Election Results LIVE (FRANCINE!)

[ruggerson]

http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml

[quiet.american]

1. WOOT! n/t

[Doctor_J]

2. Any chance of her winning the inevitable run-off?

[Mz Pip]

3. It's a long shot

but would be monumental if she did. THis is a serious Repug District. They would vote for a sea urchin if it had (R) next to its name.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[IndianaGreen]

4. 18 Vie For Vacant House Seat In 50th Congressional District

For the benefit of those of us that have no clue who the players are in this district:

18 Vie For Vacant House Seat In 50th Congressional District

Eighteen candidates in a solidly GOP district on the Southern California coast competed in a special election Tuesday for the congressional seat once held by Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for bribery.

Brian Bilbray, a former congressman-turned-lobbyist who was the choice of the GOP establishment; Republican businessman Eric Roach, who spent $1.8 million of his own money; and Democrat Francine Busby were considered the front-runners.

Cunningham represented the House district from 1993 until he resigned in disgrace late last year. In March, the former Vietnam War fighter ace was sentenced to more than eight years in federal prison for taking $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors.

Tuesday's race had a wide-open ballot, with 14 Republicans, two Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent. If no one got more than 50 percent of the vote, the top finisher from each party would compete in a runoff June 6.

The winner will serve out the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term, and will almost certainly try to hold on to the seat come November.

http://www.kfmb.com/stories/story.46177.html

[snowbear]

5. Go Francine!

~ ~

[IndianaGreen]

6. Democrat Takes Early Lead In Special Election

Democrat Takes Early Lead In Special Election

SAN DIEGO -- Francine Busby, the lone Democrat in the race to replace disgraced former U.S. Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, has taken an early lead in the 50th District special election.

As of 8:30 p.m., the only Democrat in the race, Busby had 42.23 percent of votes tallied, NBC 7/39 reported. Her closest Republican rival, Brian Bilbray, 14.15 percent of the vote. Republican Eric Roach followed closely behind with 13.92 percent.

Voters were scarce at a sampling of polling places in the wealthy coastal district Tuesday morning, NBC 7/39 reported. Volunteers at a polling place in San Diego's Del Mar Heights neighborhood reported only 16 people had voted by lunchtime.

"I feel completely betrayed, not just by Cunningham but by the policies of the Bush administration," said Roach voter John Towers, a 51-year-old college math instructor from Cardiff who described himself as a fiscal conservative. "I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Republicans are so disgusted they just stay home."

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/8631955/detail.html

[American liberal]

7. polls have been closed 2 hours and they still have only

0.9% reporting? What's up with that?

You don't think she can break 50%? I do. Go Francine! We're all pulling for you!

[xxqqqzme]

18. All the voting today was paper & pen.

[American liberal]

22. Thank you for the explanation! There's another thread on GD

Can you post there, as well? Thanks!

[Tiggeroshii]

8. It's too bad the other Dem didn't get more support

...had he gotten more support and come in second behind busby, it would be inevitable this district would change parties. Unfortunately Chris Young's barely makin it :(

[cascadiance]

24. Chris is a she... And I think she just was there to confuse the issue...

I had a voicemail on my answering machine claiming that only Chris Young was "conservative enough" to win what was claimed to be the inevitible runoff primary with whoever won amongst the Republicans. That's a load of bull of course. Francine is just right in terms of her moderate stances for this district. She actually used to be a Republican.

Chris Young was there in effect to steal votes from confused Dem voters and keep her from going over 50%. Fortunately only 1.53% of the voters have taken the bait so far, but that might still make the difference in the end!

[Tiggeroshii]

39. combine the Dem votes you get 45 against 55 Repugs/Lib

We can still win this, all she needs is to get 5 more percentage points gained against that bilbray guy. So far she has a good start!

[cascadiance]

40. From what I saw of Earnest, I think she can get votes from him too...

He seemed to be the only decent Republican that was at the candidate's forum the other night. He even came out and attacked the "attack ads" from the Republicans and stated, "You know the same ad could be run against all of us. We've all taken donations from lobbyists." He then went on to try and infuse more decency and less partisanship in his positions in the debate. He wanted to come off as somoene that would get rid of corruption. I think many a moderate was probably attracted to him. Had he been more popular and also taken more of the extreme right wingers votes had he got in the runoff, I might be more afraid of someone like him not giving moderate votes to Busby, but I think many of the folks that voted for him might be more attracted to Busby than they might be to Bilbray. Bilbray was the GOP's man. He's tried to wrap a moderate logo around himself. He's supposedly pro-choice, etc. But he's also a lobbyist, which I think we need to go after BIG TIME. He's the "corporate" choice I think to keep the status quo alive. I think I'd like to see Busby now really go after trying to get public financing on her side and for us all to explain how public financing isn't only for "liberals", but that it takes special interest lobbyists like Bilbray out of politics, and the corruption mess that we're facing out of politics too. That it can be used for true conservatives or moderates to also represent people as much as those on the left, instead of representing corporate America.

Bilbray won't be easy. He's wrapping himself with Jerry Sanders' and other mayoral endorsements from around here. But Francine has also had some mayoral endorsements (even Republicans) from around here too.

I'm still wondering if Bilbray "conveniently" had more votes than Roach did. Roach almost succeeded in "buying" his way into the runoff. Closer than Francis did in a similar role against Jerry Sanders and Donna Frye. I wonder if the Diebold Central Tabulators might have been "tweaked" in his favor. The polls showed Roach further ahead of Bilbray before the election. People speculated that Roach might have been someone that would have been easire for Busby to beat than Bilbray. Some of the Rethugs behind the scenes might also have been speculating that too.

[Tiggeroshii]

42. Apparently there's still 10000 votes to be counted

absentees and provisional. That may or may not make a difference in the final outcome once they are all counted.

[cascadiance]

43. A lot of absentees are provisional...

People either bring their absentee ballots to the polling station (where they are counted after the fact), or they lose them or can't get to them so they are then given a provisional ballot. That's probably where a lot of the provisional ballots are coming from, though perhaps a few are probably from McPherson's snafu too.

[snowbear]

9. SOoooOo.. question..

If Francine somehow eeks out anything over 50%, she'll win and they won't have a runoff?

[ruggerson]

10. Yep

highly unlikely. But if it happens, it will be the lead story on the national news.

[Tiggeroshii]

11. Right.

And anybody coming in second will be her opponent int he runoff. Meaning, if the other Dem got more support, it would have been possible to have two Dem candidates in the runoff and an inevitability for switching parties. It's too bad that didn't happen and Chris Young didn't get enough support for that to happen.

[snowbear]

12. Thanks guyz.. & yeah, they ARE slow at updating those numbers!

They don't seem to be in a big hurry!

[ruggerson]

13. Right now, it's still absentees

Normally, absentee ballots are skewed Republican. I don't know if that's the case in this district, but if it is, then that's a good sign.

[snowbear]

15. ALL of those are absentees ??

Wow! Populated area!!

[saltpoint]

14. Hi, ruggerson. I'm good-vibin' as hard as I can.

I'd just love to see Francine Busby take this without a run-off, but no matter the exact %, I hope she is the winner.

It'll be a big blue headline for the next day's papers.

[ruggerson]

16. hey OC

We'll see in a couple of hours. She's really a terrific woman, and incredibly intelligent. She will make us all very proud if she makes it.

[saltpoint]

17. Yes, yes. And I hope the wave of the future for more races in Nov. n/t

[snowbear]

19. They updated it slightly, but Francine is still @ 42%

[ruggerson]

20. lol

a bit like watching paint dry :boring:

[snowbear]

21. Really....

US REP. 50TH DIST.

Precincts: 445
Counted: 33
Percentage: 07.4%

Vote for: 1
FRANCINE BUSBY
29037
42.19%

BRIAN P. BILBRAY
10043
14.59%

ERIC ROACH
9652
14.02%

HOWARD KALOOGIAN
5093
7.40%

BILL MORROW
4810
6.99%

ALAN UKE
2841
4.13%

RICHARD EARNEST
1808
2.63%

BILL HAUF
1180
1.71%

CHRIS YOUNG
1103
1.60%

WILLIAM GRIFFITH
690
1.00%

SCOTT TURNER
642
0.93%

VICTOR E. RAMIREZ
544
0.79%

PAUL KING
490
0.71%

JEFF NEWSOME
395
0.57%

SCOTT ORREN
194
0.28%

DELECIA HOLT
171
0.25%

BILL BOYER
103
0.15%

MILTON GALE
32
0.05

[snowbear]

23. She's eeeking up a teensie, tiny bit...

TopBack



US REP. 50TH DIST.

Precincts: 445
Counted: 99
Percentage: 22.2%

Vote for: 1
FRANCINE BUSBY
33399
42.88%

BRIAN P. BILBRAY
11826
15.18%

ERIC ROACH
10848
13.93%

HOWARD KALOOGIAN
5499
7.06%

[oasis]

27. Kaloogian shoulda stayed in Istanbul an ran for mayor.

:evilgrin:

[saltpoint]

25. Hi again all you classy folks. Can I ask a question?

Is Francine favored against any Republican, or is the heavy GOP registration going to make it close?

I. want. Francine. to. replace. that. jerk. Cunningham.

[Jersey Devil]

26. Updated Busby 43.28

FRANCINE BUSBY



45963



43.28%

BRIAN P. BILBRAY



16268



15.32%

ERIC ROACH



15197



14.31%

HOWARD KALOOGIAN



7856



7.40%

BILL MORROW



6148



5.79%

ALAN UKE



4271



4.02%

RICHARD EARNEST



2360



2.22%

BILL HAUF



1725



1.62%

CHRIS YOUNG



1490



1.40%

SCOTT TURNER



1424



1.34%

WILLIAM GRIFFITH



917



0.86%

VICTOR E. RAMIREZ



734



0.69%

PAUL KING



662



0.62%

JEFF NEWSOME



491



0.46%

SCOTT ORREN



278



0.26%

DELECIA HOLT



209



0.20%

BILL BOYER



160



0.15%

MILTON GALE



45



0.04%

[Tiggeroshii]

28. she gained a percentage

I wonder if she'll only get better by the time they are done counting.

[snowbear]

29. If she were here, she would have won... It's 45% still for Mayor...

Although our popular D Mayor won it by a much larger margin last week..

[snowbear]

30. Well... let me change that.. she'd win when she hits 45%

I hope she can somehow get to 50!

[snowbear]

31. Another update.........

US REP. 50TH DIST.

Precincts: 445
Counted: 418
percentage: 93.9%

Vote for: 1
FRANCINE BUSBY
54370
43.89%

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
So she will have to depend on the other votes they'll be counting to see if she gets to 50% ... is that right? She doesn't have far too go!!!!!

[Tiggeroshii]

32. they've already counted 418 of the precincts?

where are you checking??

on edit: nevermind... they just changed it :P

[snowbear]

33. Click on the results link on Ruggerson's first thread..

I guess all of these votes are absentees only?

[Tiggeroshii]

34. It's most likely she won't get 50 tonight.

Let's hope that is different in the runoff...

[snowbear]

35. But don't they have other votes to still count besides the absentee?

Before this special election is over? Sorry.. I'm not sure how it works there, but they said this list we're looking at is "absentees only"

[Tiggeroshii]

36. No, I'm pretty sure this is most of the votes

.. I think what they meant was that at that point they only counted absentees. They've counted far more than absentees now. The only way she'll win now is if all the rest of the votes are for her.

[snowbear]

37. Oh.. okay.

She did good.. But when you tally up the amount of votes for all those R-Thugs, she's going to have a hell of a time converting them..

Crazy how they'd stick with the Culture of Corruption just to punch the "R" on the ballot..

[Tiggeroshii]

38. We'll see in June.

Really the later the runoff happens teh better. Have a good night!

[cascadiance]

41. I think "other votes" might count provisionals...

Don't know how significant the number of new voters (of which 23% or so might have not been "registered" with McPherson's newest voter database mess), but if a lot of new voters voted, there might be a number of provisionals to look at too. Most likely though, they won't be significant to affect the outcome.

I know the precinct I was working told me that they had something like 3-4 provisional ballots in addition to the 50 regular votes they had cast around 4:00 PM. Afterwards I think I might have gotten a few people to vote provisionally who I talked to who'd recently registered and hadn't gotten back voter cards, pamphlets, etc. who I told to go vote provisionally. The problem is that those who did vote provisionally, noone knows the makeup of these people. They were probably not on the voter lists that we were going through, and it's hard to know what demographic makeup they were. The one I talked to seemed rather young, I think part Afro-American, and were just moving into the condos there. I suspect others were similar folks like that. We need to go out on a voter "re-registration" campaign before June to get some of those folks on the registration rolls, which the Rethugs along with McPherson appear to have been trying to remove.

[Capn Sunshine]

44. Thanks to DFA and PDA for their hard work

CA for Democracy numbers Francine among its membership, and PDA was out in force , sponsoring bus trips to the district from farther North LA Area.

Phone banking was accomplished by many including virtula phone banking, where each member called a small list of voters.

According to the NYT this showing by Francine mans the republicans are in deep shit, but you could swing a teherball in that district and hit someone who could tell you that.

[cascadiance]

45. I think in some ways we may have overdone the GOTV efforts...

I've had at least two people and perhaps more (who didn't tell me), who were upset at the barrage of contacts we had with them, and two of them said they were inclined to *NOT* vote for Francine because of that. One of them I think I talked out of it, but the other seemed pretty dead set to not change her mind.

I was telling our Dem leader that perhaps we need to have better means to keep track of the contacts we make with folks, so that we don't reach that tipping point with any of them. Have some way to determine if they are and have some central DB that indicates who's at that limit, so that we don't turn off voters too.

Some might be good to do some further persuading. Others might be better left alone to make their own decision. Trying to figure out who is or who isn't is probably more of an art than a science, and perhaps hard for most of us that aren't professionally trained at sensing this when we're the grunts making the calls and knocking on doors, etc.

I think we need to take care and not treat this too much like a telemarketing setup, which I think it might have gotten to at some point. With telemarketing, you don't care as much about the people you PO in the process of trying to reach that small group of people you can arm twist into buying stuff with. With elections, we need to have a high percentage satisfaction rate, and that means trying to measure folks' satisfaction and trying to keep them satisfied on any subsequent contacts we might make. I don't have all of the answers for this, but I do sense a problem here that perhaps needs to be dealt with constructively before June timeframe.

[Capn Sunshine]

46. You just gave me a flashback to Iowa

On the ground there, people were REALLY tweaked with the number of contacts they were getting.

I think if you could get into specifics with me in a PM it might help DFA hone or soften their message. I have no influence over the PDA except that I talk to them ogften and we share some members.

[thatsrightimirish]

47. the good news is

The Democratic turnout should be better in June because of the Democratic Primary between Westly and Angelides on the same ballot. And her percentage did go up from the last time she ran.