Edwards in Oklahoma, the comeback kid? Clark = Tsongas

[jenk]

Remember, Tsongas won NH, but Clinton was the comeback kid. Edwards surged in the polls in Oklahoma, was in single digits a few weeks ago and 10 points behind Clark as of 3-4 days ago. So John is now the comeback kid, even though Clark gets the lame duck victory. Notice I said victory. He did win, and I'm not pulling any lieberman stuff, but the Edwards surge was great, he even passed Mr. Momentun himself, John Kerry.

In SC, Zogby had Edwards up 4 on Kerry today, he beat him by 15. He had Edwards at 17% in Missouri, instead Edwards turned out an impressive 25% (what would a gephardt endorsement done?). It's clear where all the momentum is, Edwards will win Tennessee and Virginia in a walk.

[Renew Deal]

1. Send a thank you card to Barry Switzer

Because Oklahomans didn't vote for Edwards based on issues.

[democratreformed]

9. The fact that the voters listened to a beloved football coach

is not nearly as troublesome as the fact that it was a last-minute decision to do so. How well do they know each other. Did this man really believe in the candidate?

[DjTj]

39. Good thing Edwards didn't win Oklahoma...

...or you guys would be going nuts over this Barry Switzer thing.

[democratreformed]

43. I'm serious here

I would listen to someone I looked up to - provided that he knew the person well and could honestly vouch for him. Did Barry Switzer know John Edwards that well? Come on. Help me restore some of my faith in people.

[ShaneGR]

44. Barry Switzer met John Edwards wife at a Carolina Panthers game

Honestly, two years ago. Edwards wife is a HUGE football fan. She saw Switzer, knew he was, went up and introduced herself. Later, Switzer met Edwards in Oklahoma (Back in October).

That's the connection.

[Jerseycoa]

29. Is that the robo calling guy?

I wonder where else robo calling went on. Hmmmm.

[adamrsilva]

2. I think so

Clark won by .4%. Edwards was not expected to do well. This and his SC win make him the no.2

[Mobius]

3. um Kerry = Tsongas

Lame duck victory? More like SC if you ask me. For Edwards anyway. When is the Arkansas primary, anyway?

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[D G]

5. I realize you're making an analogy to a past election

but just the phrase "Clark = Tsongas" is freakin' hilarious.

I agree that Edwards is the big story tonight, much as I wish it were Clark.

[BootinUp]

6. Clark had 1 win, 3 2nd Places tonight, delegates from 4 states

And with the worst National media coverage you could imagine.

[jenk]

7. Clark has been on the decline everywhere since Iowa

[roguevalley]

10. snicker! okay. Uh, next week who is going to be 'on the decline every-

where?'

[LZ1234]

11. Has Edwards done that much better?

Really?

[arewethereyet]

34. well, today hhe got 59 to Clark's 43 delagates

to Kerry's 112 to keep it in perspective.

[tameszu]

46. 47 delegates

Clark won 47 delegates (he won a few more delegates than his state-wide vote totals would indicate, because his support in a number of the SW states was broad in enough that he had an edge in winning congressional district apportioned delegates).

But you would have no idea about what happened if you watched cable news. Incredible.

[LZ1234]

59. Like I said...

and I am keeping it in perspective - Edwards has a long way to go too.

[LZ1234]

16. If Edwards uses the phrase "for example"

one more time...x(

I like Edwards really. Like a lot of us agree ABB.

[Democrats unite]

19. Well I think you forgot to tell a lot of voters that tonight!

You can buy into the media whore stuff if you want to I'm not! Edwards is a good man despite some of his supporters.

P.S. Edwards is far from sewing anything up yet, just like Kerry.

[TexasPatriot]

20. Clark was a strong 2nd in NM and AZ

and in case you didnt notice.... winning those 2 states might well be important in the general... Edwards wasnt on the map. As for SC - great... he won a state that we'll never win. Sorta like winning Alabama in my book. BFD.

Clark is not on the decline - he's pulled in more money for his campaign since Iowa - and his numbers in AZ and NM surged over the last week.

spin all you want - it dont make it true

[in_cog_ni_to]

24. He didn't run in Iowa.

and came in 3rd in NH AHEAD of Edwards. :eyes: How soon we forget.

[jenk]

27. how soon we forget Clark's NH collapse

Edwards went up steadily from 3%, Clark tumbled from 25%. Some victory right? blame the media time?

[TexasPatriot]

38. wait... i forget

did Edwards lose to Clark in NH?
oh yeah... he did didnt he...
hrm...

Wait - Clark and Edwards competed pretty hard in OK... did Clark win that?
damn...

I remember when Edwards went on and on about how he made up 20 pts on Clark - but how many did he make up on Kerry - the OTHER senator in the race to vote for IWR... what? did you say he lost ground? no way!!! Sounds like Joementum to me...

See the problem is that the people who want a washington insider? Well - they're for Kerry. The ones that dont? They're for Dean and Clark. Edwards? He's just sort of a pretty boy son of a millworker with tremendous rhetorical skill. He cant compete with Kerry for the insider votes - so now he wants to be an outsider, but it doesnt wash.

At the end of the day, he won his home state. Good for him.

[arewethereyet]

23. I've been in the Edwards news vacume for a solid 7 months

I think Clark's couple of weeks are little tocomplain about.

[BootinUp]

40. Right before the actual voting days seems to have an effect, No?

Also, Clark did beat Edwards in NH I don't care how the media slices it.

Generally I agree that all candidates get shoddy treatment from the news whores. So lets just agree on that for now.

[mikehiggins]

8. If Edwards does grab TN and VA does that hurt Clark or Kerry more?

I think it hurts Clark in regard to the delegate count, but if Edwards can cripple Kerry's march to the sea it could work out better for Clark.

The issue on everyone's mind seems to be "who can beat Bush"?

If Kerry is deflated then everyone is back on stage for another look, including Clark and Dean. If Kerry takes both states it doesn't help him all that much but it blows a hole in Edwards "surge."

Either way, the damage to Clark would be limited.

[BootinUp]

17. Clark will win TN

I have a feelin. Va is going to be tough, I'd say Kerry gets it. Clark and Edwards fighting for second.

[For PaisAn]

12. Notice you said "lame duck victory"

Arrogance is not becoming of any of us.
May I borrow your crystal ball when you're done?

[KittyWampus]

13. Edwards Benefits From Republicans Voting For Him and Diebold

that is the ONLY reason he came in where he did.

And he ran behind Clark in just about every state.

[jenk]

18. more clark conspiracy theories

keep it up, maybe you'll have another 15 point collapse like in NH. Or just barely hold on to a what was once a huge lead and act like a 1000 vote victory was a 15 point victory.

[Democrats unite]

22. Heres a conspiracy for you

"Clark has been on the decline everywhere since Iowa". Being disingenuous does nobody any good especially Edwards.

[Julien Sorel]

28. Someone is working hard to take the mantle

once worn proudly by dozens of Dean supporters.

[Jerseycoa]

31. You read my mind.

:yourock:

[HazMat]

26. That's a lame excuse / conspiracy BS

Edwards did pretty well tonight because he has the best message and best stump speech of any of the Democratic contenders, and I'm a Kerry guy. Edwards' speech was amazing tonight, where he talked about 'somewhere tonight there's a 10 year old girl starving.. and tonight we're here to fight for that girl..' .. almost made me shed a tear. There's no question that Edwards' message about 'two Americas' is the old fashioned, clear Democratic theme re. 'the people vs the powerful'.

Don't get me wrong, I like Clark, but IMO he's not ready for prime time... too many gaffes, no clear message, comes across much weaker than one would think a general would.. etc.

[dawn]

49. OMG you can't be serious. nt

[Kazak]

14. Thank Barry Switzer...

for sending his endorsement at that last moment.

[JPJones]

15. Let's see...

stopped a genocide, negotiated a peace treaty

vs.

channeled the voice of a fetus to make a million dollars and has nice hair

Clark is the big winner everyday.

[JPJones]

21. Oh yeah, and how about...

a little variety in the stump speech. We get it. Son of a mill worker manager. Two Americas. Somewhere in America a ten year old girl, blah blah blah.

Is he paying Stanley Greenberg royalties for the Two Americas idea?

[in_cog_ni_to]

25. What a LAME speech he has.

It's soooooo hokey. :eyes:

[jenk]

30. better than fumbling through note cards and making wild allegations

[in_cog_ni_to]

33. Wild allegations???

Like what? I've never heard Wes make any accusation that wasn't true.

Note cards??? hahahahahahahah! What note cards?

Me thinks someone is a SORE loser!

Go Wes! Off to Virginia that has a TON of military voters! Hehehe!

Off to Tennessee who LOVES Clark! hehehehe!

[arewethereyet]

36. don't know what the allegations are

but he was unable to tell a questioner in Fla at that but Dem-a-thon how he intended to fund his AIDS program and verbally fumbled around coming up with something like we all work together. The answer published in his position paper said the money comes from repealing the tax cuts.

Edwards can discuss his platform in detail and from any perspective. Because he wrote it.

[MidwestMomma]

37. Clark would want you to stay positive

Jerseycoa isn't here so don't make me give you a :spank:

We know Clark did great tonight. Don't let anyone rain our our parade!

Go Wes!

[democratreformed]

41. It's so hard

That jerk... um, I mean jenk is really getting on my nerves. One good thing, though - I'm going to TN this weekend and he has energized me to work three times as hard!!!!

[MidwestMomma]

45. That's better!

It's silly for the Edwards and Clark people to spat. Remember, Clark is a uniter and we have to follow his example. Thanks for all your hard work for Clark. You Rock!!!!

[Trajan]

32. This thread ....

Seems more proper in a High School locker room ...

Before the big game ....

Junior High School ...

[krkaufman]

35. Or in my "hidden thread" list.... buh-bye n/t

[knight_of_the_star]

42. Yeah sure

I may have just been a small child back then, but it seems kinda obvious that Tsongas actually LOST to Clinton at some point. Edwards, on the other hand, has YET to beat Clark in a state where Clark threw in some serious weight.

Think about that before you say WE should back off.

[SangamonTaylor]

47. umm, i thought that Clark was taking SC pretty serious?

am I wrong? Since when did he concede that he wouldn't be throwing serious weight into SC? Clark spent nearly 2.5 million in SC. Is that NOT a disappointment? Early on, he was neck and neck with Edwards for the lead.

One thing is for sure, Tennessee and Virginia will decide who should stay in this race, Edwards, Clark, or neither....(just like Washington and Michigan will decide Deans' fate)

I love how Clark supporters are so eager to attack Edwards on his credentials.

[JohnKleeb]

48. I expected Clark to do better too in SC

Edwards and Clark are polling equal in my state of Virginia. Edwards nearly got two wins tonight, and got delegates in two other states if I recall other than OK and SC, good job out there, and I mean that for all.

[TexasPatriot]

52. ok... let's look at the Clark SC strategy honestly

everyone thought Dean was coming out of Iowa...
everyone thought he was coming out of NH...
the firewall was 'be the southern alternative in SC'...
by skipping Iowa, it forced Edwards to throw deep and play hard there - and man he came away with points...

That pretty much pooched SC - since Edwards was the native son. Clark wasnt going to be able to win SC against the steamroller of Dean's 2 big victories without a LOT of name recognition... so spending money on ad buys was smart.

It didnt work out that way - at least Clark didnt keep playing in SC and put his resources into places he could favorably compete.

[flaminbats]

50. We need to put this in perspective...

first of all, in 1992..Georgia was the first major primary held in the south. Oklahoma did not have its primary until super Tuesday, which was then held in March! Secondly, Clinton was the only candidate in 1992 to gain the needed momentum during the primaries...but why? Because nearly all of the big money contributers considered Bush to be unbeatable then, and they felt of five perceived losers..the one who would might hurt local and Congressional Democrats the least in the election was..Bill Clinton. As history has proven, even after Tsongas won New Hampshire, and Harkin won Iowa..their campaign money quickly ran out. This allowed Clinton to win a majority of the primary votes in Georgia...which also gave him the momentum needed to defeat remaining contenders.

If Edwards had more money and super-delegates than Kerry now does, your logic would be only an illusion. But now that Edwards is far behind Dean in delegates..and John Kerry in campaign money, I view this kind of argument as just another sales pitch rather than an analysis. Clinton won overwhelmingly in Oklahoma, thanks to the help of leaders like Jim McCurdy during the primary. But Tsongas still wasn't competitive in that primary during 19992!

I see this battle as being more similar to the one in the midwest..between Kerrey and Harkin, than I do as the fight between Tsongas and Clinton. I see Clark as being a Harkin of the Democratic southern primaries, and believe that Edwards' performance has demonstrated he only has the strength of a southern Bob Kerry. John Kerry is seen as the non-regional..Clintonlike candidate, while Sharpton & Kucinich have become the Jerry Brown contenders of the campaign. Howard Dean is becoming another Paul Tsongas of the campaign...they failed to meet the overblown campaign objectives, but certainly have been able to attract public attention to a popular policy agenda during this election.

[Leilani]

51. You know what they say in North Carolina?

If you can't go to college, go to State!!!

From a proud Duke family! Go Blue Devils!!!

[spooky3]

53. Not everyone can afford to go to an expensive private school.

Edwards worked his way through college and graduated with honors in 3 years.

I'm surprised that a Democrat would not admire that.

[maddezmom]

54. I admire John Edwards for that, and mentioned here when I heard his

fantastic dwife mention it at a House Party. What I don't admire is some of his supporters here trying to marginalize Clark's win and seconds. :)

[spooky3]

56. I certainly agree with you on that--please note you won't see me doing it.

[maddezmom]

58. I know

:pals:

[Zech Marquis]

55. here we go!!!!

Edwards is going to do VERY well in the south, I'm STILL picking up my jaw after his strong results last night :bounce: To be honest, I figured Clark would take OK running away--so how did Edwards do it? Now the fun really starts!!!

[Eurobabe]

57. doubt it

Clark has 5 offices here in Virginia and a very solid grassroots movement. where the heck is edwards' organization? no where.

[Julien Sorel]

60. Unfortunately, grassroots are almost meaningless in the age

of TV news. People put more trust in a talking head on TV than they do in their own friends and neighbors. I think that's the big lesson everyone can take away from this election cycle. Dean built up a huge grassroots movement, which in and of itself got him about 5% in the national polls, but the movement itself attracted media attention, which made him a player. When Dean's flaws were revealed, and the media coverage stopped being so positive and fawning, he essentially collapsed.

Grassroots organizing is great for fundraising and kicking off a campaign, but once the campaign gets to the point where Joe Sixpack is involved, it's all about TV coverage. I know locally, I couldn't drive a block here yesterday without seeing a 'Dean for America' sign posted (almost all of them illegally, I might add), and he bombed. You can call people and talk to them until you're blue in the face, but it means nothing compared to what they see, or don't see, on TV.