Kerry/Edwards ticket - which "red" states do we win?

[ringmastery]

[arewethereyet]

1. none, Edwards cannot help Kerry in the south

better look for help elsewhere.

[ShaneGR]

7. North Carolina, Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, and possibly Florida

Have you seen the polls? Both of them beat Bush in a head to head matchup.

While I'm at it, combining the Catholic centrism and the southern charm, they also carry Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Tennessee.

That ticket will garner 350 electoral votes, at least. Looking west, it will carry Nevada, Washington, New Mexico, California, and... dare I say... Arizona (Pissed off McCain Republicans).

[arewethereyet]

15. love the entheusiasm

but don't be surprized when Bush's numbers rebound as some point after the nomination process is settled.

We are the story right now, there is no value in him fighting it excet in the most token terms. In addition he is throwing out all the damaging crap he can find right now so that it becomes yesterday's news when the right crank up their campaign for real.

Later in the spring is probably when the GOP awakes.

We had better be ready, it won't be pretty.

[Doctor_J]

2. NH, OH

maybe WV, MO

With Kerry/Clark or Clark/Edwards, we win those and maybe SC, AR, AZ, LA

[dolstein]

3. None for certain

Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and West Virginia are possibilities, particularly if the economy remains weak. But I don't see Kerry/Edwards carrying a single southern state.

[JCMach1]

4. nc AND VA would be in play with Edwards on the ticket

as well as the other states mentioned.

[dolstein]

9. Only with Edwards at the top

Kerry will not be able to compete in Virginia or North Carolina, with or without Edwards. No VP candidate has "delivered" their home state for a candidate since LBJ in 1960, and even then Kennedy barely won. And Edwards is not the LBJ of North Carolina politics.

[lastknowngood]

5. not a single one

Kerry can't even compete in a southern state or most western states.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. TN, MO, OH, WV, NH

As a Montanan I have to be an optimist and say MT as well, although I wouldn't bet my mortgage on it. But I really think we have a good chance with a strong gubernatorial candidate as well.

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

[Sandpiper]

8. I'm going to go out on a limb

and say Kerry would definitely take Missouri in the presidential election.

[dolstein]

10. Mind if I saw the limb off?

Missouri has been trending Republican for a while. If Gore couldn't carry it in 2000 (although he did come close), I just don't see how Kerry could do it.

[Sandpiper]

14. Sorry to take your saw from you

But Missouri has never trended one way or the other. It's the ultimate swing state. One year does not make a trend. Clinton carried MO, in 92 and 96. Missouri also voted out John Ashcroft in 2000, and Mel Carnahan would still hold a senate seat if not for his untimely demise. St. Louis has always been a democrat stronghold, and is the most important voting block in the state. Kerry will carry (no pun intended) the show me state for two reasons: catholics and unions.

[dolstein]

17. Sorry, but I'm not done with it yet

Let's not forget this -- there is a senate race and a governor's race, and neither looks good for the Democrats. The Democrats have yet to field a serious challenger to Kit Bond, and the beleaguered Democratic governor is fending off an intraparty challenege. The conditions are not good for a Democratic victory this year, and picking a liberal Northeasterner isn't going to make matters worse.

[Sandpiper]

20. You talk of Missouri as though it was a southern state

It isn't, unless you're talking about near the Arkansas state line.

picking a liberal Northeasterner isn't going to make matters worse.

Missouri isn't part of the old confederacy, the liberal northerner thing is mostly a non issue. Missouri is very catholic and heavily unionized, unlike any southern state.

The Democrats have yet to field a serious challenger to Kit Bond

Kit Bond is practically an institution in Missouri. I'm really not surprised.

and the beleaguered Democratic governor is fending off an intraparty challenege

I feel less worried about an intra party challenge than an inter party challenge. The GOP hasn't sat in the Missouri governor's chair since 1988.

[FeelinGarfunkelly]

22. If I could just jump in...

I do believe Kerry could take MO, despite Gov. One-Term-Bob's problems or the Kit Bond Senate race.

Missouri is very catholic and heavily unionized, unlike any southern state.

Um...nothing against Catholics.. but.. Missouri is not Catholic..we're overwhelmingly Baptist. St. Louis is Catholic. There's a difference. Yes, St. Louis is a major voting bloc, but winning the I-70 corridor won't necessarily win the election: just look at 2000. Gore got screwed because of the Krazy Kristian Krusaders in the rural areas like in my Ozarks. Now, they can make Kerry out to be a liberal Massachusettan(?Massachusetter?), but with a VP from the south like Edwards or Clark.. that Dem ticket would do well.. and the trend could follow on the ticket at least in the Governor's race where the Dem will face Roy Blunt's son. But I digress..

[Sandpiper]

23. Sorry for the oversight

in the rural areas like in my Ozarks.

But having been born and raised in the St. Louis area, it makes you tend to overlook the rest of the state. But as far as a national election goes, the dem has a natural advantage because he automatically starts out with the support of the biggest voting block in the state.

[bornskeptic]

11. Missouri, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, New Hamphire at least.

Probably a couple more.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. I woulda said FL except we already won it ;)

[mmonk]

13. South Carolina

and maybe a western state or two.

[DoctorBombay]

16. In order of likelihood

New Hampshire
Nevada
Florida*
Ohio
West Virginia
Arizona
Missouri

*Florida not really "red" in 2000

[AndyTiedye]

18. NH maybe, WV maybe, OH possibly, but No Dem can Win in the South anymore

Fortunately, we don't have to.

It's time to forget the Soutern Strategy!

[Sandpiper]

21. I think we can pick off a few strategic southern states

But the majority of them belong to the goopers. I just don't see us winning the south as long as the Repubs pander to the racist/homophobic/evangelical vote.

[morningglory]

19. Can anyone compare these large turnout numbers to the y2k pres

election numbers? I am very curious how these primary numbers stand up to the 2000 election turnout.