Any Recent CA Polls?

[Mick Knox]

Are there any polls on the candidates for CA within the past 24-48 hours? If you could provide link; would be appreciated. Thanks

[ringmastery]

1. Kerry has a 30 pt lead over Dean in CA

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[Carl Spackler]

2. That's a bookmark site!

Thanks

[Mick Knox]

3. TYVM

[Nashyra]

4. I don't how accurate it is

they have Edwards coming in 3rd instead of Clark in NH. Very disturbing fact.

[For PaisAn]

5. It's not accurate

It says the site was last updated on 2/3/04 but they somehow neglected to update NH. The date for NH is 1/26/04, 1 day before that primary. It's a BS site. Ignore

[mohc]

6. Then I guess you will discount the polls showing..

Clark ahead in TN and tied in VA, as they came from this site too. SUSA tends to be fairly close to the final results, usually within MoE, but has a tendency to overplay demographics which can skew results to one candidate or another. And how could they have updated the NH poll, one usually stops polling once the election has already been held.

[King of New Orleans]

7. Which SUSA site you lookin at?

SUSA Tennessee poll has Kerry 31, Clark 26, Edwards 20, Dean 15

Their Va poll has Kerry 32, Clark and Edwards 17, and Dean 14

Also, their NH poll had Edwards at 14 and Clark at 12, hardly innaccurate. Certainly within any margin of error.

[mohc]

8. Clark ahead with respect to Edwards

Yes Kerry is ahead but a lot of Clark supporters today have been pointing towards these SUSA polls to show that Clark is in better position than Edwards in VA and TN. Which may be the case as of right now, but if you want to take those polls, you have to take the CA poll too.

[juajen]

9. Hey, no problem

I'll take it!

[King of New Orleans]

11. My apologizes

Clearly I missed the context of what you were debating. It is interesting that Clark is polling well in Tenn. Especially given his soft showing in SC. Any particular reason why?

[mohc]

12. He has had the state to himself

Clark has been running ads here (I live in Murfreesboro, TN which is the largest suburb of Nashville) since early January. Dean had a lot of support here as well, but it was fairly soft and has switched to Kerry. Remember Arkansas is next door to TN as well, so this will be the battle where each candidate is from a neighboring state (NC and AR). Edwards has decided to concentrate on TN and VA and pretty much cede MI to Kerry.

One more thing: Whatever is the media going to do with no tracking polls for TN and VA??!?! Zogby is skipping them, ARG does not appear to have a release schedule for them. I'm a subscriber to Gallup and I have seen nothing about these states. We'll probably see a few daily polls from various outlets, but it will not give us that moving picture.

[King of New Orleans]

13. Clark does have a bit of a neighbor advantage

Arkansas borders the more democratic end of the state while Edwards borders the more Republican end of the state.

Should be quite the battle.

Has Harold Ford Jr. endorsed anybody?

[isbister]

15. Has Harold Ford Jr. endorsed anybody?

He's Kerry's national campaign co-chair

[genius]

10. California has a 15% statewide as well as a 15% CD minimum

It is possible that in a close race,the winning candidate could get fewer delegates than the second place candidate depending on the distribution. But Kerry has such a commanding lead that he will probably get the lion's share of the delegates. I expect Kucinich to get a lot of candidates in Northern California. Last October, it looked as if Kucinich would do well in Southern California too but currently it looks as if it might be a better strategy for Kucinich to concentrate on getting as many as delegates in the northern part of the state as possible and counting on the southern half to help in his overall statewide count. California is like two separate states with the northern half being much more Green and liberal than the Southern half. We had anti-war rallies of 50,000 in L.A. They got 250,000 to 500,000 in San Francisco. There were more Green than Democratic banners in the San Francisco rallies.

At the rate Dean is falling, I don't expect him to be a factor. He used to be way ahead of Kerry in the California polls.

Edwards is actually coming up and, with an additional boost, he could get a lot of delegates here. He needs to come to California. I suspect that Clark and Edwards will do their best in Southern California. Edwards is great on labor. He needs to show up at a labor rally ASAP. It's a three hour flight and it will make the news and dramatically boost his poll numbers. They are giving the strike a lot of coverage now. In October, Kucinich led a labor rally with movie stars and, because the press is hiding his existence, it got almost no coverage. The press isn't as afraid of Edwards as it is of Kucinich.

Here's an issue for Clark and Kerry. The marines and their families in Camp Pendleton are living in moldy, rat-infested base housing thanks to Darrell Issa (the guy who financed the recall). It would impress a lot of people if one of these two took a tour of the housing and promised good housing for these people.

[nbsmom]

14. Just curious.

I'm sure -- as a genius -- you do understand that Northern California has a fair share of the 440 delegates.

And even as you tout the numbers of the people who marched in San Francisco and L.A., don't you think that perhaps just a few of those people aren't necessarily voting Green? And that they might, perhaps, still be having a problem with giving Kerry a pass on his IWR vote?

Hmmmm...oddly enough, So. Cal (with the notable exception of LA County) bought the Governator's line of BS...but all of the Bay Area voters (including those wacky Green types in SF) stuck with the guy they'd elected 10 months earlier.

No doubt you also have taken into consideration how difficult it is to get anything resembling an accurate CA poll with a microscopic sample size, don't you? (Particularly in this Caller ID era.)

So this post is really kind of a twofer for you, isn't it: dismissive of Dean's chances and (BONUS!) of any impact of No. California voters.

:eyes: