Yesterday I scribbled down some notes for a post I wanted to make about the 2006 elections. Part of my notes read:
If Democrats do make big gains this year, CW will turn against the Republicans. Media loves turnabout. ... If Democrats gain in 2006 CW flips to "Democrats united, Republicans in shambles."I then set the notes aside knowing that my hypothesis rested on one very big and murky "if": that is, the possibility that Democrats will regain some control in Congress this year. Given my optimism about previous elections and the subsequent outcome of those elections, I just wasn't comfortable making the prediction that the "CW" (conventional wisdom) of the parties' images would flip so easily. After all, for the past six years we've been hearing nothing but "Republicans are disciplined and united, Democrats are divided and confused." I figured I'd hold off on making my post.
This morning I opened the home page of DU as usual, and began skimming through the featured articles. The third one down immediately caught my eye. It was a Time magazine article titled
Turning the Tables. "For once, the Democrats are getting their act together," read the subheader, "while it's the Republicans who are divided."
On Capitol Hill last week, it was almost as if the two parties had decided to switch roles. At a press briefing, House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer was declaring, "Republicans don't have an agenda," a critique Republicans usually hurl at Democrats. ... Meanwhile, Republicans were looking in disarray - even before the announcement this week that Tom DeLay would give up his House seat.
The conventional wisdom in Washington in recent years has been that Republicans are more unified and disciplined and have better-articulated ideas than Democrats, who are often at war with one another and questioning their leadership. But lately the Democrats, looking to create a campaign platform for 2006, have put out some ideas that their famously fractured party largely agrees on.
So it looks like it's already starting to happen, and not a moment too soon. I had assumed that in order for conventional wisdom to realign itself Democrats would have to regain control of the House or Senate. If it starts happening
before the election, we're in even better shape.
Republicans are looking increasingly shaky heading into this year's elections. Tom DeLay took a parting shot at his own party today, echoing Steny Hoyer's comments by
blasting House Republicans for having no agenda. Apparently DeLay is going to try to push a conservative agenda
from the outside. Whether he'll be trying to do that from the inside of a prison cell remains to be seen, but his comments indicate that the Republican party is in deep trouble at a crucial point in the electoral cycle.
The Democrats are going to use Bush as a weapon in this year's elections, and that is going to make things even more difficult for GOP candidates. Republicans essentially have two choices - they can stick with a hugely unpopular president and try to defend his failed agenda, or they can "cut and run." The RNC is already worried about this:
Republican pollster Jan van Lohuizen, in a memo written for RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, warns that if members of Congress try to drive a wedge between themselves and Pres. Bush, it'd be akin to adding weight to an anchor. GOpers are "W Brand Republicans" whether they like it or not. And van Louhizen, who has polled (often secretly) for the Bush White House under the RNC aegis for years, is worried about low turnout.
The Hotline, March 28 2006The RNC is right, but they're in a Catch-22 situation. Cozying up to Bush is not a promising strategy this year. On the other hand, Republicans who try to run against Bush are going to be about as effective as Democrats who tried to run with Bush in 2002 - not very effective at all.
Inevitably, the temptation to try to cut loose the ball and chain that is the Bush administration will be too much for too many Republican candidates. Factor in GOP disarray over national security (the Dubai ports deal) and immigration and you have a fractured message and a fractured Republican Party. If that becomes the new conventional wisdom before November, these elections will be the Democrats' to lose.
Of course, that's a whole other post...