Dean's Secret Weapon vs. Bush: The New MILLENNIAL GENERATION!

[Dems Will Win]

As a paid policitcal consultant, I am aware of something others may have missed -- Dean has a secret weapon that Bush and Rove cannot acquire. There is a New Generation that just reached voting age: the MILLENNIALS!

In the book "Generations", Strauss and Howe show that there are cycles to generations and this profoundly affects politics. Where Generation X is mostly inactive politically (although some are not) and tends to vote conservative, the upcoming generation is the exact opposite. Known to demographers as the Millennials for their coming of age at the begnning of the Millennium, this new generation was born between 1982 and 2001 and will shove this country so far to the left you will not recognize it.

Merry Christmas!

Born of progressive Boomer parents, the Millennials "echo" their radical/liberal views or find progressivism on their own. In 1996, Howe appeared on TV and actually predicted that the Millennials would soon be out on the street battling the corporations and war by the year 2000. Right on schedule, we had the Battle of Seattle in 1999!

Since then, the many demonstrations at WTO and the anti-Iraq War movement, all mostly young Millennials, HAVE PROVED THIS PREDICTION TRUE. Strauss and Howe go on to predict that the Progressive Boomer Generation and the Progressive Millennial generations eventually form a "Generation Sandwich" as the older "Silents" (born 1922 ro 1941) die off and the Millennials come of age. There are 82 million Boomers and 75 million Millennials. As they reach voting age, the Millennials will vote 90% Democrat or Green if they vote and they will vote in large numbers, probably near 50%.

2004 will be the FIRST Presidential Election they are eligible and there are already 15 million of them of voting age for 2004.

This is Dean's secret weapon that is now staring Rove in the face, as he has little or still no awareness of it up until now. In December, Rove finally realized he's about to get shlonged and put those desperate ads up to try and get Anybody But Dean. He is now obviously terrified of him or he wouldn't have made those ads. Why?

THE MILLENNIALS!

In addition to the 15 million eligible to vote, add another 7 to 10 million Millennials below the age of 18, many of whom will become Dean workers (500,000 by election day? 600,000??). Since about 45% of the 15 million will vote for Dean, that's an extra 6 to 7 million votes for Dean that Gore did not have! Yes, I know, you'll say, young people will never vote in such numbers.

WRONG!!!! These are not any young people -- they are THE MILLENNIALS, even more fervent and radical than the Boomer Generation!

Many Gen Xers are radical progressives, if they were raised by Boomers or became radical by themselves, yet they are few compared to the 15 million Millennials who become eligible and then active once they realize the Bush will bring back the DRAFT in 2005.

(Here is the Readiness Plan from the SSS, which reduces the activation time from 8 months to 75 DAYS!!
http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_FY2004.html)

When you add the Millennials to the disaffected Republicans, soldiers, veterans, Hispanics, Reagan Democrat Union people and all the people thrown out of work or had their overtime cut, plus all the older people who never voted before, Howard Dean has quite a secret weapon in his back pocket -- and it's called 8 to 10 million extra voters. It will be enough to take Ohio and West Virginia plus all the states Gore won the last time.

That means Dean beats Bush 285 to 253 in the electoral college!

In your face, Karl! At least 8 million extra voters!! It's demographics Republican Jingoism will never be able to penetrate.

And it only gets worse, Karl. Every four years another 15 million Millennials become eligible to vote! In short, the GOP is doomed, my DU friends, and their end is very near.

Here is a review of the Generations book, which starts by confirming that the predictions written in 1992 about the "Heroic Millennials" have now come true!

A friend of mine lent me this book a few weeks ago. Skeptical about any book purporting to predict the future, I immediately read their predictions section - after all, the book was published ten years ago. To my surprise, I found that their predictions for 1992-2002 were largely correct! So I started again, at the beginning. The book is a work of genius.

The central tenet of this book is that generations don't age the same way, and when looking at generations through history, the correct way to look at them is by cohort - that is, by groups with similar birth years - rather than by age. In other words, if you're born in 1950 and grow up in the '60s and '70s, you'll be different at age 50 than you will if you're born in 1970 and grow up in the '80s and '90s. Strauss and Howe then trace a number of generational cohorts through American History, and find evidence of a cycle of generational types - usually a four part cycle, but in one case a three part cycle. For example, they liken Gen X (whom they call "13ers"), born in 1961-1980, to the "Lost" generation born in the late 1800s.

As a trailing edge boomer, born in 1960, I was not surprised to find that the authors, both boomers, correctly identify the defining characteristics of my generation - characteristics that I happen to dislike, as I'm in the minority that don't fit the mold that well, but that I have to acknowledge as accurate for the majority. On the other hand, the description of the Silent generation, to which my parents belong, was an eye opener - it explained well why my fathers views of what different stages in a man's life are like seemed so alien to me. The description of Gen X was likewise enlightening, both in terms of explaining some of my previous business interactions with Gen Xers (they always seem so surprised when someone actually gives them a break - turns out it's because they hardly ever get breaks) and helped me understand and interact much better with one particular Gen X who is very important to me - my wife. The description of the Millenials seems to be accurate so far for undergraduates I work with.


To buy the Generations book go to Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0688119123/qid=1072383763/sr=2-3/ref=sr_2_3/002-0321525-5012815

CALLING ALL MILLENNIALS (and you Boomers and Progressive Gen Xers, too) -- IT'S TIME TO TAKE YOUR COUNTRY BACK!

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE, BECAUSE NOW YOU KNOW THE SECRET TOO!

[goobergunch]

1. I become eligible to vote in 2006

The avatar says it all. :evilgrin: :thumbsup:

[Dems Will Win]

3. Goobergunch the Heroic Millennial

You are of the same cycle as George Washington, Tom Jefferson and Tom Paine, you know!

You are a Millennial! Any others? And don't forget, if you were raised by Boomer parents you are more early Millennial than Gen X.

Lead the younger ones!!

[TahitiNut]

2. "Gen MM"??

Catchy, hmmm?

[UrbScotty]

4. Our nominee should give them a reason to vote.

I just hope our nominee (Dean or otherwise) just gives those young people a reason to vote.

One word comes to mind: DRAFT.

[Skwmom]

25. I think the hard part was left out

Like how to defend Dean against the massive attacks in the general election (many which will unfortunately be true).

[Scott Lee]

5. Brilliant, and thank you!

Let me ask you - doesn't this issue support the notion that Statism in the Democratic Party is a losing proposition...after all, what would the Millenials care about the entitled old school running the party right now?

[Dems Will Win]

6. Must excite this new base

all 7 million that might vote. It's all dem or they go Green, a lot of them. Gep can't do it or Joe or Kerry even. Clark does a little but Clark as VP gets us AR and WV and that's all we need if they steal OH (the fix is in)

Then it's a squeaker, we win by 4 Electoral College votes!

[fishguy]

7. Millenial sounds too cultish

Like all those freaks who thought the world was going to end at the turn of the century.

[Dems Will Win]

11. Say, that would be a good Republican talking point!

Why don't you call up Ed Gillespie?

HE'S GOING TO NEED THIS PUT-DOWN VERY SOON!

[Scott Lee]

13. Ed has been assigned the Dean Character Assassination

And having more than his hands full with that, is currently indisposed.

[kalian]

8. I personally don't see much in the so-called "millenials"...

they are very a-political IMHO and they are as bad, in terms of
material wants, as the baby boomers.
As for being concerned about the draft..IMHO, most millenials are
quite ignorant in the ways of the world. They have been brought up
on the myth that military technology permits to blast an opponent
from far away...that war can be waged by just pushing some buttons.

I remain weary of the millenials...sorry, don't mean to look
down upon them but that's the way that I feel.

A GenXer...

[Dems Will Win]

10. Every Generation thinks the ones before them and after them are inadequate

it's just not true in this case. Read the book and then get back to me. Don't just accept the GOP Metaphysics of Despair.

The Millennials will not activate until they are contacted during the campaign. They are still in the pre-activation phase but very, very soon. WHAMMO! 7 million new Dem voters out of the BLUE!

10, 9, 8, 7...

[kalian]

17. 7 million "dem" voters out of the blue....

I don't think so...and I wouldn't be counting my crops before the
harvest...
Millenials are very finicky creatures... I know, I have TWO sisters
that would be considered "millenials" and they are BOTH 1) religious
2) pro-Bush, 3) pro-war... That's in my family...
I have one 22 year old coworker that is also a right-winger...and
he too falls under the millenial title.

[Zinsipperlover]

9. I like what I am reading

:bounce:

[newyawker99]

24. Hi Zinsipperlover!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[kclown]

12. It's useful to do the arithmetic

though it's speculative and subject to change in the near
term.  I think my family is a good example.  I am male, born
1949, anti-war in 1960's for at least 3 reasons: 1. Saving my
ass, 2. historical insight from The Pentagon Papers (I still
think I am the only person who read the whole thing; if you
suffer from insomnia that will cure it), 3. let's admit it, it
was hip and fun.  I was pretty sure from the moment Bush
announced (6/99) that he intended to nail Hussein.


But now I'm 54 with a 17-y.o and a 16-y.o. son.  When the war
drums started in July 2002, all of us here could smell the
outcome.  We screamed, marched, begged, whined that this is
even worse than Vietnam because the untruthfulness was so
obvious.  Mr. Rove got the better of us, and today 2/3 of
Americans believe the war was worthwhile.

Including my two sons!  And their classmates!  The prospect,
obvious to me, that this is just chapter 1 simply doesn't take
with them.  My impassioned argument, that when they say they
need more soldiers they mean you two, doesn't impress them. 
So much for my millennial generation.

On the brighter side, the Repub strategists have in the past
admitted that they have "maxed out" the angry white
men; i.e., they have gotten all those votes that there are to
get.  This is their obvious weakness, and IMHO the reason why
we have 9 candidates.  Please all, never forget that some
number of people voted for W. in 2000 under the impression
they were voting for the father, who was not precluded from
the race.

So which Gore voters will vote for W?  IMHO, none.  Which
Nader voters will vote for W? Same answer.  Which Nader voters
will vote for Nader? Not 3 million.  Conclusion: Democrat wins
by 3.5 million, more or less.  Phil Donahue will not be a
factor in 2004.

So, if we have a real and honest election, W. is toast.  Many
caveats suggest themselves: I'll stop here.

[Dems Will Win]

14. Very good post, kclown

I'm not saying every Millennial will be progressive radicals, not in 2003, but more in 2004 and a lot more in 2005 when the DRAFT is re-instated. I'm saying 45% will vote for Dean (and no one else--outside of Kucinich who won't make it). The other 55% will not vote or vote for Bush in small numbers. Maybe 10% of the 15 million will vote GOP. So you see, I'm predicting that the 18-22 vote will equal the percentage of older voters (but not the Gen Xers -- who will remain lower). And the parties both intend to try and reach every voter this year--at least in the swing states, and Dean WILL contact every voter period.

This is what activates the Millennials and gets them going, the one-on-one contact from the campaigns. Plus the DRAFT will become the main issue for them as it becomes clear Bush will need it in 2005 and is actively readying the SSS machinery so the first DRAFT LOTTERY is June 15, 2005.

[windansea]

29. are you talking about Rangel's draft bill?? n/t

[Dems Will Win]

15. All the Millennials I know

and that's literally hundreds of them, all detest Bush and many are actually reading Stupid White Men by Michael Moore--and asked for Dude, Where's My Country? for Christmas! They have gone from Harry Potter to Michael Moore and they read like nobody's business.

Others I know are working for Dean or Kucinich and the Kucinich kids are about to undertake a Rolling Thunder bus tour of the U.S. for DK, all gorgeous girl dancers, artists, jugglers and speakers.

The fun has yet to begin, my friend!

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

16. "Young wolves, show us your teeth."

That's what John Steinbeck said to a group of young Soviet writers who had been too silent about the regime during the Brezhnev era.

Generation X has been disappointingly silent about injustice, war, poverty, and concern for others. Hopefully, Dean is awakening the young wolves.

[kalian]

18. GenXers have not been disappointing....

Reason 1) we are far FEWER than the baby boomers and 2) far fewer
than the millenials.
Another thing: for those that expect the "millenials" of becoming
the next "great generation" I would dare say to beware since the
indications clearly state that the millenials are much closer to
the baby boomers than they are to their grandparents.

The GenXers had one thing going for them: they were still very much
"in touch" with their grand parents. Many millenials cannot say the
same thing.

[Dems Will Win]

19. I would have to agree with Kalian

there are many progressive Gen Xers who are really more early Millennials. And the Gen Xers here at DU are certainly of the Progressive variety!! Yay!

So we don't need to get into a pissing match about this. We are all against Bush and to get rid of him we WILL unite and vote him out.

Many Gen Xers have already woken up in the last 3 years and now see through Bush or have been affected by him someway to make them politically active (lost their job, their overtime, got shot in the leg, worried about their job going overseas). Plus don't forget, if they are computer experts or linguists, doctors or nurses they will have to register for the SPECIAL SKILLS and MEDICAL DRAFT by May 1, 2005 (after Bush and the COngress reinstate conscription on April 1, 2005 -- April Fool's Day).

So let's not let this divide us -- it is not real compared to the PNAC Plan to take Central Asia. THAT is real.

[Rainbows]

39. Do you have any links ...

for the May 1 and April Fools draft? Did I miss this one or was your statement said in jest?

[Dems Will Win]

41. Not in jest

http://www.sss.gov/perfplan_FY2004.html

Lot to read, but on March 31, 2005, the Selective Service must report it is ready to conscript within 75 days. So on April 1, 2005 Bush will likely ask the Congress for authorization, which would pass immediately (it's a trigger mechanism) and the first Lottery of all 20 year-old men would be June 15, 2005.

[Eurobabe]

20. a bit overgeneralized?

nah, my two girls one born in 1981 and the other in 1984, are not going that far left. i see some of their generation going that direction (Dem or Green) but far more are as you said somewhat conservative. (mind you, not Republicans.)

k., the older is a bit apathetic about politics, which i find disturbing. she is more into theater! sad. the younger, m. just registered for the PA primary as a Dem so she can vote for her candidate of choice. and it ain't Dean. sorry!

I was not politically active myself either, until just before 2000. but politics are all they hear me talk about these days, so naturally they are paying more attention to it.

[Dems Will Win]

21. People don't really become political until a certain age and series of

events hits them. I'm predicting what will happen in 2004 and 2005 as the election and the coming DRAFT enters their consciousness and their CONSCIENCE. Many but certainly not all Pro-Bush or apathetic Millennials will then go Dean as the Dean outreach efforts call all of them on the phone or knock on their door.

Meanwhile, the Millennials already aware will finally have a reason to vote but they won't even register unless their state has an important primary or until the Dean campaign contacts them and registers them on the spot (March to October 2004).

So whatever is true now will be completely transformed by October 2004. Then take a survey, Mr. Rove -- and read it and weep because Bush cannot win, even after they steal FL and OH.

[tinrobot]

22. Sounds familiar...

What you're describing sounds a lot like the 60's generation. As liberal and as socially concious as they were, the baby boomers still failed to keep Nixon out of office -- twice.

With this administration even worse than Nixon's I sure hope history does not repeat itself.

[Dems Will Win]

23. That's because all that energy went to electing Bobby Kennedy

and when Humphrey became the nominee, the Boomers deserted the party and fought it in Chicago. If Dean is the nominee it won't happen but if God forbid Leiberman is the nominee it likely will, as bad as Bush is! Then in '72 the Boomers took over the party with McGovern and turned off the conservative liberal wing of the party. If Dean is the nominee that won't happen because Bush is so bad, they will vote Dean even though they know they will have to scrap the DLC. Once they understand who the Millennials are and how 3.75 million will be eligible to vote every year, they will realize the pendulum really is swinging left once again.

Also people will soon know that if they vote for Bush or don't vote this time, they themselves could be drafted in a MEDICAL or SPECIAL SKILLS DRAFT in 2005. That'll get them off their duffs!

[Rainbows]

37. A Lot of boomers were not 21 ...

in 1968, the voting age then. Though they could be drafted and serve in a war time army, they could not vote, drink, or watch girlie shows in night cubs even.

[John_H]

26. Oh no! Not the new voter argument again!

McGovern. Perot. Nader. Anderson. Certain loss!!!

As per ususal: these two thousand word pie in the sky scenarios can't obfuscate the simple fact:

1) Bush and media friends WILL make election about national security. Denial is wonderful, but please don't indulge in it. Please?

2) We either run candidate who takes that strategy away and then hits on the issues dems win with or we elect a candidate who gives the GOP a 2000 ton sledgehammer.

[mermaid]

27. The Millennials

OH, PLEEEEEASE let this be true!!!

I wish I had more optimism!!!

[windansea]

28. Harvard poll of college students

are these the millenials that will save Dean??

WASHINGTON -- College students, are more likely than the general public to approve of the job that President Bush is doing, according to a new poll conducted by the Harvard University Institute of Politics.

The poll found 61 percent of U.S. undergraduate students think Bush is doing a good job, despite concerns about Iraq and the economy, compared with 53 percent of the nation as a whole. This level of support among students has held steady since April, even as Bush's overall approval rating has dropped by 12 percentage points, the institute said.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/03296/233490.stm

[Dems Will Win]

30. This poll is highly skewed toward very rich Republicans that can afford

to go to Harvard. Look at the plan to vote at 82%!! A poll of the general population (most of whom can't afford or don't have the grades to go to Harvard) would be needed but would be meaningless at this point.

Polls usually show a youth voting rate in the 30s not the 80s, although I do believe the voting rate will soar, and it will be overwhelmingly for Dean among 17-21 year olds once the campaign is in full swing and a million plus more jobs, high-tech ones this time, are shipped to India and China. Add to that the fear of a NEW DRAFT and you will see a real shift in the polls as the MILLENNIALS get ignited by Dean and it becomes COOL to vote again--and even volunteer for Dean.

[windansea]

31. the poll was taken nationally

http://www.iop.harvard.edu/

[Dems Will Win]

33. You're right, but that poll is still skewed here's a Princeton Poll closer

to the mark, and reflects the true mood we'll find after the young start thinking about how Bush is affecting their own lives:

http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/archives/2003/11/10/news/9050.shtml

Prince poll discovers students disapprove of President Bush

Daniel Lipsky-Karasz
Princetonian Senior Writer

A Daily Princetonian poll conducted last week found a majority of undergraduates disapprove of President Bush's performance as U.S. president and nearly half believe the situation in Iraq was not worth going to war over.

In the poll of 213 students, 28 percent of students expressed approval for Bush's performance as president, while 58 percent disapproved.

The level of support for the president among University students is significantly lower than among the American population at large, according to recent polls. A Gallup poll conducted last week found that 54 percent of Americans approve of Bush's job performance and 43 percent disapprove.

[windansea]

36. you are too funny

first you tell me the Harvard Poll is "is highly skewed toward very rich Republicans that can afford to go to Harvard"


now you are saying a Princeton poll that is not nationally based like the Harvard one is better?? I guess no rich kids go to Princeton huh??

not too "professional" are you?

and please enlighten us on how Rangel's draft bill can be blamed on Bush...

[mitchum]

40. sharp eye there, windansea, but remember...

contradictory bullshit and professionalism can often be found together

[windansea]

32. by the way...who is sponsoring that new draft bill?? n/t

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ozone_man]

35. I think this generational effect is real.

One hopes that the progressive baby boom generation successfully transfers their ideal and values to the Millennial generation. From what I see, it looks promising. Dean seems to be tapping into this young voter enthusiasm. The anti Vietnam war movement and liberal thinking of the 60's and early 70's is now fostering the anti PNAC movement and perhaps a green generation of the new Millennium. Hope for the future.

[Rainbows]

38. Excellent post and few coments...

I downloaded the linked Selective Service System publication. Several thoughts have emerged since reading.
1. During a republican congress during late 90's and about the time the PNAC was firing up, a lot of momentum toward reviving the selective service system from its slumber was being born. The good old 'Contract for America' showing signs of fruit. One could argue someone saw a need for the coming draft and started preparing then.
2. Any one remember the No Child Left Behind legislation passed in the 107th Congress? The clause that required public funded high schools eligible for federal funds to provide a list of students for this very purpose, register for public service and lists to be given to armed service recruiters.
3. I've noticed several articles of late about about the activity of the Selective Service Web site going through some changes and will have to track them down again. Someone above posted a tentative June 05 lottery date, any handy links or should I google?
4. Another interesting point was the 85% compliance from high schools to the selective service board. Makes me wonder if the fifteen % non compliance high schools will be either faith based or private schools, effectively letting the middle and lower class heathens supply the bodies for war. Just speculation of course, but probably worth some research if one knew where to start.
5. The computerized high tech evolution of reporting procedures for potential bodies focuses on required male registration with no mention of female required registration.
6. Yet another point of interest is the Orwellian 'Total Information Awareness' this upgrade of selective service with the overlapping nets of data basing to insure few escape the lottery, with all this info kept on file for future use of course.
7. I might like to pen a couple of articles for the local paper on this, do you mind if I PM you.

[Dems Will Win]

42. Here's another poll that had youth leaning to Dems at 51%, up from 32%

Here's another poll that had youth leaning to Dems at 51%, up from 32%

in Sept/Oct 2002

http://www.pewtrusts.com/pdf/young_voters5_081103.pdf

This is a poll of all youth 18-24 of 960 calls, not just the college undergraduates like in the Harvard national and Princeton polls. Not just college students vote you know. And only the 18-20 year olds in this poll were Millennials and so even this poll doesn't give us the generational breakdown, as it mixes 2 years of Millennials with the last 4 years of Gen X.

The Dem ID went up from 32% in 1998 to 51% in 2002 (the Harvard national poll of students only counted 28% Democrat). Quite a rise although the surveyers think their samples from Scranton and El Paso helped there.

The main point is, for those who still don't get it, is that many in the group of 18 to 22 year-olds will not become politically active until they are reached out to by both the Dean and Bush campaigns. That will happen soon and Dean will be far more successful tapping into the non-voters as they are more naturally Democrat due to the Millennial echo of Boomer politics and activism.

So whether the rate for Dean now is low or many say they won't vote is irrelevant. When they are contacted, and this poll shows how to do that by the way, it was a study of just that, then young adults become active and the Millennials will be that SQUARED!

Just a prediction based on the predictions of Howe and Strauss in the Generations book--that's why looking at polls now is just plain silly!

[bitchkitty]

43. Dems Will Win,

you are fast becoming my favorite poster! More wonderful threads like this one, please!

[Dems Will Win]

44. Bitchkitty, you warm the cockles of my heart!

BTW, what is a cockle? Maybe I don't want to know. But whatever it is--you warm it.

Read this book, especially the last two-thirds of it -- The Future of Man by Teilhard de Chardin:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0060904968/qid=1072495419/sr=1-5/ref=sr_1_5/002-0321525-5012815?v=glance&s=books

He is the great genius of the 20th Century!