Ohio Democrat gains 6 points in US Senate Race

[Lasher]

Brown has significantly reduced a 9 point deficit (46% to 37%) that had opened up in February. Way to go, Buckeye Democrats!

Concerning that defict, a wise man recently predicted, "I think that will come back around before November." Ha ha, told ya so, nya nya nya!

Ohio Senate: DeWine (R) 45% Brown (D) 42%

April 1, 2006--The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the Ohio Senate race shows Republican Senator Mike DeWine now leading Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown by just a few percentage points, 45% to 42%, with 9% Not Sure.

In our mid-February survey, DeWine led Brown 46% to 37%, an improvement for DeWine attributable to Democratic in-fighting in the wake of Democrat Paul Hackett's controversial departure from the race. At the time, Brown's support among fellow Democrats had slumped by eight points, and it was unclear whether this would prove a hiccup or a persistent problem.

It seems to be a hiccup. Brown has now recaptured six percentage points from Democrats, attracting 75% support, the same percentage DeWine wins from Republicans.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Ohio%20Senate%20March.htm

IMHO, Rasmussen's polls typically reflect a bias of about 4% in favor of Republicans, so there is reason to hope that the Ohio Senate race might be in better shape than this indicates.

According to the latest WSJ Battleground States poll, we still need to pick up 5 more seats to take control of the Senate this year, but this is encouraging news from Ohio.

[Radical Activist]

1. Great news

Brown is pretty liberal too isn't he?

[Lasher]

8. Brown is a solid progressive

Here's a relevant article Skinner posted on February 16 about the Ohio race.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=439636

[Douglas Carpenter]

21. funny you should ask that

Representative Brown is at least as liberal as Sen. Kennedy or Sen. Feingold

Sherrod Brown is one of the most progressive members of the U.S. Congress and a true grassroots democrat and Democrat.

Sherrod Brown bucked the Administration of his own party to fight furiously against NAFTA.

Sherrod Brown defied the tide and courageously fought and voted against the so-called Patriot Act.

Representative Brown fought and voted against the Iraq War Resolution

Sherrod Brown almost personally led the fight against CAFTA and the Bankruptcy Bill

Sherrod Brown helped pass the bill in Congress to provide Medicaid coverage to uninsured women diagnosed with breast and cervical cancer patients.

Sherrod Brown is endorsed by PDA (Progressive Democrats of America) and is an outspoken member of the Progressive Caucus.

courtesy of vote smart - link:

http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=H3141103&type=category&category=Foreign%2BAid%2Band%2BPolicy%2BIssues&go.x=12&go.y=8


2006 In 2006 Citizens for Global Solutions gave Representative Brown a rating of A.

2005 In 2005 Citizens for Global Solutions gave Representative Brown a rating of A.

2005 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Council on American-Islamic Relations 100 percent in 2005.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs (WRMEA) 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Peace Action 100 percent in 2004.

2003-2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 84 percent in 2003-2004.

2005 Representative Brown supported the interests of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People 96 percent in 2005.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Arab American Institute 50 percent in 2004.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the National Council of La Raza 100 percent in 2004.

2003-2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Human Rights Campaign 77 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People 90 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 100 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the National Education Association 89 percent in 2003-2004.

2005 Representative Brown supported the interests of the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers 100 percent in 2005.

2005 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Service Employees International Union 100 percent in 2005.

2005 Representative Brown supported the interests of the United Auto Workers 93 percent in 2005.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the American Postal Workers Union 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the United Auto Workers 93 percent in 2004.

2004 On the votes that the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers considered to be the most important in 2004, Representative Brown voted their preferred position 88 percent of the time.

2004 On the votes that the Service Employees International Union considered to be the most important in 2004, Representative Brown voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Communications Workers of America 100 percent in 2004.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the United Electrical Radio and Machine Workers 100 percent in 2004.

2003-2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees 100 percent in 2003-2004.

2003-2004 On the votes that the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers considered to be the most important in 2003-2004, Representative Brown voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 95 percent in 2004.

2005 Representative Brown supported the interests of the American Wilderness Coalition 100 percent in 2005.

2005 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund 100 percent in 2005.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the American Wilderness Coalition 100 percent in 2004.

2004 On the votes that the Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance considered to be the most important in 2004, Representative Brown voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund 100 percent in 2004.

2003-2004 Representative Brown supported the interests of the League of Conservation Voters 94 percent in 2003-2004.

2004 In 2004 National Organization for Women endorsed Representative Brown.

2005 Representative Brown supported the interests of the NARAL Pro-Choice America 100 percent in 2005.

[rockymountaindem]

2. There was a Zogby polls showing Brown *up* by 8.9

I don't have a link but you can probably find it on zogby.com

[Lasher]

10. I think Zogby wants you to pay for a subscription

Is that right?

[OzarkDem]

11. Link to Zogby polls in WSJ article

from an earlier thread. Brown is an experienced campaigner who is also a genuinely kind and outgoing person. He generates a great deal of trust and loyalty among voters and as a result he always manages to win by wide margins, even in "red" areas. In his own congressional races, he always wins with at least 65-70% of the vote, even when his congressional district was gerrymandered. People like him and trust him because they know he will always put their interests first.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2544408&mesg_id=2544408

Ted Strickland has also polled at 50% against Blackwell or Petro for Ohio governor also. Dems are doing well in Ohio, but they need strong, wide leads. Ohio Dem candidates are running good solid grassroots campaigns for the most part.

Any support you can send them is greatly appreciated!

[Jack Rabbit]

3. Excellent. What are the prospects for a free and fair election in Ohio?

This is Rasmussen. I believe Brown is ahead in other surveys.

Two years ago, cleaver and sneaky ways were devised by Mr. Blackwell to prevent anti-Bush voters from getting to the polls. Is anything like that going to happen again? Or are they just going to depend on Mr. O'Dell's product to count the votes with his reliable software that the public can't inspect.

[Faygo Kid]

4. Blackwell has the mechanisms in place to steal this election.

And his own, for governor. Ohio is going to be very tough to overcome the entrenched corruption that delivered the state to Bush in 2004. They will do what it takes. The media will be supine.

[Jack Rabbit]

5. That's not encouraging

I'm sorry to hear that. What can be done to prevent that?

[Faygo Kid]

7. I defer to my Ohio brethren. I don't have the answer.

It is discouraging, and I hate to be the wet blanket, but the truth is that the infrastructure from 2004 makes Ohio a very tough nut to crack. I appreciate your post and the opportunity to respond.

[OzarkDem]

12. They're being careful in Cuyahoga County

The Dem chairman is insisting any electronic voting machines be thoroughly tested by independent experts. They'll also be watching Ken Blackwell very closely.

Legislatively speaking, there's not much Dems can do, since the GOP controls all 3 branches of government.

The margins may be pretty wide come election day. Your average Ohio GOPers are getting more demoralized with each passing day and will likely stay home in droves in November.

I think the news media is starting to wake up, too. Its begun to dawn on many newspapers that Ohio is slowly circling the drain and continued GOP monopoly on state government is going to kill them.

[Faygo Kid]

13. Thank you. That's encouraging. Go Ohio.

Beat Michigan (oops, as an MSU fan, it's a knee jerk reaction). Anyway, glad to hear some good news, for a change. Put the pressure on; write your papers, kick butt as you see fit.

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Blackwell's own election will be more difficult to steal

Bush and Kerry were neck and neck. Strickland's beating Blackwell by 10 points according to Rasmussen who leans right. Polls also can't account for all of the bigots that will vote against Blackwell because of his race.

[gulliver]

6. Nice to see DeWine dropping.

He's under 50%. That's great.

[AtomicKitten]

9. I wonder how much of a lead is necessary to prevent the

successful theft of another election?

[samsingh]

14. which democrat could possibly vote for a repug?

switch your registration

[dolstein]

15. Funny, I've felt the same way about Dems who vote Green

But my suggestion that these people change their registration wasn't warmly received around here.

[Joanne98]

16. We'll have to give Dewine a constant pounding.....

Brown needs a 10 point lead to overcome the Diebold factor.

[skipos]

17. Rasmussen gives Strickland (D) 50%, Blackwell (R) 40% for OH Gov

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Ohio%20Governor%20March.htm

[safi0]

18. Rasmussen

Basically spells it out as to why Brown improved. The Dems who were upset about the Hackett situation have put there anger aside and rallied behind Brown. Dewine is basically polling the same.

[roseBudd]

20. If you are from Cuyahoga get the word ot, former felons in OH can vote

The GOP wants former felons to assume they can't vote and a large percentage do. While canvassing for Kerry in innercity communities, I came up with the 3 Bs, barber shops, beauty parlors and bus stops. These are the places you can be sure you can put out a message that will reach lots of potential democratic voters. We cannot afford to lose votes because former felons think they are ineligable to vote. We need a know your rights flyer and it needs to be cool enough the barber/beauty shops will post it and the patrons will look at it.

[tritsofme]

22. On what basis do you claim bias in Rasmussen?

His polls were almost perfect in 2004.

Rasmussen gives DeWine a statistically insignificant lead, trending toward the Democrat, and that sounds reasonable to me.

Zogby's "Interactive" polls are garbage.

[Lasher]

23. I base my opinion on comparison with other polls

Please consider the Real Clear Politics composite poll as an example:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

President Bush Job Approval is currently 38.3%, based on an average of four polls. Rasmussen's poll result is 40%, which is tied for the highest approval rating of the four. Their approval rating is always the highest one listed here, or is tied for the highest as is the case today. And they are always one of the polls used to develop this composite. I suppose that's because Rasmussen comes out with a Bush approval rating every day.

While you're at Real Clear Politics you can click on See all Poll Data{/i] to view more results, and there is also some historical information. That can help you decide if you believe I'm right or wrong in thinking Rasmussen has a bias in favor of Republicans.

Lasher

[tritsofme]

24. While I've found that curious, I've also found that the proof is in the

pudding.

If again like 2004, all of their numbers are higher for Bush and the GOP, and they still end up being spot on, then there is something wrong with everyone else, not him.

[Lasher]

25. It is possible to be right while everyone else is wrong.

It does happen. My opinion concerning Rasmussen's possible bias is not based on an analysis that is more objective than I have described. That is why I intentionally used the weasel verbage "IMHO" and "might" in my original post.

You bring up a good point in that Rasmussen's predictions were close to official 2004 election results. I didn't know that. But there are those here at DU who would counter that Rasmussen's projections and the election results were corrupted in favor of Bush. A thread to that general effect is currently number 2 on the Greatest Page.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2548260

I appreciate your opinion. I am keenly interested in polls, insofar as the 2006 elections are concerned.

Lasher