Democratic Incumbents Stronger Than RepublicansIn its polling,
Democracy Corps "uses the actual candidate names in each congressional race (and generic language in cases where there is no clear nominee), providing a level of specificity lacking from any other national measure of the congressional contest." Here are the striking results:
- In contests where a
Democratic incumbent is running for re-election (199 House seats in this database), the Democratic candidates enjoy a 26-point advantage and claim a strong majority of the votes (57 to 31 percent) - In
open seats with no incumbent running in this cycle (20 House seats), the
Democratic advantage is even higher -- a remarkable 63 to 28 percent - Most importantly, in races where a
Republican incumbent is running for re-election (217 House seats), the Republican candidate leads by just 4 points (42 to 46 percent) and fails to claim majority support -- a sharp contrast from the strong position of Democratic incumbents. http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/04/25/democratic_incumbents_stronger_than_republicans.htmlhttp://www.democracycorps.com/weekly/Public_Polling_Report_-_April_24_06.pdf