CSM: Dems Eye big gains in November

[Tiggeroshii]

Democrats eye big House gains
Energized by GOP scandals, they grow more confident of winning control of Congress.
By Linda Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

WASHINGTON – California Democrat Francine Busby's first-place showing in Round 1 of Tuesday's special congressional race may give her party a jolt of optimism in its quest to retake the House in November.
But come the June 6 runoff, analysts say, reality will set in: The seat she seeks to occupy, the one vacated by the now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R), represents a strong Republican district and the odds are steep against her in a two-person race against a Republican. The GOP has a 15-point registration advantage in the San Diego district. In at least the past 40 years, the Democrats have never defeated a Republican in a district with more than about a four-point GOP registration advantage, says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.



http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0413/p01s02-uspo.html

[mitchtv]

1. Sad but true

I think that she can't squeeze many more Dem votes out of that district 2 or 3% maybe. There is , however the prospect of more republican "bad news", so, you never can tell. Out here in CD45, Bono may be in trouble in another "safe" district, owing to our large Latino and MexAm numbers.I think they've lost the R Catholic vote, possibly for good.

[Clarkie1]

2. Wow. That's a sobering statistic.

"In at least the past 40 years, the Democrats have never defeated a Republican in a district with more than about a four-point GOP registration advantage, says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego."

I wonder if the stats are the same for Republicans attempting to defeat Democrats. Anyone know?

[Tiggeroshii]

3. I'm sure it doesn't include those times when two repugs run, split the vot

e and give it to a dem.

[OzarkDem]

4. Low turnout encouraging

From another news account, I read the turnout for this election was very low. That's great news, meaning disenchanted GOP voters are staying home and not voting, giving a boost to Dem chances of winning.

This factor, if it continues, could play heavily in the November elections also, helping Dems win in heavily GOP areas. Any good Dem campaign strategy should include any means of encouraging low GOP voter turnout.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Also there's the possibility of two GOP candidates./

...depending on how disheartened that roach will be from losing.