You were not person I directed that post too. My bad.

[sandrakae]

19. Wow and it is a Rasmussen Poll.

If Rasmussen has him leading it has to be true. His always give Repukins the edge.

[OzarkDem]

20. Its probably a bigger lead

Taft's approval ratings are still in the basement here, and both Petro and Blackwell have also been linked to the GOP money laundering scandals.

Administrators are leaving the Taft administration every week, they know that ship is going down.