Nick Lampson's Dilemma (Democrat running to replace Delay)

[Gman]

I posted this in the Texas Forum as a reply to a thread there. But I thought I'd throw my thoughts out there for consideration.

The GOP must at some point pick a replacement for Delay on the November ballot. That replacement does not have to be done right away. I think the deadline for getting the new name on the ballot would be around Labor Day, so the GOP has plenty of time to select a replacement.

But who that replacement will be revolves around how the GOP does in the special election. By law, there must be a special election called within a certain time of Delay's resignation. If a GOP candidate wins the special election, the GOP precinct committeepersons that will pick the replacement will almost definitely pick the GOP winner to go on the November ballot. Remember that the special election will only be to fill Delay's unexpired term which ends in January next year.

Nick Lampson can run and could win the special election to fill Delay's unexpired term. The GOP precinct committeepersons would then pick someone to go on the November ballot. The question is will Lampson run in the special election and if so, can he win? I think Lampson can win. He's a great person, was a great congressman and has no political baggage. On the other hand, what happens if Lampson decides to wait till November and run against the replacement GOP candidate who is also the incumbent? It seems a cinch that whoever wins the special election will also win in November. But then again, special elections are all about get out the vote. Just because a Republican wins the special election doesn't necessarily mean he/she can win in November. The bigger turnout definitely will be in November.

On the other hand, if Lampson does run in the special election and loses, he's tagged with that loss going into November and is asking the voters to reconsider. That's not a good position to be in. Voter turn out aside, why would the voters change their minds four or five months later in November from what they did in the special election?

I think Lampson has no choice. He has to run in the special election. He has the advantage of a big war chest of money and can run a first class campaign just like it was November with 100 degree heat and 90 percent humidity. Everyone else will be starting from scratch. They will have little name recognition and no organization.

It is also likely the local GOP will designate an "official" GOP candidate in the special election (similar to what Texas Democratic Party rules allow) and that person may well get all the available resources of the RNC and RCCC, that is assuming these organizations consider the "official" GOP candidate a viable candidate and worthy of these resources. That's an interesting thought because it would be the local GOP precinct committeepersons that would designate that "official" candidate and all politics are local, contrary to what the national party would like. However, chances are there will be little conflict between the local and national party organizations.

One thing is all but certain. Whoever wins the special election will win in November too.

[MADem]

1. Wow, that's unusual law down that way

No gubernatorial appointment for such a relatively short period of time? All the expense of an election for a guy to sit on his ass for a few short months, not counting all the recesses (and there are plenty between summer and the holidays)? Sounds like the people of TX are getting ripped off!

[Gman]

2. Article 1 Section 2 Clause 4 of the US Constitution says:

Clause 4: When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.

In other words, the governor calls an election for a vacancy in any House of Representatives seat in any state.

It's not unusual, its the US Constitution.

[MADem]

4. No wiggle room if an election is looming, then

I guess I'm thinking of the Senate, where the guv can make the call. For example, when everyone voted for Mel Carnahan, Jean filled in for him due to a gubernatorial appointment. Ted Stevens got to the Senate as a fill-in appointee.

I suppose it is the DISTRICT that has to deal with the expense...if the Democrats get serious and do some under the radar, quiet, precinct walking, contacting only registered Democrats and making plans well ahead of the election date to help people get to the polls (preventing phone jamming games) they could well pull it off.

[Gman]

8. The constitution also says

a Senate vacancy is filled by the governor. The Congress is "the people's house". The Senate is more "elite". That's how the constitution treats the two.

[MADem]

15. Yep, now that you fire off my brain cells, it all comes back to me!!!

[dolstein]

3. I think there's a run off if a special election is called

I read somewhere that if nobody gets over 50% of the vote in a special election, there has to be a run-off, but whoever receives the most votes in a regular general election wins. If this is true, than you can be pretty certain that the Republicans will arrange for a special election to be called. While Lampson had a real shot against Delay, due not only to Delay's unpopularity but also because of a fairly well-known (former Republican) third party candidate, I think he'd have a hard time getting an outright majority in a special election against a Republican who's name isn't Tom Delay.

That said, Lampson has as good a chance as any Democrat is likely to have in this district, so we should continue to support him.

[MADem]

5. Well, the Dems could always run TWO candidates

One, a fundy religious right independent type from the CRAZYASS Party, and their real candidate. The crazyass guy could leach a few votes from the GOP candidate....

[Orangepeel]

6. what's that "length of time" by law?

I am not sure, but I thought, that in Florida, the seat is left vacant if there is less than a year left until the next "real" election.

[Gman]

12. The Texas Election Code says

§ 204.021. VACANCY FILLED AT SPECIAL ELECTION.

An unexpired term in the office of United States representative may be filled only by a special election in the same manner as provided by Chapter 203 for the legislature, except that Section 203.013 does not apply.

-------------------------------

§ 203.013 talks about the time before or left in the state legislative session and how runoffs for state legislative races are held.

Of course the statute says "may be filled" rather than "will be filled" which to me could leave it to the discretion of the governor. I'm not a lawyer but maybe there's some case law that applies too. You can't just leave TX-22 unrepresented. I can't imagine why the governor would not call the special election.

As for when the election would be, Section 203 says:

§ 203.004. DATE OF ELECTION.
(a) Except as provided by Subsection (b), a special election shall be held on the first uniform election date occurring on or after the 36th day after the date the election is ordered.
(b) If the election is to be held as an emergency election, it shall be held on a Tuesday or Saturday occurring on or after the 36th day and before the 50th day after the date the election is ordered.

The way I understand it, a "uniform election day" is one of a set of days designated as election days throughout the year. It's like the days when your city might have some referendum election or some other odd ball election that doesn't occur in November.

Assuming Perry calls an emergency election, you can bet it won't be on a Saturday when Democrats can be off work to go vote, early voting notwithstanding.

Elsewhere in the code it says it has to be a majority vote so there would be a runoff if no one got 50% + 1 vote.

[Geoff R. Casavant]

7. I don't think there necessarily has to be a special election

Governor Perry could simply wait until the regularly scheduled election, and leave the seat vacant from June to January. I'm sure there will be a political consideration in his decision to do so or call a special election, though.

[Gman]

14. See my post above this one about

whether there has to be a special election.

[Geoff R. Casavant]

21. Your post doesn't say there "must" be a spec. elec.

Perry can still choose to leave the seat vacant thru January 2009. The statute you cite only discusses how the special election is to be conducted if it is called.

[sandrakae]

9. The Greatest Man I have ever known is from the State of Texas.

I have to believe the people in that district cannot be so stupid to vote another Repukin in.

[muse]

10. Good info here at Lone Star Project

http://www.lonestarproject.net/archive/delayresign.html

[MADem]

16. Ahhh, so THAT is why the pecker is making such a big deal about MOVING

to Virginia...

In this case Article 1, Section 2 of the Constitution declares that “No Person shall be a Representative… who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.” (U.S. Constitution Article 1. Section 2)


Well, BugBoy best get off his ass and actually MOVE, then...

[muse]

18. Yep, there is a timing issue

Our governor can't call a special election until he is actually moved. And there is a waiting period for the emergency special election after that.

And, the republican party can't get together and put a candidate on the ballot against Lampson in November until DeLay moves, either.

And, DeLay is claiming he won't step down until May. I say that is a good idea.

I live in Sugar Land, by the way, and DeLay only lives a few mile from me. FOR NOW.

[MADem]

20. Pity they couldn't toss his ass in jail--I'd love to see him remain, an

unelectable buffoon, on the ballot. Ya gotta love the way these chickenshits play the technicalities for all they are worth! Craven SOBs!

[safi0]

11. There's a couple

Of similar situations that occurred in NJ and Calif. In Cali, after the Dukester resigned there having a special election in a few weeks and if it goes to run off the winner of the runoff will have less than 5 months in office, until they face re-election. This is apparently Calif. law though. In NJ the law appears to be more relaxed. As you know Bob Menendez was elevated to the US Senate and Corzine decided to not have a special election because it would be a relative waste of tax payer money since the winner would have less thn 6 months in office until he/she ran again.

[Bucky]

13. When in, doubt look to your principles. I say fight every fight you can.

Shying away from the special election could be a potential disaster. Running has its risks, but they aren't very big risks. If he runs and loses, he might have depleted his warchest. But the upside is that he can use this summer special election to build his field teams for GOTV. And running in the only election around in the summer would actually be a great chance to do nation-wide fundraising. If he runs and wins, he scores a massive PR victory that can build national momentum. If he runs and loses, we can always shrug and say "Oh well, it's still a 60% Republican district. Anything over 40% can count as a qualified victory. But no one is going to treat a defeat here as a repudiation or rebuff.

I don't see that there is much of a downside to him running, now that I think about it.

[muse]

17. And, he's running now and will be running for the next 7 months anyway

for the November election, anyway.

I'm a Lampson volunteer and we are already doing block walking every Saturday and Sunday in preparation for the November election. We have a good initial volunteer effort in place. Momentum is already building. We are pretty crazed down here to get Lampson in office in November, so it wouldn't seem any different for us to gear up for a special election. We are already organized and on the ground.

[Rosco T.]

19. Well, we can hope that Ronnie Earle will...

.. give bugboy a 'place to live' in Texas ASAP... that would negate him 'moving out of state' and then he's 'stuck' on the ballot.