The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy

[Flabbergasted]

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204/keir-a-lieber-daryl-g-press/the-rise-of-u-s-nuclear-primacy.html

The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy
Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press
From Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006


PRESENT AT THE DESTRUCTION

For almost half a century, the world's most powerful nuclear states have been locked in a military stalemate known as mutual assured destruction (MAD). By the early 1960s, the nuclear arsenals of the United States and the Soviet Union had grown so large and sophisticated that neither country could entirely destroy the other's retaliatory force by launching first, even with a surprise attack. Starting a nuclear war was therefore tantamount to committing suicide.

During the Cold War, many scholars and policy analysts believed that MAD made the world relatively stable and peaceful because it induced great caution in international politics, discouraged the use of nuclear threats to resolve disputes, and generally restrained the superpowers' behavior. (Revealingly, the last intense nuclear standoff, the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, occurred at the dawn of the era of MAD.) Because of the nuclear stalemate, the optimists argued, the era of intentional great-power wars had ended. Critics of MAD, however, argued that it prevented not great-power war but the rolling back of the power and influence of a dangerously expansionist and totalitarian Soviet Union. From that perspective, MAD prolonged the life of an evil empire.

This debate may now seem like ancient history, but it is actually more relevant than ever -- because the age of MAD is nearing an end. Today, for the first time in almost 50 years, the United States stands on the verge of attaining nuclear primacy. It will probably soon be possible for the United States to destroy the long-range nuclear arsenals of Russia or China with a first strike. This dramatic shift in the nuclear balance of power stems from a series of improvements in the United States' nuclear systems, the precipitous decline of Russia's arsenal, and the glacial pace of modernization of China's nuclear forces. Unless Washington's policies change or Moscow and Beijing take steps to increase the size and readiness of their forces, Russia and China -- and the rest of the world -- will live in the shadow of U.S. nuclear primacy for many years to come.

[C_U_L8R]

1. the fools.. the mad fools

DeSadeski: The fools... the mad fools.

Muffley: What's happened?

DeSadeski: The doomsday machine.

Muffley: The doomsday machine? What is that?

DeSadeski: A device which will destroy all human and animal life on earth.

Muffley: All human and animal life?

Cut to: int. Ripper's office. Mandrake is sitting worriedly on a couch. Ripper puts a comforting arm around his shoulder.

[pretzel4gore]

2. what good is nukler supremacy

if the weather's going nuts, if hurricanes are making insuring vast swaths of coastal regions impossible, if the economic mess is exacerbated by a totally corrupted 'boy cries wolf' mass media and if the interntional community is broken up into unbridgeable set of self interest that refuse to even talk? the cost of all this military junk is vast, and the usa has already taken out a 2nd mortgage, it seems. that's why alan greenspan ratted off the sinking ship, wasn't it?