Democrats will lose 5 Senate seats if John Kerry is the nominee....

[TakebackAmerica]

Five of the closest races are deep in the heart of the south. All five of these are open seats with the Democratic incumbent retiring. Republicans will likely win at least one out these five elections. The other five Senate seats are in solid Bush states, Oklahoma and Alaska. The final seat is in Illinois where Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring. This seat is in a solidly Democratic state. This is an almost certain pick-up for Democrats.



Let's take a look a vulnerable Democratic seats:
-----------------------------------------------------
North Carolina (D): On September 7, 2003, Democratic Senator and Presidential candidate John Edwards announced he would not run for reelection. After Edwards decision, North Carolina Democrats turned to there failed 2002 Senate nominee to Erskine Bowles to run. He will have to face Republican Congressman Richard Burr. My prediction: GOP leaning
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss up
John Kerry as nominee: Strongly leans GOP

South Carolina (D): This summer, Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings announced he would not run for reelection. He has been represented South Carolina in the Senate since 1966. Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. She was able to survive the GOP sweep in 2002 and be reelected State Superintendent of Education with 59% She will face Republican congressman Jim DeMint
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss up.
John Kerry as nominee: Likely Gop

Georgia (D): Democrats in Georgia are in disarray after the upset loss of the Governorship and Max Cleland’s Senate seat. When Zell Miller announced that he would not run for reelection Republicans rejoiced. Republicans believe this is the last step before the y gain complete domination of Georgia. Demoralized Democrats were turned down by Andrew Young and this moment have not gotten there first tier, second tier or even third tier candidates to run.
Wes Clark or John Edwards: Likely GOP Pick-Up
John Kerry as Nominee: Solid GOP

Florida (D): Bob Graham is retiring after a failed run for president. Peter Deutch is battling it out with Betty Castor for the Democratic nomination. Former GOP Rep. Bill McCollum is and Mel Martinez are the top GOP candidates. With a Presidential campaign looming and a weak field of Democrats and Republicans this will be a nightmarishly tight election.

Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss Up
John Kerry as nominee: Leans GOP

Louisiana (D): John Breaux is retiring from the Senate, so he can pursue a lucrative lobbying career. On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris John is the only canidate. On the Republican side, Rep. David Vitter has locked up the nomination.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Leans Democratic
John Kerry as nominee: Leans Strongly GOP

South Dakota (D): Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is the only non-appointed senator any tough race. Former Rep. John Thune (R), the GOP’s strongest possible candidate, is running against Daschle. In 2002, Thune came 524 votes away from defeating Sen. Tim Johnson. Daschle is vulnerable, because he can easily be painted as another “Washington Liberal.” Thune will charge that Sen. Daschle has failed to convince his fellow Democrats to support an ethanol provision in the energy bill. Thune is all aided by the added bonus of being able to run on the same ticket as Bush.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Leans Democratic
John Kerry as nominee: Leans GOP
--------------------------------------------------

These are GOP seats that are vulnerable


Oklahoma (R): After spending 24 years in the Senate, Republican Senator Don Nickles announced he would retire. This is bad news republicans who will now have to defend a previously safe GOP seat. Democratic Congressman Brad Carson, a Rhodes Scholar and the House’s only Cherokee Indian, is running to replace Nickles. Mayor Kirk Humphreys is the GOP candidate. Oklahoma is already looking forward to its first close Senate election in years.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss Up
John Kerry as Nominee: GOP is favored



Alaska (R): In 2002 Frank Murkowski retired from the Senate and ran for governor. He won the gubernatorial election and then promptly appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to his Senate seat. Alaskans were out raged and view this as a form of nepotism. With out any nudging by eager Democrats, Former Governor Tony Knowles jumped into the race this summer. Murkowski may have to face not only Knowles but also vicious primary with angry Republicans. This is another race worth watching.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Toss up
John Kerry as nominee: GOP Favored

Illinois (R): Embattled GOP Senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring after only one term. The vulnerable Republican Senator probably feared he would lose election. In 2002 Democrats captured the Governor’s mansion for the first time since 1976. Illinois is not only a liberal state it is also trending left. Republicans will need either an extremely bloody Democratic primary or Bush to winning in a landslide, if they hope to hold on to this seat.
Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee: Likely Democratic Pickup
John Kerry as nominee: Toss Up

[TakebackAmerica]

1. Any thoughts?

BTW, I think a Kerry/Edwards ticket is a Dukakis/Bentson ticket all over again.

[Ivote]

2. Not only that but then

add 2 more Senate seats to defend


http://www.forclark.com/eblocks /

[DancingBear]

3. Spot on

Yesiree, a ticket comprised of a liberal Senator from MA (replete with Ted Kennedy soundbites and film clips ) and a TRIAL LAWYER will surely work magic in the south.

Look, I like Kerry, but this nonsense that he can even be remotely competitive in the south is just that - nonsense. He can win the GE, but only if he uses the Gore model - plus 1.

Kerry couldn't win a state south of the M/D line if Richard Petty was his running mate. And won't it be fun having a fillibuster proof Senate?

[blm]

4. Nope. Internal polls down here in SC show Kerry STRONGER at top of ticket.

That's why so many state DNC chairs did not want Dean. He brought down the whole lower ticket for Dems.

Kerry, Edwards or Clark at the top of the ticket helped them.

[flpoljunkie]

20. Thanks, blm for rebutting this desperate and inaccurate assumption...

with facts, not hyperbole.

[AntiCoup2K4]

28. "Facts" meaning Camp Kerry spin, naturally

2 senators from ANYWHERE won't win.

A "Dukakis liberal" and a "lawyer" won't win.

2 guys who voted for the majority of the BCE agenda won't win.

Now there's some facts for ya :)

[TakebackAmerica]

29. Right on!

A "Dukakis liberal" and a "lawyer" won't win.- LOL! that's a great line.

[blm]

45. Suit yourself. But your track record isn't particularly strong, imo.

No offense, but, I'll stick to what I know to be fact.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

42. Those are facts?

Oy!

[BootinUp]

23. have ya ever doubted polls though

If you are saying that Kerry is better than Dean in the south I say maybe.

But more importantly, what makes anyone think this kind of poll means anything? The GE has not begun, most Americans still aren't paying attention. There is a long way for Kerry to go asssuming, for a minute, he is the nominee.

Just on common sense this claim that he will do well in the South in the GE falls flat on its face.

[blm]

44. Because the vets who supported Bush in 2000 here are organizing for Kerry

and AGAINST Bush who they say lied to them in 2000 to get their support.

Didn't you notice that Kerry got 30% down here without even trying? He only had a few ads running for 4 days. All the others had ads running in heavy rotation for 2 months.

Doubt it all you want. No skin off my nose.

[TakebackAmerica]

24. BLM,

I agree with you on Dean.
Look at the states these races are in:
--------------
North Carolina- Bush State
South Carolina Bush State
Georgia Bush State
Florida Bush State
Louisiana Bush State
Oklahoma Bush State
South Dakota Bush State
Alaska Bush State
Illinois. Democratic state
--------------

Only 1 of the 10 seats are in Democratic states! :wow:
Of the 10 states, 6 are in the south.
The two southern candidate, Wes Clark and John Edwards are the ONLY candidate positioned to win in the south.

Yankees don't fly in Louisiana, or Oklahoma

[lastliberalintexas]

34. Wow

Even an anti-Kerry post by a Clark supporter gets an anti-DEAN response from you. Now, where exactly was his name mentioned in the original post?

[BringEmOn]

5. Kerry's seat also open

and would be *appointed by repuke Mass. Governor?

*edit

[TakebackAmerica]

12. exactly!

That makes it 6 seats.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

35. Kerry's term is up in 2006-Romney's nominee will be toast by then

[BringEmOn]

56. We all may be toast by then

[Virgil]

6. I really do not know

All I am going to say is that Kerry represents the establishment in Washington. He will be drawn as a wealthy, white yankee, that sailed with John Kennedy, then he will be quartered. It is the snooze factor that hurts Kerry, because what is he going to change? He voted for the tax cuts that mean the richest man in the Senate and his Heinz heiress wife were thinking of their tax bill and being able to pass that fortune on without paying taxes.

A snooze factor sure will hurt. What I do not even think of as issues are big to some. Bush got his partial birth abortion and to some that is great news. The Christians just absolutely hate the gays because the Bible tells them so. Bush is calling for a Constitution Amendment to stop the gay marriage stuff and promoting such a perverse lifestyle as even an option.

I just know the Republican Convention is around September 11th in New York City. That will be one sickening acceptance speech, but Bush will turn and say, I kept you safe. We did not have another terror attack and out of the 55 towel heads on the playing cards, we got almost all of them. Osama is likely to be caught. It will be sickening. He will probably start rehearsing after July 4th so they can check the puppet's delivery of the speech the ventriloquist wrote for them. Then for 50 days he will deliver a true shock and awe of $200 million with his 5 media companies reciting the party line that Rove wrote.

There is an energy in the Republican Party and I still think the next President will be a Democrat. I live in North Carolina and I would vote for Bowles if I vote at all. There is nothing outstanding about him except he is rich and he thinks himslf wonderful. Dole won decidedly two years ago and we could have saved her salary by just letting the Republican Party cast her vote. She is a complete Republican Borg hack and I hated to see her even run, but she won by significant margin.

Democrats might be concerned about getting Democrats in, but in all seriousness that average guy is asking what is the difference. The little man is going to get screwed. It has always been that way and it will always be that way. Big money runs the country. My mission is to drink beer and watch 200 channels. God bless America.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

7. What does John Kerry have to do with 5 seats that will be open

anyway?

These seats are up for grabs no matter who runs. I fail to see how Kerry running LOSES us all these seats...perhaps if you demonstrate the rest of your logic in the matter I can connect it.

[dansolo]

9. Kerry won't help us keep the seats

We are already losing them by having the incumbant Democratic Senators retiring. But will Kerry have enough coattails to help the Democratic candidates who are running for the open seats? I'd say no.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

10. And Dean will help us keep the seats by using the word Republican

as a pejorative?

This is where I don't get the logic. Dean fans say he can get more crossover votes because he worked with Repubs in his state...then he tosses the term out as a dirty word, slams the Democratic party and will help us keep seats?

[DancingBear]

13. Take Dean out of the equation

The focus here is on Kerry's abilty to help hold those five seats that are in play. He will have no coattails - period. Nada. Zero. The repugs running will be able to run against a (perceived) liberal MA senator, and they'll win easily. Kerry will not help any Dem challengers because he will be who is is perceived to be. Not his fault, but that is what will happen. Dean has nothing to do with it - although I find his argument for electability in the south rather spurious as well.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

14. He did well in SC

and frankly I think it depends on who the running mate is and their ability to stump.

[Doctor_J]

8. One minor correction

We will pick up the Illinois seat regardless of who's running or who's at the top of the ticket. Our weakest candidate could beat any of the Repubs soundly. Any of our strongest ones (Obama, Hull, Hynes, Chico) will win in a landslide.

The rest of your analysis is deadly accurate, unfortunately.

[sandnsea]

11. I refuse to be held hostage to the south

If they want Democrats, at some point they're going to have to figure out how to get the Democratic message out. I know people in the south, my family is in the south, they're not a bunch of half-witted retards. Their values are pretty much the same as my values, we just need a couple of candidates who have a strong Main Street message with the credibility to get folks to listen in the first place. From the looks of things, it's Kerry and Edwards.

[DancingBear]

16. But what of the question asked?

How does Kerry help to get these 5 seats into Dem hands? Who does he bring to help? While the idea of being held hostage no more is admirable, how in the hell does having Ted Kennedy stump for you get these seats into Dem hands??

A southern VP such as Edwards will not be of much help - coattails come off the guy at the top of the ticket.

[sandnsea]

27. They have to do it

Democrats in the south are going to have to get southerners to decide to join the United States. I think Edwards can do it and I don't see ANYBODY else who can do it. He can do it at the bottom of the ticket because it's the message that needs to get through and nobody carries that message better than Edwards.

[HereSince1628]

18. Agreed...what So. states are dependably dem in Pres. elections?

Over the past eleven elections which southern states went blue less than half the time? These numbers come from an electoral college website.

VA---1
Alabama--1
Mississipi---1
Oklahoma---1 (I'm not sure if OK considers itself southern)
S Carolina---2
Florida---3
N Carolina---3
Texas---3
Kentucky---4 (I'm not sure if KY considers itself southern)
Louisiana--4
Tennessee--4
Arkansas---5
Georgia---5

Sure their electoral votes are important.

But there are important senatorial races in the north and west as well.

[TakebackAmerica]

31. well..

We can pick up Louisiana, Arkansas and maybe Florida.
That equals an extra 42 electoral votes!!!!!!!!!!

[TexasSissy]

15. Why do you think the prez nominee would have any effect on the

congressional elections?

[TakebackAmerica]

22. Coattails....

If voters don't like the Democratic candidate the will vote straight down the ticket for Bush.

If Bush runs well in states with close Senate and House races, The GOP candidate will have an edge.

[LoneStarLiberal]

17. I Have to Disagree on OK

I like Carson a whole lot, but in a Senate election in Oklahoma?

I simply don't see how OK is in play unless we put Barry Switzer or Jamail Holloway on the ticket as VP.

And since that isn't happening, a Democratic pick up of an OK Senate seat isn't happening.

[Forkboy]

19. Heard this exact same argument about Dean

[RetroLounge]

21. Is this related to when Kerry gets his ass whooped in the GE?

EOM

[GreenPartyVoter]

25. We'll lose seats if ANY dem is elected

So should we throw the election over to Bush just to keep those seats???

[TakebackAmerica]

30. I disagree

If Clark is the nominee, We will only lose one southern seat and I think we will pick up a Senate seat in, Alaska, Oklahoma, Illinois and maybe Pennsylvania

[TexasPatriot]

26. 6 seats

if he's the nominee, he loses his and will be replaced by a republican.

[library_max]

32. I'm just curious.

When you say "Wes Clark or John Edwards as nominee," X and "John Kerry as nominee," Y, do you have any facts to back that up? Any poll numbers, anything? Or is that just a personal opinion?

[TakebackAmerica]

36. Well...

Who do you think will poll better in North Carolina, Kerry or Edwrds or Clark.

There's your answer.


Yankees don't fly in the south.

[TheDonkey]

33. no, its a laughable explanation

You aren't giving any solid reasons WHY seats would cange from Dem pick up to STRONG GOP. It's this normal southern obsession and just bashing Kerry.

[DancingBear]

37. The explanation is here

It's called coattails. If a candidate is perceived as "likeable", or "electable", or "regional", or whatever you care to call it, people will transfer that emotion to lower tier candidates running under the same party. Happens all the time. if the candidate is not considered to be any of the above, that perception also travels down-ticket.

Kerry will not be seen in the south in a positive light, whereas Clark or Edwards would be - leading the ticket. This said, lower tier candidates can 'grasp on" to the popularity of the head of the ticket and garner votes that they ordinarily may not have gotten - hence the term "coattails."

Hopefully this clears things up. Kerry will not have the abilty to coattail - Clark or Edwards would. No bashing involved.

[poskonig]

38. Illinois is not a toss-up.

A hillbilly candidate will not bring in more Democrats in Illinois. We tried the Poshard thing in 1998 and got butchered. Getting suburban women to turn out is a biggie in this state, and this is a group Kerry polls well with.

[DancingBear]

39. Pull your pants up

I think your attitude is showing.

Hillbilly candidate, indeed.

Real nice.

What - no "Deliverance" reference??

[poskonig]

40. Some need to show intelligence.

Looking exclusively at Illinois, claiming that Kerry would make Illinois a tossup while Clark and Edwards would have an easier time is ridiculous. Whenever the democrats run some downstate clown with a "faith and family" message we get our asses kicked. Bad.

Suburban women are the key factor. When we run real liberals like Durbin or Blagojevich we win by landslides. The same applies for the Republicans -- they can do very well when they moderate themselves on women's issues.

I've lived here all my life. Trust me on this.

[DancingBear]

46. I don't distrust you at all on that

I am just offended by the use of the term "hillbilly candidate." There was no need to frame someone in those terms, and it tends to re-enforce a stereotype that we don't need. I like Chicago - but I like the Blue Ridge, too.

Get it? ;)

[Straight Shooter]

41. Great, because this will give Kerry a chance to demonstrate to everyone

his uncanny, remarkable ability to get things done in Congress! Repub majority? No problem! He'll just wear his uniform from Nam when he addresses Congress and they'll all prostrate themselves at his feet and give him anything he wants.

When Kerry sniped at Dean in the debate about his superior expertise in "how things work in Congress," I wonder to what, exactly, does he attribute bush being able to accomplish so much on his agenda. Hmmm.

[zoeyfong]

43. Not only that, but Kerry can't/won't stand up to the repubs.

[NewJerseyDem]

47. This is idiotic

Nobody knows how the election will go.

Basically, you are saying that Kerry isn't electable. But, it is hard to tell if this has such a massive impact on senate elections. There is ticket splitting which is fairly common.

In South Carolina, there are 5 republican candidate and the primary will be bloody.

In Georgia, we lost the seat already. It doesn't matter who is the nominee.

In Louisiana, it hasn't had a republican senator since Reconstruction and has been going well for democrats recently. Increasing black population is moving the state towards the left. Democratic State Treasurer John Kennedy is also running.

In South Dakota, any partisan distaste for democrats will take down Daschle. Those that will vote for him aren't going to care who the party's nominee is because they don't see him in a partisan way. Kerry won't affect outcome.

In Alaska, Knowles is leading by 4 points when there is a green in the race. This is after Kerry became the frontrunner and that hasn't changed anything yet. Alaska is heavily republican and is going to dislike any of the potential nominees.

Illinois is heavily democratic and Kerry will carry it almost certainly. There is no reason why Kerry would affect the outcome

You provide no argument for why Kerry will hurt them other than that the races are in the south and I guess Kerry being from the North will hurt democrats. But, Alaska isn't in the south so why would Clark or Edwards help there?

[TakebackAmerica]

54. Thanks for your thoughts.

You're right, Alaska isn't in the south.

I haven't seen the poll with Knowles up 4, the last poll I saw he was up 1 point.

[dae]

48. Corrections on Louisiana, if I may, Bobby Jindal(R) fresh from his runoff

loss with Gov. Blanco announced his intentions to run for Breaux's seat. State Treasurer John Kennedy(D)is talking about running for the seat as well, he would have nothing to lose and gain name recognition by doing so.
The smart money is already on Cong. Chris John regardless of the national party's nominee. He will have the backing of Blanco, Landrieu, Breaux, and the state party.
No GOP here.
:dem:

[NewJerseyDem]

49. Jindal is running for the House

He is going to run for Vitter's seat.

[dae]

52. You're right. My bad. Still, Senate race outcome the same with Chris

John favored.

[TakebackAmerica]

50. thanks for the update!

How would Kennedy fare against Vitter?

[dae]

53. Now THAT would be a barroom brawl. eom

[MurikanDemocrat]

51. Pure speculation

Your analysis is based on nothing but guess work and wishful thinking skewed in favor of your candidate.

I'll settle for getting someone in the White House first and then worry about Congress next.

[juajen]

55. Well, I can't speak for any state but Louisiana, but

Your calculations are, IMHO, wrong about our fair state. Chris John is very popular, and a democrat will be favored because he will need to work with Mary Landrieu, and believe me, Mary is going nowhere. While mentioned often for VP, I don't think when it comes down to it, that we will have a female candidate for VP; too chancy when they have the beautiful and now well known male candidates to choose from.

Wouldn't it be amazing to have an all female ticket, i.e., Clinton/Landrieu in 2008? I can dream, can't I?

[JCMach1]

57. This analysis is based on a close election or a Bush landslide

A CLOSE election might happen. I have been saying for months that if our Democratic candidate wins, it will be significant.

In a close election, I thinkt he pugs will pull it out by BBV, Supreme Court, or whatever it takes to keep power.

If we win, I think we mop the floor with Bush. We would take back the Senate and come VERY close in the HOUSE.

[shivaji]

58. Can't wait for all these Clark supporters to go away after next tuesday

man..they are in complete denial. Listen, right now it's the
primary season, kapish? If Clark can't beat Kerry 49 out of 50
states, he is a gonner, el finito!

And that guy from Illinois is exactly right. I lived in Chicago
and burbs for 35 years. This is a more urbane area than people
realize. Hillbilly's like Clark and Edwards won't do didly in
Illinois for coattails. Kerry will most certainly attract many
more suburban voters.