Democrats eye big House gains
Energized by GOP scandals, they grow more confident of winning control of Congress.By Linda Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
WASHINGTON – California Democrat Francine Busby's first-place showing in Round 1 of Tuesday's special congressional race may give her party a jolt of optimism in its quest to retake the House in November.
But come the June 6 runoff, analysts say, reality will set in: The seat she seeks to occupy, the one vacated by the now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R), represents a strong Republican district and the odds are steep against her in a two-person race against a Republican. The GOP has a 15-point registration advantage in the San Diego district. In at least the past 40 years, the Democrats have never defeated a Republican in a district with more than about a four-point GOP registration advantage, says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.
Still, Democrats remain energized about November, when every House seat is up for election, and they seek to wipe out a 15-seat Republican margin of control and then some. Only about 35 of the 435 races are competitive, so there's little room for error. Privately, some GOP political handicappers, in a race-by-race assessment, predict that the Democrats will pull it off, as the national mood toward President Bush and the Republican-ruled Congress sours further.
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The long spate of bad news for Republicans - from indictments in Congress and the White House to a stalled agenda to the Iraq war - has sparked aggressive Democratic recruitment of candidates and fundraising.
Intensity of feeling also favors Democrats. There's little danger that droves of Republicans will vote Democratic, but there is a danger that Republicans will stay home in numbers large enough to swing some contests.
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http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0413/p01s02-uspo.html