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Edited on Thu Feb-05-04 01:47 AM by BillyBunter
For his original campaign strategy to work, he would have needed to use the South as a base. He has true crossover appeal, and with the South as a base, he would have been able to wipe the floor with the other candidates as the election wore on. Unfortunately, Edwards did well in Iowa, which kept him in the race. So now, he has to knock Edwards out, then deal with Kerry, who is essentially running unopposed in the rest of the country, Dean's spider trap in Wisconsin notwithstanding.
The deal with campaigns is that when a candidate is doing well, everyone assumes they are running a great campaign, and everything is fantastic; when they run into trouble, everyone assumes their campaign is a disaster, blah blah blah. Two months ago, everyone was laughing at Kerry and his lackluster campaign, calling him wooden, boring, unenergetic, and so on, while Dean was running this amazing campaign, the money and endorsements were pouring in, he was going to revolutionize campaigning, yadda yadda yadda.
The truth is, there is a ton of luck involved with even the best campaigns. Sure, the skillset and appeal of the candidate is huge, sure, a good campaign manager has a big impact, but the reality is, each candidate has a set of strengths and a unique appeal the value of which wax and wane with events outside the candidate's control. The capture of Saddam and the bounce of the economy killed Dean as much as his own arrogance and bluster did; that capture also probably hurt Clark to a certain extent. These same events made Kerry, an establishment figure, more appealing because he was safer -- less likely to upset the status quo, which mainstream folks hope is pretty decent right now. So the outsider message has lost a lot of its appeal. There isn't a thing the candidates can do about that besides shift their message as much as they can to adjust to the new reality, and keep pushing on.
Overall, Clark has done pretty well for himself as someone who came into the race who terrified both the Republicans and the extreme left, and took a tremendous amount of flak from both sides as a result, and who was new to politics. As a Draft Clarker, I was really disappointed that he hadn't put together at least the skeleton of an organization before he decided to run; I think that, and circumstances he couldn't control, rather than any problem with his campaign since, are the big problems he has had to face.
Assuming he doesn't pull this out, and assuming the Dems lose in 04, I would like to see him run again in 08, but this time with the benefit of a slower-developing campaign, where he gets to hone his message over time. If you saw him in his earlier days, and saw him now, you know how much he's grown as a candidate in the past 4 months -- yes, he's only been a candidate for 4 months -- and I want to see him in an environment where he isn't essentially reacting and devoting himself to damage control all the time. Frankly, he reminds me a ton of Jimmy Carter, and Carter ran a thoughtful campaign in 1975-76, where he travelled the country and listened to people, then fashioned his message and went at it. That would be perfect for Clark, who is thoughtful and analytical, but lacks the typical politician's glib slipperyness. Put him in a position where he has defined himself and his message before the campaign really starts, and I think he would be far more formidable than he's shown --and again, he really hasn't done that badly this time around.
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