in Virginia, as of the most recent poll take there on the 29th, adn has a good lead in Tennessee right now as well. So far all of the polls have been rather accurate this far in advance, and whil it would be possible for Clark to pass him in Tennessee, Kerry's lead in Virginia over Edwards and Clark is rather large:
Virginia:
Kerry 32%
Clark 17%
Edwards 17%
Dean 14%
Sharpton 9%
other 6%
undecided 5%
Survey USA 1/27-29 MoE 3.3%
Kerry 31%
Clark 22%
Edwards 13%
Dean 7%
Lieberman 6%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 0%
undecided 18%
Mason Dixon 1/28-29 MoE 5%
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htmThe polls from both SUSA and Mason Dixon were pretty accurate in predicting both S.C. and Oklahoma, and so far this year, the polls have been rather accurate on the whole in predicting the results of all of the nine races so far, so there is really not much chance of them being off base now.
Edwards won on his own ground, that was expected. Same thing For Clark in Oklahoma.
Virginia is another case. Far less rural. Far more like a Northern State than a Southern one, particualryl in the Democratic rich Northern Area of the state, much more like Washington D.C. than.
I think Edwards and Clark may now do a little better in both those states than expected, but I dont think they will beat Kerry. Kerry is very well organized in Virginia, and Edwards may not be able to match the air time that Kerry has just started to spend on in Washington D.C. to reach Northern Virginia. Then in Tennessee, Harold Ford has been stomping for Kerry for the better part of the last eight months, which accounts for Kerry's polling in that state. I would not have expected Kerry to be doing as well as he is in Tennessee as of the latest poll there(about 4 days ago) I looked at the results a dozen times and didnt get it and then I remembered Ford. With a weel left, it is not likely that either Clark or Edwards will get enough bounce to win, as what happened to night was not an unexpected surprise. But they may do better than the current polls indicate.