AEI shill Bill Schneider admitting GOP has rigged the game

[Atman]

On CNN, the segment just ended, but I'm sure Leslie Blitzer will repeat it at as soon as he gets the chance. Schneider did a bit about "the coming tidal wave" in DC...Democrats winning back Congress.

EXCEPT...Schneider says it's unlikely, because of "reapportionment" wherein the GOP created "safe districts" for themselves. So, while DC is abuzz with talk of Dems sweeping back into control, he is basically saying, nah, don't worry. We've already rigged it in our favor.

Add Diebold into the equation, and I won't be placing many Dem bets in the 2006 election, that's for sure.

[AndyA]

1. Those reapportionments are being challenged in court

from what I understand. They may not stand. I know the deal in Texas is beginning to look shaky.

[BOHICA06]

2. Too late for court challenges .... have to wait til '08

Besides .... a position in Congress is 95 to 99 percent safe, so the max turn over is 20 seats. 75% of a 20 seat turnover has to do our way for there to be a change in House power. Don't count on it.

[saltpoint]

3. Agree with you on Schneider. There are times when he's reporting

when he seems barely able to contain his glee that his Rethugs are in power in all 3 branches of government, and all 4 if you count the media. And that would be the Far Right Corporate media of reality and not the "liberal" media of GOP smear tactics speech.

I would take Schneider's skill as a reporter, if not his viewpoint, over O'Reilly and Limbaugh and Hannity and Scarborough and other sensationalist hacks, but I'd dump Bill Schneider for Bill Moyers so fast it would make your head spin.

Can't crystal ball the election except to say it doesn't look very good for the Republicans. Their big guns are all in disgrace and/or under indictment, and the hapless media are beginning to take note of it. The Senate is going to be a steep climb, but I believe the House is well within reach.

[ourbluenation]

4. I'm not so sure.

It's true that with the gerry mandering an incumbent practically has to be dynamited out, but if enough pissed off rethugs stay home, or god forbid, vote for the oppposition party, it could happen.

[Vinnie From Indy]

5. Schneider is lyin' scumbag!

He has made his bones with BushCo on several occasions. CNN will have to create a new position for this dumbass now that Gallup is breaking away from a relationship with CNN and USA Today. Schneider's job at CNN was to spin each and every poll result in BushCo's favor.

[Zynx]

6. Gerrymandering is a very overrated phenomenon.

Districts are not that much different than they were in 1994. Granted, they are not as fair as they were in, say, 1964, but we are not at a point where everyone is sitting in some impenetrable bastion.

[Lexingtonian]

7. no, gerrymanders do fail quite often

And when they fail, it tends to be spectacular. True, they usually go down in the fourth or fifth election after redistrictings, rather than the third. But Democrats' gerrymanderings in the South blew up in the second election after redistrictings, in 1994. So the "rules" are not that strong.

This is a talking point from last fall. There are more than 15 R-held House districts that Kerry won or got within 1-2% of winning.

I compared gerrymanders across the U.S. last election. Texas was the last state Republicans could gerrymander, so their present number of seats is for practical purposes the maximum they can possibly achieve. The net difference between partisan gerrymanderings is that Republicans have 20 more than Democrats do- rather exactly their present advantage in seats overall.

I don't know what Schneider has been smoking. I see 40-50 districts in play this election, 45+ of them Republican-held, with Democrats now already with the upper hand in 10-15 of them. David Brooks said on Friday that two weeks ago the House Republican leadership concluded it was going to lose majority in November. DeLay jumping off keeps the boat afloat a little longer. But November simply looks like hell for House Republicans in the Northeast- three seats in Philadelphia suburbia look gone, one or two are good to go in New York State, two or possibly all three could fall in Connecticut, one's looking better than 50/50 in New Hampshire. Then there are two or three ripe in Minnesota and Iowa, three to five between L.A. and Denver, and a half dozen that are possible pickups between Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Southern Florida might be good for one or two pickups. And that's without any further Republican decline- which is clearly in the cards.