NOTE: The "Bush hopes for boost from economy" headline is a link on MSNBC's front page (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/). It does not appear on the article's page (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3626796/).President and Mrs. Bush take part in the Friday evening parade at the Marine Barracks in Washington at 8:45 pm. Bush doesn't currently have any public events scheduled before then, but his interview with CNBC's Larry Kudlow will air at 5:00 pm.
The Administration stands ready to try to capitalize on a strong stock market and what they'll call a positive jobs report; per the Labor Department, unemployment held steady in April at 4.7%. Meanwhile, another poll shows Bush's job approval rating at a new low: AP/Ipsos has him at 33%. The poll also shows Congress' job approval rating at a new low and its widest advantage ever for Democrats over Republicans in terms of which party people would prefer to have in the majority on Capitol Hill.
So much attention is being paid to the two parties' prospects in the midterm elections. And so much attention -- maybe even more -- is being paid to 2008 already. Yet there hasn't been much looking at the links between the two. For all the buzz these days about apparent frontrunners McCain and Clinton, how the presidential candidates are positioned going into the 2008 race could depend a great deal on what happens in 2006.
Sen. John McCain is doing whatever he can to help Republicans win this fall. He has endorsed 50 GOP candidates from 28 different states, doled out $16,800 from his leadership PAC to some of them, and appeared at 14 fundraisers and candidate events since April. But if Republicans suffer losses in November, as political analysts expect, McCain might not lose as much sleep as some of his potential GOP rivals. Indeed, a bad 2006 for the GOP could actually boost McCain’s chances in 2008 because Republican voters might be more inclined to support a candidate who’s seen as a reformer and who isn’t directly tied to the Bush White House. “If it’s a bad day for the Republicans, what is the antidote to that?” asks nonpartisan political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. “It is two words: John McCain.”
While GOP losses in 2006 could boost McCain, or a candidate who isn't "of Washington" like former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or a governor, losses could hurt other possible Republican candidates such as Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. “It is difficult to launch a presidential campaign on the heels of losing Senate seats,” says Erik Smith, a Democratic strategist. Smith should know: He was a top aide to former House Leader Dick Gephardt, whose 2004 presidential bid failed to take off after Democrats suffered losses in the 2002 midterm elections. Although he's an outside-the-Beltway contender, Gov. Mitt Romney, who heads the Republican Governors Association, might experience a similar fate if his party loses a significant number of governorships this year; analysts currently predict they could lose as many as six.