It would seem that there are two broad themes for change:
* The other guys (and/or their programs) are bad
* What we're offering is good
The former dwells on the negative. That's problematic, because people instinctively recoil from the negative -- if there's the slightest chance that what needs to be changed is
them. I've been flogging this theme over here:
http://vastleft.blogspot.com/2006/03/how-to-win-elections-and-influence.htmlI love the idea of paraphrasing John Kerry (over photos depicting lost US troops and Iraqi civilians), and asking Bush voters : "How do you tell yourself that you made someone die for a mistake?" But that's just a fantasy. We don't live in a world where people would do anything but eat you alive if you pointed out their failure as voters.
This is much more an issue during times of great division. If you aren't with Dubya, yer agin' him. GHWB swing voters, in contrast, didn't feel that switching to Bill Clinton was a huge repudiation of their work as voters. They just liked the new guy better.
So, assuming you can phrase the message so that voters don't take it personally, there are several juicy temptations for going negative:
* Negative campaigning has been quite successful in recent years
* There is so much dirt on these guys, it's tantalizing to try to shine a light on it
* Speaking for myself here, Bush bashing is an outlet. I have no mouth, but I must scream. And the jury's still out on whether the controlled-hostility approach of Gore (at least as of 2000) and Kerry was helpful or harmful to them. Would they have done better to have been less hostile, or moreso?
* As insurance against dirty tricks, laying out their dirty campaign tactics early on may be a valuable innoculation. That way when the next Swift Boat shit is trumped up, voters will have a "here they go again" context for it
* The media whitewashes the records of the Rethugs, voting fraud, etc. If they don't hear the scoop from our guys, where will they hear it?
The latter, if done well, offers hope. The vision thing. Sunny side up.
But if done badly, it can be smarmy and weak. I like John Edwards, in fact I voted for him in the primary. But I thought he got smoked by Cheney in the debate (though I know a lot of DUers called it differently). He seemed caught in a no-man's land -- his positive stuff sounded nice but insubstantial next to Mr. Gravitas, and his negative moves seemed rabbity.
The message is one thing, but also tremendously important is the messenger. Maybe I'm wrong, and "Morning in America" and "Bridge to the 21st Century" could have been taken off the rack, but they seemed to fit those candidates especially well.
So, without knowing who that messenger will be, how far can we go in working up the right
positive message? Of course, for the '06 cycle, there will be many messengers, but it would help if someone who is the, say, Dean (or Gore) of the party can take the lead in setting the tone.
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