Mark Warner - Democratic Underground

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Sun Apr-30-06 02:22 PM
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Mark Warner

Meet Mark Warner, the Next U.S. President
AO's citizen economist makes a bold prediction.

ericjanszen | POSTED: 03.22.06 @07:00
I'm going to go out on a limb and make a political prediction: Governor Mark Warner will win the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

I don't make this statement lightly. Three weeks ago, I attended a private roundtable held at Charles River Ventures in Waltham, Massachusetts. We had gathered to hear ex-venture capitalist Mark Warner, a conservative Democrat and ex-Governor of Virginia who's running for President in 2008.

Most of the audience was comprised of venture capitalists. You'd be surprised how many Democrats occupy the high-risk, high-return, low-liquidity segment of the banking industry known as venture capital. I also noticed at least one card-carrying Republican in the audience. I interpret his presence as an indicator of how strongly the need for change is felt, even among stalwart Republican party members.

I was skeptical going in, though I'd read what little is available online about Governor Warner's positions on foreign policy, fiscal policy, energy, education, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
http://www.alwayson-network.com/comments.php?id=14412_0_24_0_C

I went for three reasons. First, because I, like most Americans, am looking for an alternative to the current administration, but one that isn't positioned primarily as a critic of said administration—that's too easy—and is instead able and willing to honestly confront the grave problems we face as a nation and lay out a plan to address them, including a clear explanation of the sacrifices each of us is going to have to make to turn America back into the country we want it to be. Second, because I was invited by someone I deeply respect. Third, for the novelty of meeting an anti-gun control Democrat, especially given that Governor Mitt Romney of my state of Massachusetts, who is also an ex-venture capitalist with presidential aspirations, is a pro-gun control Republican. Clearly, this is not going to be an election in which the two major parties run candidates along traditional party platforms.

Here's what I learned.

Iraq/Afghanistan Wars
I posed a direct question to Governor Warner on Iraq: "The Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq has been characterized by a conflation of dishonesty and incompetence. First we're told that the Iraqi people are behind us. Any talk of an insurgency and comparisons to Vietnam is foolish and unpatriotic. Then, after the insurgency becomes too large to ignore and sectarian fighting has become apparent, we are told that yes, there is an insurgency, but it's manageable, and any talk of civil war is irresponsible and ill informed. Recently Iraq's defense minister himself warned of the risk of an 'endless civil war.' How are you going to put a stop to this and create a positive outcome in Iraq?"

In response, we got a reasoned, well informed and passionate explanation. To paraphrase, Warner said that the operation has been too badly planned and executed to leave any truly good options at this point. But the least bad options available today are to 1) bring in outside help from other countries and non-U.S. corporations to begin to rebuild basic security and infrastructure so that most Iraqi citizens experience a degree of security and quality of life that builds good will toward the U.S. and its new allies, and 2) develop a plan with the Iraqi government and new allies that both prevents the country from splitting into three separate nations (which is likely to lead to a complete loss of stability in the region) and provides clear milestones for the gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops over time.

As for other pressing issues, here's what I heard from Governor Warner...

Energy
We need to reduce our dependence on foreign sources of energy. For practical reasons, given the level of energy demand that exists in the U.S. today, that means that we need to put nuclear energy back on the table. (I've always been a fan of nuclear energy, to the chagrin of my fellow Natural Resource Studies classmates at UMass Amherst in the 1980s.)

Foreign Policy
We need to rebuild relationships with allies who have been alienated by the unilateral actions of the Bush administration.

Fiscal Policy
No free lunch. We need spending cuts and tax increases. The cuts and increases need to be fair, spreading the inevitable pain fairly among those who are least and best able to bear it, just as Warner did to balance the budget in Virginia.

Education
Prepare America's children for a future of global competition with relevant educational training and incentives, as Warner did in Virginia.

I liked what I heard and was impressed by Warner. The fact is, America needs an accomplished, honest, competent, effective and elect-able candidate for president. I have the same feeling about Warner that I had about Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou when I met him at another VC-sponsored event in Boston in the summer of 2005. Both are elect-able men who can bridge major political divides and lead their respective countries out of harm's way. (Emotionally, I prefer the Taiwanese president who better represents the ethnic majority—my wife is Taiwanese—versus Ma who is Chinese and is more closely aligned with the Chinese minority elite in Taiwan. But Ma offers a practical solution to a potentially very dangerous situation between Taiwan and China over the next few years.)

Warner may be labeled by many Democrats as a pro-gun Republican in Democrat's clothing, and by Republicans as a classic pro-tax Democrat. If Warner and Romney turn out to be the two front runners for the Democratic and Republican parties respectively, some Americans may wish they had a chance to choose between two candidates from more respectable professions than venture capital, like peanut farming or acting.

I'm not in the business of making political endorsements, but of making economic predictions (see the For the Record section at iTulip.com). I did not wish for the dotcom bubble to collapse, but I was able to foresee why and when it would. I favored gold over stocks in 2001 not because I have any special affection for gold, but because my analysis pointed to more upside for gold than for stocks when the Fed went into re-flation mode following the inevitable collapse of the stock market: gold was trading at 13% of its inflation-adjusted peak price while stocks were trading far above their historical mean. (And they still are.) Gold was cheap and stocks, even after their so-called correction, were still expensive. Since then, gold has increased from $270 to $540 today, while the stock market, adjusted for inflation, has declined.

My prediction is that Mark Warner will win the 2008 presidential election. I believe he'll do this on a platform of Honesty, Competence and Passion for his country and its people. Considering how early we are in the election cycle, and the fact that Governor Warner came in second behind Hillary Clinton by a two-to-one margin in a recent straw poll, you might find my prediction farfetched. I'll tell you why it isn't in a later commentary. But remember, as usual, you heard it here first.