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EarlG ADMIN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-05-06 08:02 PM
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The new conventional wisdom
Yesterday I scribbled down some notes for a post I wanted to make about the 2006 elections. Part of my notes read:

If Democrats do make big gains this year, CW will turn against the Republicans. Media loves turnabout. ... If Democrats gain in 2006 CW flips to "Democrats united, Republicans in shambles."

I then set the notes aside knowing that my hypothesis rested on one very big and murky "if": that is, the possibility that Democrats will regain some control in Congress this year. Given my optimism about previous elections and the subsequent outcome of those elections, I just wasn't comfortable making the prediction that the "CW" (conventional wisdom) of the parties' images would flip so easily. After all, for the past six years we've been hearing nothing but "Republicans are disciplined and united, Democrats are divided and confused." I figured I'd hold off on making my post.

This morning I opened the home page of DU as usual, and began skimming through the featured articles. The third one down immediately caught my eye. It was a Time magazine article titled Turning the Tables. "For once, the Democrats are getting their act together," read the subheader, "while it's the Republicans who are divided."

On Capitol Hill last week, it was almost as if the two parties had decided to switch roles. At a press briefing, House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer was declaring, "Republicans don't have an agenda," a critique Republicans usually hurl at Democrats. ... Meanwhile, Republicans were looking in disarray - even before the announcement this week that Tom DeLay would give up his House seat.

The conventional wisdom in Washington in recent years has been that Republicans are more unified and disciplined and have better-articulated ideas than Democrats, who are often at war with one another and questioning their leadership. But lately the Democrats, looking to create a campaign platform for 2006, have put out some ideas that their famously fractured party largely agrees on.

So it looks like it's already starting to happen, and not a moment too soon. I had assumed that in order for conventional wisdom to realign itself Democrats would have to regain control of the House or Senate. If it starts happening before the election, we're in even better shape.

Republicans are looking increasingly shaky heading into this year's elections. Tom DeLay took a parting shot at his own party today, echoing Steny Hoyer's comments by blasting House Republicans for having no agenda. Apparently DeLay is going to try to push a conservative agenda from the outside. Whether he'll be trying to do that from the inside of a prison cell remains to be seen, but his comments indicate that the Republican party is in deep trouble at a crucial point in the electoral cycle.

The Democrats are going to use Bush as a weapon in this year's elections, and that is going to make things even more difficult for GOP candidates. Republicans essentially have two choices - they can stick with a hugely unpopular president and try to defend his failed agenda, or they can "cut and run." The RNC is already worried about this:

Republican pollster Jan van Lohuizen, in a memo written for RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, warns that if members of Congress try to drive a wedge between themselves and Pres. Bush, it'd be akin to adding weight to an anchor. GOpers are "W Brand Republicans" whether they like it or not. And van Louhizen, who has polled (often secretly) for the Bush White House under the RNC aegis for years, is worried about low turnout.

The Hotline, March 28 2006

The RNC is right, but they're in a Catch-22 situation. Cozying up to Bush is not a promising strategy this year. On the other hand, Republicans who try to run against Bush are going to be about as effective as Democrats who tried to run with Bush in 2002 - not very effective at all.

Inevitably, the temptation to try to cut loose the ball and chain that is the Bush administration will be too much for too many Republican candidates. Factor in GOP disarray over national security (the Dubai ports deal) and immigration and you have a fractured message and a fractured Republican Party. If that becomes the new conventional wisdom before November, these elections will be the Democrats' to lose.

Of course, that's a whole other post...
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-05-06 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. kick
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-05-06 08:43 PM
Response to Original message
2. I could go optimistic with you. but then I see what most Americans watch
Edited on Wed Apr-05-06 08:45 PM by KoKo01
when I scan my "Time/Warner" (which I wish I could pull the plug on...but don't...My Bad) and I think your "original thought" is probably the cautionary one on this and not as optimistic as it sounds at first. UNTIL we regain the House...and possibly the Senate...the Corporatists Owners WILL NOT TURN.

The best evidence I have that we aren't winning yet (even with your post of one person in TIME who sees better things ahead for Dems) is last night's "Tweety Whore Fest with Tom Delay which is posted about so much here that you must have seen it.

Also...listening to what "used to be NPR" seems to show that they are following the Repug Talking Points Meme that Delay resigned to move on to better things and that he's a good Christian Man who just took the "tarnished crown" from Gingrich and ran with it. He worked so hard for Conservative Values he just ran himself into the ground...and we should feel sorry for him.

I turn on Tweety once again tonight (Hey, what the Hell...I'm a sucker for Dem Torture) and he has Vin Weber on talking about how Saddam raped and cut ears off women and children and it was our duty as Americans to take him out and that "DEMOCRATS would LOVE FOR SADDAM TO STILL BE IN POWER OR TAKE BACK POWER." and then there was Dan Abrams and Lou Dobbs who barely cared about Delay's involvement with Marianas Islands and the women raped and tortured and forced to have babies by the rapist while they sewed Liz Claiborne garments sold as "Made in the US" and it made me want to barf.

Most Americans are busy with kids and work and they watch the News on the Networks or Cables. They see nothing but Repug Prop Up of every EVIL DEED known to Humankind...and they don't know what the hell to think anymore.

I wish I could be hopeful like you...or those that think that Katie Couric replacing (Dan Rather REALLY) is a GOOD THING...but I can't

The only REAL NEWS with In DEPTH DISCUSSION I see out there is here on the Internet. And, sadly one has to be young or old to spend the amount of time it takes reading all the stuff out there to be informed. THE MIDDLE OF AMERICA...just doesn't have the time...and those are the ones we NEED to GET OUT AND VOTE because they are OUTRAGED! :-(

I wish I felt more hopeful....
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rasputin1952 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-05-06 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
3. I think we have a real shot at the Senate, and it is certainly not
impossible for the House to turn in '06. After all, the R's did it, and we have been paying for it ever since.

The biggest problem we have is the, "what type of bagel do we bring to breakfast" arguments we D's always get in to; just bring bagels damn-it.

2006 is pivotal for 2008...we can do this if we all come together for the greater good of not just D's, but the nation as a whole. I'm willing to bet a lot of R's would thank us if we got the deficit down and took care of our infrastructure. The one thing we cannot do is sit around and squawk, we need to act...:patriot:
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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-05-06 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. "what type of bagel do we bring to breakfast" arguments
hehehehehe

Well said, indeed! :thumbsup:
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rasputin1952 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-05-06 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. That seems to put in a nutshell...
:)

I wish we could all just have bagels and coffe and get down to the real issues...that's how we'll beat these bastards. The R's have nothing, and we need to come up with and center on at least two serious issues and hammer them home.

All of the little tripe needs to be tossed aside...we'll never win with banal arguments. We've GOT to beat them on the issues. We can do it, if people put down their clubs long enough to quit beating ourselves over the head with trivial and assinine arguments.
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Clarkie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-06-06 01:03 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. Yes indeed, bring the bagels! n/t
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Clarkie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-06-06 01:02 AM
Response to Original message
6. Yes, I sense the same change in the air as well. n/t
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