Comparing Gasoline Use: Bush States vs. Kerry States (NYT, 04/21/06)

[swag]

Interesting graphic from yesterday's New York Times regarding gasoline consumption in Bush states and Kerry states:



cal04 posted the related article in GD yesterday.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. It's no doubt more a function of

population density. Look at Manhattan, where you have a brazillion people per square mile, as opposed to Wyoming, where the deer and the antelope play.

[swag]

5. Yeah, the urban/rural split definitely figures, as it does with

voter preferences. Correlation is not causation.

Still the correlation is stunning.

[BattyDem]

11. Also, lots of mass transit in NYC and other densely populated areas

You don't have that on the farm. :-)

[HereSince1628]

2. Damned statistics...don't you think geography has a lot to do with this?

This may be one of the GREAT examples of a spurious correlation.

I can think of a handful of reasons _other_ than party affiliation that are related to gasoline consumption.

If the data on all the variables were available a partial correlation would let us figure out the contribution of political affiliation to gas use.

I suspect that distance between home and work is a more powerful contributor to variance than political party.

[LiberalFighter]

4. Those stats also correlate population to politics

[HereSince1628]

7. But what is cause and what is effect?

[sandnsea]

9. Which affects the politics

It's part of listening if you plan to launch a viable campaign in a rural state. They can't use public transportation, they're dependent on vehicles, which is why they see drilling differently than urban Democrats do. Part of winning that vote is going to be convincing them that alternative fuels can be delivered as quickly as ANWR oil can.

[joeprogressive]

18. not everything in this correlation is spurious

many progressives move to these areas because they have better standards of living in many categories such as health care, education, etc. These people tend to drive smaller cars and are more environmentally conscience. Take Texas and California for example. They are about the closest as far as rural/urban mix and state size. I'll bet you California has a much lower per capita consumption because of the cars they choose to drive, car pool lanes, and mass transit. Just a guess.

[HereSince1628]

19. What variables are likely to be predictors of car use and miles driven?

You really think political party is the strongest predictor?

What do you think are most important in putting miles on a family car every week?
I'm not a transportation expert but I'd say four of the big contributors are (not necessarily in order of importance):

Miles driven commuting to work/school.
Miles driven taking family or family members to activities/recreation.
Miles driven to shops/services.
Automobile choice/gas mileage

Lets admit right away that a car like my Ford escort can use a lot more gas than an SUV depending on how many miles get driven.

Each of these has many determinants, most of which cannot be directly or cleanly assigned to party affiliation. I'm not an expert so I am sure the following list is not comprehensive but I don't think I've intentionally left anything out that is tied to a particular political affiliation. And these factors seem to be factors that could impinge on mileage of any driver.


Driving to work/school...
--distance/availability of work
occupation (perhaps number of different jobs)
availability & preference in housing
safety & educational consideration
family roots
distance to a previous job
availability of alternate commuter transportation
population density of home neighborhood
distance to connecting points for alternate transportation
travel time
type of available alternative transport

Driving family members to activities/recreation
Distance to activities
distance from school
size of school district...i.e. distance to competitions
distance from church/other activities
Family size
Level of family participation in activities
Age of family members

Driving to shops/services
Distance between home and stores/distance between stores
preferences of stores
quality, availability, price
type of home neighborhood

Type of vehicle driven
Preference in type
Preference in quality or ride
time spent in the vehicle
occupation
distances from destinations
Sense of vehicle safety/prevailing road conditions
Requirements to meet particular needs (horse power, standard vs automatic
transmission, 2 wheel vs 4 wheel drive etc)
occupational (construction workers, farmers etc. may need a pick-up)
recreational needs (person may need to haul a kayak)
Size of family
Age of family members
Availability of second vehicle in family
family income
number of employed people in the family
number of drivers in the family
Maintenance of the vehicle--particularly tire pressure
Driving styles
Acceleration/breaking patterns
Highway vs. city driving
Cruising vs. consolidated runs on errands

[wakeme2008]

3. I love it

While some poster attack this because of population etc... the Fact remains, the new gas prices hit Bush state hardest.

[ellenfl]

6. "the new gas prices hit Bush state hardest."

and will hopefully make them the angriest.

ellen fl

[swag]

8. That 33% approval rating certainly reflects something.

Speaking of correlations, here's another good one:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/10/presidential_ap.html

[Jeffersons Ghost]

17. FINALLY an easy to grasp graph that's plausible

I feel sure Kerry will get the blame for fuel prices that Republicans so RICHLY deserve.
here' a correlation:
Rich Rep. Oil men get power in DC = Fuel prices going through the roof
Instability in the Mid-East ALWAYS = higher crude prices
Katrina = a big excuse for EXXON to set an all time record for profits by a US corp.
Bush and other Republicans = nothing but lip service
All this crap = a great excuse to invade protected wild-life areas in Alaska, which has been a long term Republican goal.

[BlueEyedSon]

14. How hard do you need to be hit on the nose with a rolled-up newspaper

before you realize you were a bad dog?

[Lefty48197]

10. Here's another way of saying the same thing:

[BattyDem]

12. LOL!

Yeah ... that just about sums it up! :toast:

[BlueEyedSon]

13. Free states vs slave states

[Doctor_J]

16. Now THAT is fucking scary

Gitmo = Andersonville?

[Clark2008]

15. Except that's not accurate.

THIS is accurate:



It's an urban vs. rural demographic not a blue state vs. red state demographic.