new Zogby national poll shows Dean with 20 pt. lead

[pruner]

Dean 28
Lieberman 8
Gephardt 7
Clark 6
Kerry 4
Undecided 35

Dec 15-17. n=400 likely Dem voters. MOE±5.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=773

[LuminousX]

1. I like it, but something doesn't feel right...

I honestly don't understand how Kerry can be so low in the polls. Dean, Clark, and Kerry have gotten the most press. How can Lieberman be ahead of Kerry (ok, MOE puts them even.)

[Kahuna]

3. All of Zogby's polls have been out of whack with all the others.

Still not much of a kick from the Gore endorsement. The majority of voters are undecided. (35%) Some of those undecideds are likely at Clark's expense. I'll concede that.

[HFishbine]

9. Not out of whack

CBS/NY Times
-------------
Dean 23
Clark 10
Lieberman 10
Gephardt 6


NBC News/Wall Street Journal
---------------------------
Dean 25
Clark 11
Gephardt 11
Lieberman 9

Gallup
--------
Dean 31
Lieberman 13
Clark 10
Kerry 10

As for the Gore effect:

CBS
---
Dean (pre): 14
Dean (post): 23

NBC
---
Dean (pre): 15
Dean (post): 29

Gallup
-------
Dean (pre): 16
Dean (post): 31

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[TexasPatriot]

22. well

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031218.asp

just looking at your Gallup number - you cite:

Gallup
--------
Dean 31
Lieberman 13
Clark 10
Kerry 10

Gallup cites:
2003 Dec 15-16

Dean 27
Lieberman 12
Clark 12
Gephardt 7
Kerry 7
Edwards 6
Sharpton 6
Braun 3
Kucinich 2
Undecided/Other 18

and that doesnt address the 6 pt drop in Dean support from the previous poll, nor the massive fall in his head to head vs bush numbers.

what i want to know is how deep is the support - for all the candidates... and who does the support move to as the field thins.
the rest of this is probably pseudo-news

[Demobrat]

10. Most of Kerry's coverage has been about his attacks on Dean.

What I've seen anyway. People don't like that.

[LuminousX]

19. That's a good point

I don't think the poll is out of whack, I just feel I'm having a perception problem as I perceived Kerry to be better than he seems to be polling.

[Larkspur]

2. Wow!

This is amazing!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Thank You Al

Gore. not.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

5. Yeah, but notice the Undecided - 35%!

Dean will win Iowa and New Hampshire, because Clark entered late and is ignoring Iowa altogether - just trying to come in 2nd in NH. Clark is going to surge after a win in South Carolina (really think a southern state is going to go for a Vermonter?), then after that it'll be fun.

[pruner]

8. Dean is a couple of points ahead of Clark in SC right now

:spank:

[Kahuna]

12. Andrew Young will take care of that. I know Young is before..

your time. But, trust me. He's a heavy weight with black voters.

[seventhson]

14. But Jesse Jackson Jr and Sheila Jackspn Lee are Heavier

than old Andy Young

[Kahuna]

24. I don't think so.

:7

[John_H]

30. Yeah ol' Andre Young quakes in his boots at the very thought

of Shiela Jackson Lee and her mighty organization!

[Rufus T. Firefly]

16. Yeah, but again, look at the numbers:

Dean 11%
Clark 9%
Lieberman 9%
Gephardt 7%

Dean isn't exactly running away with it. And there are a hell of a lot of undecideds - if Clark is strong in NH, then SC is his.

[KaraokeKarlton]

18. Dean has only just recently opened offices in SC

He hasn't done much there compared to the other places, but he's fixing to kick into high gear in SC.

[LuminousX]

21. I hope it happens soon

I feel letters need to have been written already for South Carolina.

[newyawker99]

28. Hi RUFUS_T_FIREFLY!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[opihimoimoi]

6. Its the MESSAGE stupid, LOL

The message is DEAN is coming and going to win,

this despite calls of "killing the messenger"

Le MESSAGE iz; Lets Do It Right, and Lets Do It For the Common Good

[joefree1]

7. This spells doom for presidential handlers everywhere

Bush finds Saddam, Dean speaks his mind, Rethuglicans dump on Dean, the media dumps on Dean, Democrats dump on Dean, ... and he still gets twenty points?!!


Images from Dean Rocks the House of Blues, Hollywood
From wtmusic http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=919849
From Joefree1 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=921300

[Kahuna]

11. Another thing! If Clark does the best against bush...

It would appear that the repubs and moderates realize more that Clark is the best against bush than the democrats. Bummer.

[HFishbine]

13. RU

asking us to vote for a canidate who is more appealing to republicans?

[seventhson]

17. LOL No. he is asking you to vote FOR

a Republican (or a former one anyway)!!!

[stickdog]

15. Takes one to know one. (nm)

[LuminousX]

20. Maybe Clark should run as an Independent

[FrenchieCat]

23. Are the actual questions asked by zogby listed somewhere...

What I have to say about Zogby, I've said before:
the Zogby polls are being used by these media sources to create this front runner status. The Zogby poll will be reported from an Associated Press writer, and then splash out all over the news media. I find this disturbing, as other polls don't get the same type of exposures Many of the other pollsters are more accurate with a higher accuracy rating and their numbers don't add up to the Zogby polls, e.g., American Research Group.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/cgi-bin/r.cgi/PollingFirmList.html

The Zogby polls are "push polls" meaning the questions asked lead to desired answers. I am requesting assistance with this issue as I am becoming very frustrated that the corporate media has decided to select the Democratic candidate for us. As Hillary Clinton said, pundits don't pick Presidents, people do. I just don't see how we will get that chance. It all feels like a big set up. I am including an analysis of the Zogby polling method and the media propaganda that is going on in these United States. I conclude that Zogby polls are inaccurate and biased. Please see the case that I am making below:

http://www.cesame-nm.org/Standards/Zogby.pdf Please read for comments on Zogby's methodology and his reputation. Please note this passage from the 8 page report from Chris Mooney, the American Prospect, January 13, 2003. "Zogby is unusual in the extent to which he has blended partisan and interest groups polling with credibility-enhancing contracts for media outlets such as Reuters, NBC News, MSNBC, and numerous newspapers and television stations. As Zogby himself acknowledges, the repute he derives from media polling helps him sell his services to more self interested clients. The lucky group end up with the Zogby brand name attached to findings that advance their agendas. "Media organizations should have people who absolutely aren't polling for interest groups", observed Robert Blendon, who directs Harvard University's Program of Public Opinion and Health and Social Policy. Blendon notes that most major polling conglomerates, such as ABC News/Washington Post poll, maintain firewalls between their work and outside interests." But there is more. Read at your leisure.

Also please see the wording of the poll (sample here is New Hampshire), but my understanding is that's how it's being done all over.http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750 Please note that questions 2, 5 & 6 are Push Poll questions. Those questions asked will later elicit a desired answer when asking which of the candidates to you favor. Question 2 is biased against General Wes Clark. Questions 5 & 6 are biased pro Howard Dean, and biased against most of the other candidates
--------------------
Zogby New Hampshire Poll

Regardless of how you intend to vote, in your view, how likely is it that George W. Bush will be re-elected?

Should the Democratic party nominate someone who is a lifelong Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent convert to their way of thinking?

Overall, how would you rate the job performance of George W. Bush as President?

Regardless of how you may vote in next year's presidential election, would you say you like or dislike George W. Bush as a person?

Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2004, do you think it is important that the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate who opposed the war with Iraq on principle, or should the party select someone who voted to...

In a race for president, would you be more likely to support a Democratic candidate who supported the war in Iraq, or would you be more likely to support George W. Bush?
---------------------------
Furthermore, I have 3 samples of newspaper stories, over a given period of time, which basically say the same thing. That one particular candidate is not going to make it...he has faded, or fizzled......the same person that says the same thing is John Zogby. Now that should be a story!


http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/41887.htm Here's an article talking about Clark's slowing momentum, titled
DEM DEAN'S ROCK SOLID IN GRANITE STATE Dated October 25, 2003....using Zogby poll as reference.]

Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has zoomed into a "juggernaut" lead in the key presidential primary state of New Hampshire while retired Gen. Wesley Clark's support has sagged into single digits, a new poll shows.
Dean is at 40 percent - more than double Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) who is second at 17, followed by Clark and Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) tied for third at 6 percent each in the Zogby International poll.

Several prior polls put Clark at 10 or 11 percent and clearly in third in New Hampshire, but this survey suggests "The General" has fizzled in the wake of Iraq flip-flops and the revelation that he praised President Bush and voted for Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

"Clark's fizzle is the key to these numbers. Clark was hurting Dean. Now Clark has just collapsed and the direct beneficiary is Dean," said pollster John Zogby.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1091321,00.html Here's another attempt....1 month later! Smear piece Titled "Democrats' general on the retreat" - In another valiant attempt to squelch Clark's momentum - Dated November 23, 2003 - Story uses Zogby quotes on what's wrong with the Clark Campaign.
As President George W. Bush arrives home from his state visit to Britain, he will have the satisfaction of seeing Clark's campaign in crisis. It is low on funds, has lost key staff and is fizzling out in key battleground states.
Meanwhile, the campaign of Vermont governor Howard Dean has captured the public imagination, securing his place as the frontrunner in the still crowded field of nine Democrat candidates.

'There was tremendous potential in Clark as a candidate, but there have been major problems in the execution,' said John Zogby, head of polling organization Zogby International which conducted research for Clark supporters before the general's announcement that he was joining the race.

That caused dismay among many supporters. 'People know that if Clark wins the Democrat nomination, those quotes are just a Republican attack ad waiting to happen,' Zogby said.

Now, here's a quote from the MSNBC story just out today. Here's a quote , notice who's doing the talking. http://www.msnbc.com/news/1001091.asp?0cv=CB20," Pollster John Zogby said Dean is strong in all regions and among all voter groups. The poll of 503 Democratic and independent voters was taken Dec. 1-3 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points."

this is IMO is the American Travesty - Called circular reporting based on biased push polls......a la Arnold!

[slinkerwink]

25. that's great news!

[_Jumper_]

26. Yet he is being obliterated by Bush

He looks more and more like another Mondale each day. :scared:

[FrenchieCat]

27. Yep, this is what Polipundit thinks of the polls:

MORE FROM RW SITE POLIPUNDIT...STILL CHEERING DEAN ON!
http://polipundit.com
Dean Lead Grows

Howard Dean's lead is growing nationally and in New Hampshire.
posted by PoliPundit at 5:41 AM Link to this post | Comments (7)
SEE THE 7 COMMENTS BELOW

Isn't Rasmussen the one that so badly messed up the 2000 polls or I am thinking of someone else? I am just wondering because it is hard to believe that Dean is that far ahead nationally because before it was very close between him and Clark.
JeffP | 12.17.03 - 8:26 am | #I
found this link that has a listing of recent Dem national polls. Dean's lead of 15% over Clark is on the high side, but not out of line. These polls are all over the place.

Polls

I will post it as my homepage in case I messed up the HTML.
JeffP | Homepage | 12.17.03 - 8:33 am | #
Jeff,
Rasmussen did indeed screw up the 2000 polling. He had Bush up by 8 or 9 point right up to election night. His website at the time, "Portrait Of America" shut down a short time later.

I'm looking at the polls, too. They are all looking very good for Dean. I'm waiting for the one where Dean's vote surpasses his nearest competitor and the "no opinion" choice as well.

In Rasmussen's poll he's 5 points behind (a significant improvement from a month ago!),

Dean: 26%
Lieberman: 13%
Not Sure: 18%
Leiberman and Not Sure: 31%
Scott Elliott | Email | Homepage | 12.17.03 - 12:53 pm | #
Any idea why so many pollsters like Rasmussen got it wrong in 2000. Was it the DUI story? Was Bush really ahead or was the vote for Gore always understated? I'd be interested in people's thoughts.

FWIW, I think Zogby was the only one who got it right in 00. I hate to say that b/c his analysis drips with liberal spin, but his numbers were good.
Thomas Gordon | Email none | 12.17.03 - 2:33 pm | #
Thomas,

Any idea why so many pollsters like Rasmussen got it wrong in 2000.
Rasmussen and the Battleground poll - voter.com - were the ones who missed it the most as I recall - they both had Bush way ahead.

Was it the DUI story?
That story certainly had a big effect on the final numbers. As PoliPundit has stated, undecided who would usually break for the party out of power (GOP) broke instead for Gore by a 5 to 1 margin. The effect Bush's DUI had on the vote was the biggest story of the election - besides Florida, of course.

Was Bush really ahead or was the vote for Gore always understated? Yes and yes. Bush's lead vanished the last couple of days (see above). The polls who missed so badly had two problems.
1. They overestimated Republicans in their samples.
2. They underestimated the Democratic's GOTV machine. Remember this election was the Dem GOTV effort's last hurrah.

That's two things we won't have to worry about next year. T
Scott Elliott | Email | Homepage | 12.17.03 - 2:50 pm | #
...darn truncation!

There will be no more DUI stories, and the GOP's GOTV has matched the Dems'.
Scott Elliott | Email | Homepage | 12.17.03 - 2:52 pm | #
Well, it's happened.

"I'm waiting for the (poll) where Dean's vote surpasses his nearest competitor and the "no opinion" choice as well."

The latest Gallup poll shows Dean at 31%. Second-place Leiberman(13%) and Other/None/NoOpinion(15%) add up to 28%. Now we can truly say Dean is not only a front-runner but the prohibitive favorite as well.

I don't see anyone catching him.
Scott Elliott | Email | Homepage | 12.17.03 - 6:07 pm | #

[John_H]

29. Drudge loves this poll. Tweety will say it's over. Crowley did already.

Why do these former bush operatives suddenly looooooooove howard Dean?

Why did the Dean campaign have such a gigantic hissy fit over the foreign policy experience ad?

Ask yourself. Answer yourself honestly.

[poskonig]

31. The establishment campaigns have to hate this.

If Lieberman, Gephardt, Clark, and Kerry joined forces, they may get 25% of the vote and still trail Dean.

Perhaps pressure can be exerted on Kerry and Gephardt to drop out, since Clark seems to be the best "stop-Dean" candidate.