Is Edwards the ideal ticket after all?

[spindoctor]

I was playing with the numbers of the electoral college, when I noticed that I overlooked the obvious.

If Edwards can deliver us the Carolinas (or even just NC), then the swing states can all turn red for all we care, with 283 EV's the White House would be ours again.

I'm sure I'm not the first to reach this conclusion, but it was an eye-opener to me. Verrrry interesting.

[jenk]

1. Edwards would have an easier time winning Missouri and Arkansas

than S. Carolina or N. Carolina, fact is a lot of people like Edwards in the south, they like him a lot. But a lot of them are southern repugs, and when the curtain is drawn behind them on election day they'll vote Bush because he has the R next to his name.

[dolstein]

3. Agreed, but the important thing is, Edwards COULD carry these states

I agree that Edwards would probably have an easier time carrying Missouri and Arkansas. But we can't overlook the fact that with Edwards, Bush can no longer take much of the South for granted. Sure, Mississippi and Alabama will remain solidly Republican, and probably Georgia too. But Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana are all potentially competitive, as long as Edwards is willing to devote the time and the resources. Bush would likely pour a lot of money into some of these states early on, just to scare Edwards off. But even if that tactic works, there's a significant cost to Bush in doing so.

[David Zephyr]

2. The Carolinas Will Never Vote Against Bush.

The South Carolina State Chair of the Democratic Party said that his state would not vote against Bush already.

[mlawson]

4. If Edwards can't win NC, then no Democrat can.

And I live here in NC. I do not know anyone who doesn't like (and support) John. The only words I have EVER heard against him is right here on DU... By the time November comes, he will have 100% name recognition, and I firmly believe, good will from most independents, and hopefully virtually all Dems here. He is just like people here, your next door neighbor, (or someone you WISH lived next door).

It was no fluke that he beat Lauch Faircloth in 1998. Voters saw something in him they liked, and that means a lot more than ideologues realize.

[jenk]

5. Zell Miller could, though we really can't call him a Dem anymore

[mmonk]

12. Dems here

wouldn't elect Zell (NC) if he supported bush publically.

[elsiesummers]

6. Maybe VA?

I see a better shot at pulling VA than NC or SC.

NC and VA are both demographically gradually moving to the Democrats.
But - this will take time.

VA has a long history of voting for Democratic Governors (Robb, Balliles, Davis and Warner) and Republican Presidents.

[PurityOfEssence]

7. He's EASILY the best candidate

He will carry the South and rural areas better than either Kerry or Clark, and although either of them may get more crossover military votes, Edwards will get virtually all the groups they will and more.

He will energize traditional non-voters and will be much better in the debates against Junior. Clark will potentially lose some of the extreme left, and Kerry will lose the bumkin vote. Kerry also has votes in his record that can be twisted against him.

Think on the gut level: Edwards comes across as very appealing; unfortunately, that's all many people ever think of.

Edwards was already beating Bush (admittedly by only one point) before yesterday's win in a CNN/Gallup poll, so he's getting traction.

His essential message is a reaffirmation of the American System, and he frames it in a very positive way.

At this point, I can't see any argument that there are any other contenders than these three.

[elsiesummers]

13. Also Kerry will motivate the right like Hillary would

Kerry - because he's from "taxachusetts" and his gun control record and anti-death penalty history will highly motivate the right wing nuts. He won't get any Southern states - and it is tough in my mind to to write off Louisana and Arkansas so easily. No the stereotyping is not fair - but it will be this way - it always has been.

[colonel odis]

8. why don't we wait and see

how many more jobs are lost, how many more countries invaded, how many more awol accusations surface, how many more impeachable offenses are uncovered.

it's still early. but i don't think rove will know how to attack edwards in a way that'll stick.

it's still the economy, stupid.

and if edwards were to win the nomination, can you imagine hearing his message delivered with passion and feeling on the news, followed by bush's dead ass platitudes deliverd to big contributors.

even better, could you imagine what james carville would do to bush with edwards as his candidate?

[jpgpenn]

9. to be led by Edwards is a scarey thing!

[JohnLocke]

10. Why?

[Cuban_Liberal]

11. Edwartds can deliver some Southern states.

Not only can he win in TN, AR, LA, etc., but he can also provide coattails for the rest of the ticket in the Southern states. We HAVE TO start seeing the bigger picture here, y'all. :)

[jmaier]

15. You pretty much need a wide electoral majority

to have 'coattails' during a Presidential election. While our ticket might win, it won't be by that sort of a margin.

Edwards is smart, glib and appealing but he isn't going to bring a wide swath of conservative voters over to the Blue column and without that -- no substantive help for Senatorial candidates.

[Vampiro]

14. That'd be nice if Edwards got the nomination...

I like him, always liked him. He'd make one helluva president. :)