Three problems facing John McCain in 2008

[jackbourassa]

Official Washington, both Democrat and Republican, seem to agree on one thing these days: John McCain is the favorite to win the Republican nomination for 2008, and if he does, he will almost certainly win the Presidency. But maybe i'm just slow, but I tend to think this analysis is completely wrong.

Now I agree that if the election were held today, McCain would have some advantages, given his popularity with the Washington media. The problem is that the election is not held today and the media does not select Presidents, no matter how hard they try. Given this, there are three realities, rarely discussed by journalists and pundits alike, which could seriously trip up McCain in his quest for the Presidency in the coming months.

1. Most potentially serious. If for some reason Dick Cheney, the Vice President of the United States, should resign or leave his position. I have read many posters argue that McCain would be appointed to replace him, but there is no way that this would happen. Why? Because Janet Napolitano is Governor of Arizona, and will most likely be re-elected this November. Oh yes, and she's a Democrat. If Bush were to appoint McCain to replace Cheney, it would leave a vacancy in that Senate seat which Governor Napolitano would fill by appointment. This means that the Democrats would pick up a Senate seat and bring the magic number down to 5 from 6, for winning back the Senate outright. It is my belief that Bush is more interested in maintaining his majority in the Senate than he is in helping McCain's political fortunes. My best guess is that Bush would more likely appoint his trusted adviser and current Secretary of State Condi Rice to the position of US Vice President rather than McCain. As a result of this, Rice would automatically become the front-runner for the Republican nomination, leap-frogging over McCain. This would become especially true if Hillary Clinton maintains her position as Democratic front runner.

2. McCain is very unpopular among the Republican base. I've always said that John McCain is the Republican version of Joe Lieberman. Both are popular inside the beltway, but neither are very popular among their respective bases. Remember when Joe Lieberman ran for President back in 2004? Despite having the highest name recognition, support from the DLC and other Washington "strategists," being the Vice Presidential candidate in 2000, early leads in the polls, and highest level of support among African Americans (the Democratic Party's most loyal voting bloc) Lieberman came in 5th in New Hampshire. Dismal, to say the least. Why? Because Lieberman is widely hated among the Democratic base. And the base matters. Especially in primaries. McCain faces similar problems. Consider this. In the two most recent non-binding Republican "straw-polls" held by conservative groups (one in Washington and the other in Tennessee) McCain lost them both, despite a concerted effort to win on each ballot. In the straw poll held in Washington (which again, I will argue, is where most of McCain's support comes from) he came in second to George Allen (whom I believe is the stealth front runner for the nomination). Then in Tennessee, he came in fifth - despite a last minute desperate maneuver to offer his delegates to President Bush). A recent ABC/Washington Post poll showed that McCain's approval among Republicans is less than 60%, with nearly 100% name identification. 25% of Republicans said they would not vote for him under any circumstance. Compare this with Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore and John Edwards whose support among Democrats range from 80% to 90%. This is a much more serious problem than people realize and is maybe one explanation why McCain has been working so hard kissing up to the Republican base lately. But this is a Catch-22. If McCain panders too hard he may lose support among Democrats and independents who supported him in the past because of his independent and maverick nature.

3. His immigration bill. This problem is related to number 2 in that this bill is very unpopular among the Republican base. McCain's involvement could be explained as another pander for hispanic supporters, an increasingly important voting bloc. But watching the reaction of Republicans to this bill, it could mean doom for McCain's Presidential aspirations. I can see the commercials already. McCain, allying himself with Liberal scion Ted Kennedy, introduces a bill that would grant permanent residence to 10+ million illegal immigrants. How do you suspect Allen or Frist will play this in Iowa or New Hampshire? I honestly think that McCain may have irrevocably destroyed his chances at winning the Republican nomination this past week. If Republican opponents of McCain make this an issue in 2008, I think he is done.

Therefore, for these reasons I think it's way too early to consider Senator John McCain a lock for the Republican nomination.

[brainshrub]

1. My prediction: Jeb Bush will run.

And any deals on the side between the BFEE and McCain will be dropped.

ON EDIT: Good article, by the way.

[jackbourassa]

2. brainshrub, I have a feeling you're right...

I think Jeb may give 2008 a try as well.

[TheCowsCameHome]

11. Jeb's immediate family will look great in a official White House picture

Talk about dysfunctional, to say nothing of his idiot brother.

[Poppyseedman]

13. Jeb Bush will not run in 2008

I live in Florida. Jeb has a serious problem. His wife. Not she is a problem personally, I'm sure she is as nice as Bush wife can be. (think stepford)

Her problem is she's Mexican born, and speaks english rather poorly.

Columba Bush would not go over very well with Joe Six pack republican.

[benddem]

18. to say nothing

of the druggie daughter and the two sons who aren't exactly altar boys.

[Poppyseedman]

21. Nicolle sure looks a little rough around the edges in that picture

hard night or something.

I'm a little bit careful about casting disparaging remarks about politicians children. Aka: Chelsea Clinton

[madaboutharry]

29. Noelle is the only one in that family

who I think is ok. She called the Bush clan "the first family of frauds." So, of course I have to like her!

[madaboutharry]

28. They look like they hate each other.

and Jeb needs a new valet to help him pick out his clothes. Jeez Louise!!

[FrenchieCat]

3. If the media wants McCain as President....

Would we really be left with a choice? :shrug:

I don't think so, cause it's the media that actually influences who we end up deciding on, via the masses who don't pay attention till too late!

The media can make or break just about anyone....

[Orangepeel]

12. the media wanted him in 2000. George Allen or whomever

would simply have to rerun shrub's commercials to win the nomination.

[FrenchieCat]

14. They must not have wanted him as President that badly....

cause if they did, they could have denounced Bush's primary tactics a tad bit louder. They didn't.

[niallmac]

4. Reason # 4 in my book.

For some reason I would really really feel uncomfortable having this guy near the big bright history erase button.
Stability is not a word I think of when I think of John McCain.
I believe there is a general sense of this is the rest of the herd.

[paul_fromatlanta]

5. The big problem with McCain is his temperament. n/t

[jackbourassa]

6. Also, his age

My post was more about the problems he faces for the Republican nomination, but in the general (if he gets that far) people might be put off by voting for a "crazy old man." He will be 73 in 2008.

[TheCowsCameHome]

8. Also, his (r)age

[howmad1]

10. And let's not forget his health.

He may have a recurring problem with skin cancer that would surely have an effect on his decision. And, oh yea, let's not also forget the little matter of Charlie Keating. Hopefully, the dems will play that to death. (Hmmmmm, why am I hoping the dems will do the obvious?)

[madaboutharry]

7. The other big problem with McCain

is that he is a phony, a liar, and full of shit. Arianna Huffington had a great piece the other day about John McCain's Bullshit Express.

[paul_fromatlanta]

15. I meant problems that would keep him from getting elected :) /nt

[madaboutharry]

19. That's funny.

:hi:

[Jane Austin]

16. That just hits me in my funny bone!

"The other big problem with McCain is that he is a phony, a liar, and full of shit"

Thanks for that. :)

[TheCowsCameHome]

9. Limbaugh and the other RW extremists savage him because he's

"not pure enough" to satisfy the whacko right.

He hasn't a prayer when his own assclowns want nothing to do with him.

[FatDave]

17. I agree with a lot of what you say, but not all of it

Your first point about giving up a Senate seat to a democrat is very perceptive. It had never even occured to me.

I think McCain's biggest problem is his recent pandering to W. You mentioned it of course, but I think that's the bigger issue. He'd do much better by being his usual self and getting the support of independents and some moderate dems. Remember "Reagan Democrats"? McCain could have all of them and probably then some. But not now. As John Stewart said, "has the Straight Talk Express been rerouted to Bullshitville?" Now is the time to be distancing yourself from W, not tossing his salad.

But I think you understated his support from the republican base. If you consider what went down in the Tennesee straw poll, McCain actually fared pretty well there. If you count the GWB votes as McCain votes (which they surely were, as W can't run for a third term) that actually gave McCain a fairly strong second place behind only Frist, who of course was on his home turf.

I'm not sure Hillary will even run, and if she does I don't think she'll get the nomination. Like you say, support from the base is very important, and she has lost a lot of support for her hawkishness on Iraq. Others like Hillary just fine, but don't think she would be able to win the presidency and will therefore try to support a stringer candidate. Feingold, on the other hand, is a fucking hero among democrats. Not the ones in congress, but the ones in the voting booths. My money's on him for the dem nomination.

For the republican nomination, I'd give it about 50/50 for McCain or Allen. Maybe McCain will give Allen the VP spot to pick up the fundies. If Jeb jumps in, all bets are off. I think we'd hand Jeb his ass though.

But hey, this is all just conjecture.

[jackbourassa]

22. You're wrong

If you would have given ALL of Bush's votes to McCain (a stretch in it of itself) then McCain would have tied for second with Allen. If ALL of Bush's votes didn't go to McCain (let's say he gets 75% of them) then he comes in third well behind Allen. And remember, that he had organized a strong support group to attend these meetings and lost them both.

I think you GROSSLY overestimate McCain's support among Republicans. I think it's very possible than McCain doesn't even finish in the top three.

[FatDave]

25. Maybe I am wrong. Unfortunately, you're wrong too.

I was wrong in that I said "fairly strong second place", whereas it would have been a tie for second place. But it would have been a tie for second with Mitt Romney, not George Allen. George Allen got 10%, tieing the not-even-able-to-run GWB. I should have known better than to trust my memory, but didn't bother to look up the results for my previous post. Anyway, I looked them up now.

http://www.everything2.com/?node_id=1792457

Frist - 37%
Romney - 15%
Allen - 10%
Bush - 10%
McCain - 5%
Huckabee - 4%

So you think it'll be Allen and I think McCain. Hmmmmm.... Friendly wager? :)

[Catchawave]

20. I can't wait for the Republican Primary season!

Whoever gets Karl Rove, wins the nomination :rofl:

I think McCain's lost his crossover appeal by sucking up to Falwell and losing his moderate appeal super-size sucking up to all of the BushCo mistakes.

Nobody's a lock on the Dem or Repug nomination as of now.

[Yupster]

23. On #'s one and two

I think if Cheney did resign Bush would pick a woman who would be a caretaker and not run on her own. That way Bush would make history without having to fight anyone. My guess would be Kay Bailey Hutchison.

On McCain, I think he would be acceptable to the base. The Republicans always vote for the frontrunner if there is one, and right now McCain is in as long as his health holds up.

[enfield collector]

24. the kenedy/mccain immigration bill has just finished mccains

career as far as the thug base is concerned. do not look for him to be a serious candidate in '08

[FatDave]

26. The other thing to remember...

...is that it doesn't really make a difference how anybody does in Tennessee or Washington. All that really matters is how they do in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[saltpoint]

27. A strong ticket for the GOP in 08 might be Haley Barbour/Rob Portman.

I was prompted to throw Barbour's name into this thread after reading Maddy McCall's great post on Barbour earlier today on DU.

Unless he turns around his hapless image, it's looking more and more as if THE CAT BUTCHER is done for. Frist's Schiavo videotape long-distance prognosis was pandering at its apex.

Allen is prominent but not eminent, and he's hopelessly stupid besides. I call him "Cement Head."

McCain has the star power for now, but the last couple weeks have confirmed that he's kissing up to the Far Right to position himself for the nomination, and in the process, he's losing enough independents and crossover voters, and that's the end of his appeal.

Romney seems brattish and I believe, fairly or not, his Mormon affiliation will be disqualifying for him in the Republican primaries.

Sam Brownback is a dangerous ideologue and may out-maneuver Allen for the crazy-as-a-shithouse-rat Fundie vote.

Portman is fresh, mediagenic, almost movie-star-handsome, and could ride in on the white horse of secure harbors and also make Ohio very close. Barbour is a smart guy, shrewd, and dyed-in-the-wool conservative, but with a sense of humor and a very potent Rollodex from his days leading the Party.

Barbour/Portman would be the ticket I'd most fear right now.

[fishwax]

30. a slight problem with #1

it assumes whatever might happen to dick cheney would happen before the '06 elections. For the record, I think Cheney will finish the term; if he should require a replacement, I agree that Condi is a more natural replacement and that McCain has absolutely no shot if it's before the 2k6 elections, for the reason you mention. But if Cheney should require a replacement after the election, the math could be quite differernt, depending on how the dems do this fall.

[fishwax]

31. I think McCain has very little chance in 2008

I could conceive of him winning the nomination, but doing so would require such a betrayal of the very same positions and values that made him enormously popular in Y2K that he would no longer be the unbeatable icon in the general election. That betrayal is very much underway, incidentally--note his commencement address at Liberty University.

The backlash to that betrayal is also underway--note the reaction of The Daily Show to McCain's decision to speak at Liberty University commencement.

McCain was popular in the Y2K primaries because he presented a clear alternative to bush (and Gore). But if he sells out to all the same factions that * did, he'll lose that popularity, and look like a self-serving opportunist to boot.