Looking for a repub web site that lists the House races that they will win

[FogerRox]

Help me please, I am lloking for a list of repub predictions on the '06 house races.
Thanks in advance.
Roger

[LA lady]

1. Here is a possibility

Election Projection

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2006.html

[FogerRox]

2. yeah good one thanks

A REPUB told me he would not spend hours doing the research, I bet him I could do it in 30 mintues.

I didnt say I had friends-----

[lyonn]

8. Interesting projections

Many red states that are considered Repub. have or may have Dem. Governors. Here in Okla. we have a Dem. Governor, Brad Henry. They say politics are local. Does that mean that Okies are basically Dems? Bush is not at all popular Now with the repubs. that I know. Lovin' it.

[pk_du]

3. Here it is..

Top Republican House Defenses and Targets
by Chris Bowers, Thu Apr 06, 2006 at 04:43:02 PM EST

I scored this from a source who has access to an NRCC blast fax about their new "Million Dollar Roundtable." It is, in short, a list of what the NRCC currently believes to be their top 32 races in 2006. As you can see, they only have eleven targets, but twenty-one defenses:

Defenses (District: Republican Representative)
AZ-O8: OPEN (KoIbe); CA-50: OPEN (Cunningham); CO-07: OPEN (Beauprez); CT-02: Rob Simmons; CT-04: Chris Shays; FL-22: Clay Shaw; IA-01: OPEN (Nussle); IN-02: Chris Chocola; IN-08: John Hostettler; IN-09: Mike Sodrel; IL-06: OPEN (Hyde); KY-04: Geoff Davis; MN-06: OPEN (Kennedy); NM-O1: Heather L. Wilson; NC-11: Charles Taylor; OH-18: Bob Ney; PA-O6: Jim Ger1ach; PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick; WA-08: Dave Reichert; WI-O8: OPEN (Green); TX-22: Tom Delay

Here is the rub: they don't even list great opportunities for Democrats like PA-07, NY-24, FL-13 (Katherine Harris's vacant seat) and OH-15, probably because those seats have only clearly become vulnerable in the last two weeks (the fax did not show TX-22 to be open, for example). This list could easily expand, even though their own targeting already suggests that enough seats are vulnerable to lose the House. Overall, Republicans are defending at least ten major open seats: AZ-08, CA-50, CO-07, FL-13, IA-01, IL-06, MN-06, NY-24, TX-22 and WI-08. By way of comparison, as you can see from their targeting, they are only attacking two open seats, including ultra-Democratic VT-AL:

Targets (District: Democratic Representative)
CO-03: John Salazar; IA-03: Leonard Boswell; GA-O8: Jim Marshall; GA-12: John Barrow; IL-08: Melissa Bean; LA-03: Charlie Melancon; OH-O6: OPEN (Strickland); SC-05: John Spratt; TX-17: Chet Edwards; WA-02: Rick Larsen; VT-AL: OPEN (Sanders)

Two things jump out at me. First, I can't really see how this list can grow much, although Scott might be vulnerable in Georgia. Second, if VT-AL is on their list, they are really, really struggling to find new targets. Sure, it is an open seat, but with a Democratic partisan voting edge of around 11%.

A quick look at the NRCC target list reveals just how thin it actually is. First, note that even now, with a stranglehold on the south, five of the eleven Republican targets come from that region. Of course, even in the south, four of the five Democrats being targeted are vulnerable to mid-term redistricting (GA-08, GA-12, TX-17), or Katrina redistricting (LA-03). Outside of the south, two others are open seats, and two more are freshman Dems. Among all non-southern long-term Democratic incumbents, only Leonard Boswell in the IA-03 and Rick Larsen in WA-02 are being targeted by Republicans. Now tell me who is a regional party. Now tell me who is going to be playing defense in 2006.

The Republican target list is only one seat (11) longer than their major open seat defense list (10). While we are still not there yet, the makings of a real tidal wave are rising seemingly every day.

from Chris Bowers at MyDD.com blog

[FogerRox]

4. got any links? good one though

[FogerRox]

6. I got the link thanks

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/4/6/16432/82485


29 minutes, Thanks for the assists, fellow DUers.

Heres the thread at a local NJ board

http://www.southorangevillage.com/discus/messages/26018/109648.html?1144523087

[pk_du]

7. Sorry - here's the link...

http://chris_bowers.mydd.com/

( about 2/3rds way down)

[Catchawave]

5. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/

[FogerRox]

9. I did a search at Sabato' site for 2006/house and didnt find it,

thanks, comprehensive site too...........

[Catchawave]

12. Here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/?view

[Breeze54]

13. Sweet! TY!! .... n/t

[Lexingtonian]

10. there were some posts here or at dKos

with an NRCC list from a faxed memo that was leaked two or three days ago. I don't have a link, but my notes say their present list of vulnerable seats is:

Democratic: VT at large (open), Ohio-6 (open)

Republican: Arizona-8 (open), California-50 (open), Colorado-7 (open), Connecticut-2 and -4, Florida-22 (Shaw has cancer), Iowa-1 (open), Indiana-2, Indiana-8, Indiana-9, Illinois-6 (open), Kentucky-4, Minnesota-6 (open), New Mexico-1, North Carolina-11, Ohio-18 (Ney is leaving), Pennsylvania-6, Pennsylvania-8, Washington-8, Wisconsin-8 (open)

The remarks I saw about this from our side were more or less some surprise that the self-perceived vulnerable Republican list was not twice as long, lacking seats in Ohio and New York and Pennsylvania particularly. On the other hand, Republican strategists probably are smart not to admit to their own that there's trouble brewing in another 15-20 districts. As for laying odds, I don't know of Republicans giving any. David Brooks says the Republican House leadership decided around March 15 to 20 that it would lose the House with the internal polling numbers it had then; word is that they've gotten worse polls since. But there's a belief (magical perhaps) that Republican voters are still united in being unable to bear Democrats regaining national power with the Bush Presidency so close to failure and vulnerable to being toppled.

Among the grassroots sorts of election estimate making Pubbies, they haven't worked with percentages and odds this low in a lot of years and don't know how to handle the terrific softness of so large a percentage of their voters and their former voters now calling themselves Undecided. They're basically holding their hands over their eyes and guessing as optimistically (and mostly unrealistically) about trend and hardening of their vote over the next couple of months. They can't actually come up with a single good reason why or policy around which their moderate electorate would harden. The RNC is clearly telling all their people to try to win election or reelection very largely by rallying the Christian Right and hardliners, that their moderates can't be relied on this go-around.

My own models/guesses have trouble because there is no polling that shows moderate vs conservative Republican demographics of many of their vulnerable districts. I've pretty much settled on a North-South gradient of the proportions east of the Mississippi (Florida the exception) and a rough west-east gradient in the West. That modelling more or less proposes that we won't gain (or lose) seats in the South this time, voters there will keep the status quo for one more election, but that Republican softness north of the Potomac, Ohio, and Missouri rivers runs a lot deeper than in evidence at the moment and is where the disaster for them is going to take place. The Southwestern districts and states are probably tight battlegrounds that tip in the last weeks or days.

[FogerRox]

11. how about Independant voters?

"My own models/guesses have trouble because there is no polling that shows moderate vs conservative Republican demographics of many of their vulnerable districts. "

[Lexingtonian]

15. Midterms...

Presidential election year swing voters and Undecideds don't show up for midterms.

I use 'moderate Republicans' and 'conservative Republicans' here as a shorthand for political blocs that exist empirically in polling. All such empirical blocs on the political spectrum do contain various numbers of people registered and selfidentifying as Republicans, Democrats, and Independents in polling. The Nineties sorted out party identification fairly strongly, but we've had 10% of selfidentifying Republicans opposed to Bush and voting for Kerry since 2003 and 20% of selfidentifying Democrats voted for Bush in '04 and supported him and his policies through last year. In the last few months that 20% has dropped to 10%. Selfidentifying Independents splash as widely across the spectrum, just slightly more Right on average than selfidentifying Democrats now.

Right now the polling on the subject is a mess because the pollsters don't get it right, but it essentially says that nationally 42-45% of voters will show up for Democrats this Election Day and not give voting Republican even a single thought. That's a higher percentage and turnout than Republicans have ever gotten for a midterm since at least the Eighties and probably at least the Sixties- even in '94 (38% R vs 34% D) or '02 (40% R vs 37% D). They won in '94 on moderate Democrats staying home and out-turnouted Democrats in '02 on the 9/11-Iraq agitprop and exploitation and Bush Effect in the South and Midwest.

A total of 55% now want Democratic control of Congress, i.e. Democrats own all the Presidential election swing voters now too- but that middle 10% just won't show up at the polls. When Democrats hit around 60-62% wanting them to have control of Congress, that's Republicans waving the white flag and coming over to Democrats. I simple want moderate Republicans to sit out this election.

Republican turnout is harder to poll because their crucial voters are shaky. They do have a firm 32% (the hardliners), the crucial electorate is a wavering 6% (the moderates), and there are about 4% that thinly leans their way but already looks very much as if it won't show.

We do have a pattern of power collapse of the controlling wing of the controlling political party, its obsolescence and destruction, in every midterm since the end of the Cold War. Arguably even going back to '82 and '86 and earlier in a messy fashion if you count in Left/Labor Democrats and liberal Republicans as significant wings of their Parties, and overtly Right Republicans as the people who were defeated in '74.

'90: moderate Republicans ruined as a force
'94: conservative Democrats destroyed
'98: conservative Republicans defeated
'02: moderate Democrats beaten/finished

Which leaves us with hardline Republicans, in control and failing, and the last so far undefeated wing of their Party coalition in '06. The further math on them is that when they fail all elements of the Nixon coalition are defeated and that's the end of that version of their Party.

[FogerRox]

16. Interesting, thank you

[OregonBlue]

14. When you figure out where they think they'll win, find out what kind

of voting machines they're using and who's in charge of those machines. Might be a correlation!