Bush's Slide Deeper Than Any One Poll Shows

[Bob Geiger]

Let's face it, watching George W. Bush's approval rating tick incrementally down to the single digits he has so rightfully earned is in some ways the political equivalent of watching paint dry. We know he's going down and the relevant issue seems to be when that will happen. At this point, the only interesting thing in examining individual approval polls is wondering how uninformed or Kool-Aid drunk this thirty-something percent must be to still actually believe he is doing a good job.

What's more instructive, is to look at where he started and how far he has fallen in just 18 months since the 2004 presidential election. On November 2, 2004, Bush received a 50 percent or more vote of confidence in 31 of 50 states --30 states if you believe he did not legitimately win Ohio. How many states give him that same vote just a year and a half later, based on April 2006 approval polls? Four.

Let's go to the maps:


If you ignore the too-little-too-late sadness we are all inclined to feel, it's an amazing sight to see so many of our countrymen getting a clue after all this time. Think about it: Bush has gone from people in 31 states effectively giving him a positive approval rating in November 2004 to only these states giving him the same nod now (with April approval ratings):

• Idaho 53%
• Nebraska 51%
• Utah 55%
• Wyoming 54%

Keep in mind also, that these four states collectively make up barely two percent of the 296.5 million people in the United States based on a July 2005 Census Bureau estimate, so in sheer numbers, it's not quite the same as if people in New York, California or Texas still like him.

What's also interesting is to see which states are abandoning Bush to the greatest degree. When measured by what percentage vote they gave Bush in 2004 compared to the latest approval ratings, here are the states in which the president has lost the most support:

• Kentucky -21%
• Indiana -21%
• North Dakota -20%
• Montana -20%

And there are many other states not far behind, where the unpopular president has lost between 15 and 19 percent of his support.

And, while it’s just a matter of time before Bush goes below 30 percent nationally, here's the states already ahead of the curve in recognizing just what a lousy leader this guy really is (with current approval ratings):

• Connecticut 27%
• Delaware 27%
• Illinois 29%
• Massachusetts 26%
• New Jersey 28%
• New York 24%
• Rhode Island 24%
• Vermont 27%

Finally, in case you're wondering how he's doing back in the Lone Star State, Bush is clinging to a dismal 45 percent approval rating in his home state, with 17 percent loss of support since 2004.

At this rate, he may not even be able to go back home to Crawford after he's impeached.

You can reach Bob Geiger at [e-mail] and read more from him at Democrats.com.

[TAPat]

1. Thanks - Interesting &

Welcome to DU :hi:

[Canuckistanian]

9. Bob Geiger may be new here

But, he's an experienced blogger and has just joined Democrats.com:
http://www.democrats.com/blog/8223

Congrats, Bob!
:toast:

[EVDebs]

23. When AK and the Deep South show as Blue, you KNOW it's over with

four Team Bush. His cred, both street cred and 'ideological' cred are in tatters. The Emperor truly has no clothes on and it's getting painful to watch him go about his official duties...it just adds more fuel to the fire his administration is immolating itself in. As a patriotic American, I can only say he should resign for the good of the country NOW, but as a progressive I can only say that the longer he keeps this up the better off the 'blowback' will be.

In the end, Bush will have ended up electing more Democrats. Now that's something to be optimistic about ! Perseverance, DUers !

[TheLeftyMom]

46. what a lovely site

Kansas blue. Sigh. It's a lovely site, but I fear we'll swing back red soon enough! LOL

[Lucky Luciano]

69. What a tool

[General Lee]

85. Just think Ev

that bush's latest approval rating is around 32%. A little more and his rating will equal his IQ!!! Ask yourself the following: If bush could run again, for whom would I vote for:



IQ = 38

(A more than worthy intellectual challenge for bush!)



IQ = 27

Does anyone have any doubt who they would vote for???

[hlthe2b]

24. A hearty welcome to you, Bob!

Glad to have you among us! :7

[Warpy]

2. 17,000 people in New Mexico had their votes erased

To believe otherwise you must believe that 17,000 people left their comfortable houses to go stand in line to vote for a local judge and ignored the general election.

Democrats swept the races for judges.

We have now gone to 100% paper, optical scan ballots.

Never again.

[Atman]

3. This will make it all the more amazing to watch the GOP win in 2006

I still don't doubt they'll hold onto power. BushCo will find a way to spin it -- America trusts the GOP with their security, some bullshit. The question is, what will happen when they do steal it?

My doubt; perhaps they realize that they're cooked, and that they've fucked up everything, and their best political move would be to allow the dems to take over the shitstorm they've created and then work on blaming them with the piper comes to be paid.

[Mrspeeker]

41. yeah

they steal every election to line their pockets literally robbing the national treasury. What would be better then to let the Dem's have it for 4 years so that the repubs can wave their flag saying its all the Democrats fault now. At the same time Democrats will be building a stronger economy by trying to balance americas check book, so that the economy will be strong when the repubs take back over.

Or is their really a side anymore besides big business and corporation interests?

A democracy with one party in total control is not a democracy.


hey enjoy the show thats all it is now!

[mconvente]

48. That's why we need to keep data on all this

Show beyond any doubt mathematically that Dems won where there will be (if there is, which is a valid concern) cheating in 2006.

[wake.up.america]

47. I would strongly suggest people now make contingency plans should ...

Bush (Proxy) and Co win in 2008.

[Canuckistanian]

4. Excellent post

You're right, when you dig into the specifics of those poll numbers, it sure looks even more dismal for the Chimp-In-Chief.

And rightly so.

[RedEarth]

5. Good work ..... love the graphics..

I've been looking for a chart that shows all the polls and the downward spiral of shrubs popularity......if you happen to find it please post a link......

[Zambero]

22. Try this on for size

This graphic is limited to Bush's 2nd term. What speaks volumes is the comparison to Clinton's poll numbers during the equivalent timeframe, which actually trended upward following the '96 election.

http://www.intelligencesquad.com/id137.html

[RedEarth]

25. Great..... thanks for the link...

it really shows what a disaster shrub is.

[electropop]

36. Try these:

pollkatz is brilliant:
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com

[LynzM]

37. Awesome graphs

Thanks for sharing that first one!!

[RedEarth]

55. Great.... those are the ones I'm looking for..... thanks

[Bandit]

59. Boy I sure wouldn't buy a stock with a chart like that..

Funny America would buy such..:shrug:

[kymar57]

65. why I visit DU

Stuff like this. Love the drain graph
:toast:

[OldLeftieLawyer]

6. Beautiful, and thank you, and

welcome to DU.

What a great way to start my day!

Thanks again, and stay close, Bob Geiger.

[mtnsnake]

7. I love geography!

The "thirty-something percent" that "actually believe he is doing a good job" don't believe it that at all. They're simply stubborn and not gonna admit what everyone else is admitting about their man.

If you gave everyone a lie detector test, I'd have to believe that Bush's approval ratings would hover right around 2%.

Nice maps!

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

8. Bob, I Like your post...I like your post alot! Welcome. Kick,

And Recommended.

The fall this guy has taken, really has been amazing to watch.
Thank you for putting up those numbers.

[eyepaddle]

10. Now there's a morning pick-me-up!

It's been said before--Welcome to DU! :hi:

[BlueEyedSon]

11. i say let the 4 states for bush form their own country

WINU?
WUNI?

[Inland]

12. I was just noticing we could give them to Canada.

Look, there's a border with Idaho.

That would require sacrificing the near fifty percent that disapprove of Bush, but.....

[BlueEyedSon]

14. i dont think canada would take them

[leftyladyfrommo]

17. Nah, I have good friends in those states.

[DarleenMB]

42. NO PLEASE ...

I'm embarrassed to admit I live in Wyoming. But trust me when I tell you we have some rabid and ACTIVE Democrats in this state. We also have a Democratic governor, so all is NOT lost.

We just have a lot of lunk heads who can't admit they made a mistake.

[Kierkegaard]

44. I say...

let's impose a draft on those states to furnish new cannon fodder for *'s disastrous Iraq 'war.' Better yet, let's sit them down and see if they can look into the eyes of an Iraqi mother who has lost her entire family and tell her that she is better off now.

I say let's make those states fill the hole left by the enormous tax cuts for the rich. I say let's make them feed, shelter, cloth and medicate all the 'little' people whom have footed the bill for those tax cuts. I say let's make them pay for all the dashed hopes of higher education that were brought about by cutbacks in funding. I say let us pipe in all the mercury and arsenic impregnated water, contaminated food and unbreathable air for them to enjoy as a result of *'s rape of our environmental laws.

I say let's clue them in to what the phrase 'ownership society' really means.

*Of course, the good Dems residing in these states are exempt from my evil plan...

[melissinha]

13. regarding Texas

Finally, in case you're wondering how he's doing back in the Lone Star State, Bush is clinging to a dismal 45 percent approval rating in his home state, with 17 percent loss of support since 2004.

I still see way too many W04 stickers in the liberal oasis of Austin, but it would be nice to see the disapproval translate into Congressional losses this November.

:kick::yoiks:

[hobbit709]

15. True but

compared to a year ago, I see about 10% of the stickers that I used to.

[leftyladyfrommo]

16. You know, I don't see stickers anymore, either.

I also don't here people talking about it like they used to. Its like people just don't mention it at all.

[melissinha]

27. you're right but I don't want to see ANY

They just make me angry at how complacent people can be.... proud of a crook, good goin.

[blue state liberal]

63. Saw a Bush-Cheney sticker

on an SUV being driven by an older guy while I was riding in an auto behind him in Florida. This made me (a Blue stater) so angry that I, an old granny of five, passed him and flipped him the bird and blew my horn. Felt a little better after that. We don't see many Bush stickers in my state and I recently replaced my Kerry-Edwards sticker with "Enough is enough - vote Democratic."

[bigscott]

34. ummmmm

his homestate is Connecticut - unfortunately for me - where is his support is 27%

he is NOT a texan - he just plays one on TV

[Jane Austin]

57. And I see more and more Wtf stickers.

I do see a couple of W04 stickers on my way in from Elgin, but it's the same minivan and the same SUV every day.

I'm willing to bet that most of the W stickers belong to Republican office holders at the Capitol or Repub. party employees. :)

Austin is the state capital and sadly, Republicans are in control of all branches of state government.

No surprise that there are some W stickers.

[Ganja Ninja]

18. The only way this guy can salvage any kind of legacy at all is ...

to produce the dead corpse of Osama bin Laden. That's it! There's nothing else, no terror attack will help him now. Starting another war will only hurt his poll numbers. He's got no other choice but to find the man he's been using all this time as a boogieman to frighten American's into supporting him.

[glitch]

20. At this point who would believe it? Only the people who want to.

The bottom 30. Even the little science they do use is corrupt, so even the dna verification won't fly.

[saltpoint]

19. I wonder if anybody in Joe Lieberman's office can see that

dissatisfaction with Bush is running strong in Connecticut, and that Ned Lamont is offering a candidacy that's not aligned WITH Bush.

Those numbers out of Connecticut would suggest that Lamont might give Joe a little jolt.

[JPZenger]

21. Some historical perspective

here's some historical perspective on approval ratings for Presidents:

Eisenhower never went below mid-60s.

JFK never fell below 56 percent

George W. after 9-11 90 percent

Clinton right AFTER he was impeached: 73 percent

George H.W. Bush - 29% during the recession

Nixon before he resigned - 24 percent

Carter during the Iran hostage crisis and the oil shortage - 28 percent

[npincus]

26. Bill Schneider (CNN) said B*sh is headed into the twenties

and said it with certainty. That surprised me a bit. I haven't permitted myself that kind of optimism... do you think it's possible?

Anyway, thanks for the informative post and WELSCOME to DU!

[electropop]

38. I'm confident he'll hit the twenties,

unless he's impeached first.

[dchill]

56. Schneider can afford to have "certainty"...

he knows Bush is already there. Polls have been "weighted" for Bush for his entire "presidency."

[organik]

28. Ohio is not the only state that was stolen in '04.

To accept that there was massive fraud in the 2004 election just answers so many questions - in fact it's the only answer that makes sense.

Everything the Bush Admin has done it has done with complete disregard for the citizens of the US, because they NO LONGER NEED YOUR VOTES!

'06 might be different, because Repub. rating are just so damn low that if they steal it again, it might be terribly obvious this time.

Just watch though - the dirty campaigning, the Karl Rove mud slinging (and blatant lying - as with the radio ads about immigration the Repubs just ran), these factors will tighten up the polls a bit, then on election day expect lots of upset victories at the last minute.

They HAVE to keep their majority, or they'll be prosecuted as the criminals they are.

[rasputin1952]

29. One of the mantles hung on Gore was he didn't carry his own

state. bush has a 45% approval rate in TX.....:evilgrin:

I think TX cheered when bush left the state...he damn near bankrupted the state; now the whole country is is in a shambles. I wonder if TX still wants to claim this dud as their own...? I know CT doesn't want this creep back...:)

[BigYawn]

30. Me thinks the GOP goose is cooked in November 2006

We get House AND Senate.....Bush will be more than
a lame duck, he will become a crippled duck, both
legs gone! Can you picture a duck sitting in a
wheel chair? LMAO

[electropop]

39. He's a dead duck.

Deader'n one of Dick Cheney's tethered ducks.

[AX10]

67. Assuming the following occur:

Fair elections/margins so large that theft is not possible
Oil stays at $3 a gallon or more, causing the economy to slow down
Iraq continues to worsen, which it will.....


Democrats could get 240 seats in the House and 54 in the Senate

[BigYawn]

75. all correct assumptions.......eom

[AX10]

83. Also, a Karl Rove indictment will help us greatly, as will....

all the other GOP indictments and convictions.

[onehandle]

31. Eat it, Freepers. Now you've lost your precious rocks and prairies. nt

[Stevepol]

32. Who knows what states Bush won?

"On November 2, 2004, Bush received a 50 percent or more vote of confidence in 31 of 50 states --30 states if you believe he did not legitimately win Ohio."


Bush lost Ohio by a pretty good margin and also probably last FL, though that can never be known anymore since FL's democracy is totally in cyber space now, so in reality (in the three-dimensional world) FL doesn't have a hint of democracy and there's no way to check or verify a vote in a place that isn't a democracy.

Bush didn't win NM either and probably a couple other states as well where the votes were tabulated on vote theft machines made by Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia, or one of the other clones made by competing mafioso (Hart Intercivic comes to mind).

[Roland99]

33. Something just doesn't smell right with the KY numbers

Maybe it's just the influence of the megachurches around here but I still see quite a few 'W' stickers and such. Saw several yesterday (7 of 11 having been on Ford or Chevy trucks or SUVs)

[stevietheman]

35. It's wild living in a "sea change" state (Kentucky)...

it's becoming ferociously anti-Bush here, where it was the opposite a year and a half ago.

[Beetwasher]

40. So Many Awesome New Posters Lately!

Welcome! :thumbsup:

[liberal N proud]

43. Marvelous

[ThoughtCriminal]

45. "Strongly" Disapprove - soon to be majority

outnumber "Strongly Approve" by about 2 to 1. It won't be long before the "Strongly Disapprove" group is over 50% as Bush desperately tries to embrace his "Base".

We can only hope that he drags the entire RW GOP ideology down with him.

[underpants]

49. Welcome to DU

Nice blog

:hi:

[rniel]

50. Correct that for diebold

and it suddenly turns out a lot more red.

[Old and In the Way]

51. Finally, one election promise that Bush is keeping.

He promised to be a uniter. He's spent on that political capital accomplishing that.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

52. Interesting post, and welcome to DU...

...Instead of using November '04 election results as a substitute for approval rating poll results, why not use the same approval rating polls taken around 11/04, as you did for the 04/06 graph? This would remove the effects of Diebold, ESS, Triad, Sequoia, and other forms of disenfranchisement, that made what were in actuality blue states, officially red.

[cliss]

53. Very well-written,

and great graphics. LOVE that Blue! (Especially the lower map) Heh he

[pnorman]

54. NEVER underestimate the depth to which they'll sink to "win".

Remember: They're on a Mission For God!

pnorman

[mahoganydesk]

58. 24% approval rating in CT

was the headline in today's paper. Instant Karma's gonna getcha!!!

[justice1]

60. We might make up 2% of the pop., but 6% of the magic #270.

Why don't you make a graphic based on the number of times Democratic nominees have campaigned in a state, or the money spent by Dems, in relation to votes.

When was the last time a Democratic nominee even bothered to campaign in these states. You can't blame the Republicans, when Democrats gave the states away.

[BelgianMadCow]

61. Now THAT's a topic to KICK - brings lovely perspective

:kick:

[robertpaulsen]

62. Man, that last line made me laugh! Recommended!

:rofl:

:kick:

[upi402]

64. The cancer is in remission

Good art! Very clear point.

[Clarkie1]

66. Very heartening, and intriguing that the 4 pro-Bush states share a border.

It's as if that little piece of red were the core of...what?

[JerseygirlCT]

68. Read this morning that CT is down to 24%... nt

[corporatemedia]

70. CHECK OUT this MAP of GAS prices.by STATE. VERY interesting......

http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturemap.aspx

3 out of the 4 states that are still "bush states" (WY, UT, and ID) still have (relatively) low gas prices!

How come they have cheaper gas there? Doesn't the cost of transporting it inland drive up the price?

Does anyone know why the gas is so "cheap" there?

[Lucky Luciano]

71. The real estate where the gas stations

are is really fucking cheap...plus the gas taxes in those states is something you may want to look up - states with more urban areas are more likely to have higher gas taxes to discourage driving - though NJ is a notable exception there. There is a lot of oil in WY, but I don't know about refineries - maybe they are also in the area :shrug:

[corporatemedia]

73. Yeah, thanks...

Real estate, taxes, etc. do play a part, but I really don't care to do the research.

It's just that I saw a similar "gas price map" (by state not counties) on a corporate media outlet earlier today. When I got back home to my computer and logged on to DU, I saw this post with that great map and said "shit that map looks familiar" I'm not suggesting any conspiracy to keep Utah a bush state (LOL), but the similarities between the maps is interesting.

[Alcibiades]

77. It's not the taxes

I thought the same thing, and looked it up.

Idaho 25 cents/gal
Wyoming 14
Utah 24.5
Nebraska 25.4

Wyoming is towards the low end, but the others rank as some of the higher gas tax states in the US (NY=31.9, PA=31.1, California's just 18, even "taxaschsetts" has a lower gas tax than these three, at just 23.5 cents/gal.)

Traditionally, the Southeast has had lower prices than other parts of the country, but they seem to be about average now. some of this could be disruption in supply as they get them there oil facilities in the Gulf coast working.

Oil industry folks lay some of the blame on regional formulations of gasoline required by states.

BTW, look at one of the historical charts on gas prices. It's hard to believe gas was just 1.30 at the pump just three years ago.

[Vektor]

72. The original map was painted Diebold red.

I'm sure more than a couple of those "red" states are blue underneath the cover-up - but still, it's nice to see most of the nation has woken up.

[Tom Joad]

74. North Dakota may be the place for bush.

They really need people, towns are dying out. Maybe they can open up a whole new federal prison for bush and rove and cheney and another cell block for kenny lay and the enron boys. a few generals and military commanders will fill up the place nicely. They should start fixing up the place real nice and soon, aint much time before he faces the music.

[infogirl]

76. Bush was not re elected...

and the numbers prove it...you cannot have the numbers he had just one year out....the exit polls did not lie....he lost in a landslide...

[jerry611]

86. Well, even so, Kerry has only himself to blame

Looking at it as a whole, I think Kerry ran the worst campaign I have ever seen. He did absolutely nothing to reach out to moderates or to the other side. And he made war (whether Iraq or Vietnam) the central theme of his campaign.

If the Democrats do this again in 2008, it's going to be a close election again. I think what we need is not someone radial left or radical right. We need a leader in the center that is going to bring both sides together. The politics in this country have become so poisonous, destructive, and polarized that it is destroying the very foundation of our democracy.

[LittleClarkie]

78. What's interesting to me is why he's lost part of his base

He obviously never had us. We are against his policies for the most part. But even those who are FOR his policies are against HIM because he's executed those policies so badly.

[drfresh]

79. technically..

you are comparing two different things. the first graph shows how many people approved of bush that left their house and voted. the second graph shows how many people approved of bush that took a pollster's phone call...the samples are different. And keep in mind there was only 61% turnout of eligible voters, and not all who answer polls are eligible voters.

But the basic idea is there, and I like what I see :)

[opihimoimoi]

80. 5 straight Losing Seasons will get any Coach the DOOR in the NFL

Bush will be the only President to get 8 Losing Seasons...His whole 2 terms are looking like SHIT...

The Fans know when to get the HOOK .... to get the Pubs and their Bush outta there...that right....Bush is their tar baby, they bought his shit all the way and lied cheated stole for him...now, they will have to pay a price for their stupid backing/ways.

[saltpoint]

81. It would be interesting to know, too, what percentage of Bush's "base"

is so depressed about voting in 06 that they'll just stay home.

That works for me. I don't think we can persuade them to vote blue, so it wouldn't be all bad to have them not show up at all.

[Raster]

82. Crawford never was "home." It's a set, specifically staged to give

the pResident that down-home Texas look and feel and maintain the illusion he's Texas and has deep roots in the state. He and his family are yankee carpetbaggers, for sale to the highest bidder. In this go-round, it's the Texas White-boy Petroleum Mafia.

[Supersedeas]

84. so when will Nebraskans wake up?