Israel's attacks on Lebanon not about Hezbollah per se......

[Dover]

It is easy to get emotionally swept up in debating the injustices to Lebanese civilians and the disproportionate response from Israel, and miss the bigger picture.

It's my contention that while any disruption to Hezbollah and their supporters is a minor incentive for Israel, the main goal is Syria and Iran. Israel is in alliance with U.S./U.K goals to break up the Syrian/Iranian partnership and prevent this economic/geostrategic power set from implementing their larger goals (oil/gas, pipelines, bourse, etc.)which is in direct competition with U.S./U.K. interests. So they begin by knocking out any potential support from Lebanon prior to an invasion of Syria by targeting Lebonese defenses and infrastructure. They did this in Iraq before the actual invasion ensued. And by taking out Syria, they are essentially surrounding Iran without directly attacking it....yet. The squeeze is on.

The question remains...what will Russia, China, and other potential Iranian economic partners do?

If you disagree, then at least broaden your perspective about the economic environment in which this is all unfolding:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1677376&mesg_id=1677376

[lebkuchen]

1. I agree with you.

But I wonder about Bushy reliability on the US military at this point. The army and marines are tired after multiple deployments, and equipment is wearing out.

It's only a matter of time before the US is attacking Iran/Syria, but will this happen before the election? I think yes because war always helps the incumbent party, and the incumbent party needs a hat trick right about now, but surely a draft will not take place until after November--?

My vet friend spoke with two IA National Guard members in the mall the other day. They were training in MN for their third deployment, which will take place soon. One Guard member, the older one, said that a lot of his friends had been killed or wounded in Iraq, and that several Guard were returning there seeking revenge.

US soldiers with a bad "take no prisoners" attitude entering Iran/Syria is probably just what the Nazi doctors ordered.

[Dover]

5. I've always thought that the gov-controlled military was just another

federal "program" that the neocons and corporate backers hoped to phase out so they can use non-regulated private armies and high tech tools (Rummy's wet dream). And of these, the least likely to just 'go along' with the insanity are the reservists/national guard troops who are the least indotrinated due to their integration into the fabric of 'normal' life. So they simply use them up and throw them away. What's sad is that, like the one Guard you spoke to, the soldiers turn their anger toward the Iraqis rather than those who are supporting this travesty.


And chaos in Iraq (though politically tough) is the lesser of two evils in the minds of the neocon whose sites are set on Iran.
Plus the chaos works for them to further the argument that our troops need to stay in Iraq.

[lebkuchen]

9. Also sad that the soldiers turn their anger against those

they're tasked to help. I guess that irony is lost on them.

At any rate, any war with Syria and Iran is going to involve troops. Although Bush went to great lengths to increase military enlistments post-HS graduation (or dropout), I doubt the army or Guard units is making quota, unless Rummy has lowered it.

It will be interesting to see how our military holds up to yet another war front when it is barely sustaining itself in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[DoYouEverWonder]

10. That is why

they are using the Israeli Army this time.

[lebkuchen]

13. Israel is the only country the US will be able to rely on

I doubt the UK will be supplying their two pounds. They can't wait to get rid of Blair as it is.

[JuniperLea]

2. That was my take all along

Just another excuse to start the mayhem. If Israel really wanted the Hezbollah missiles to stop, they would have stopped by now. God knows we've funneled enough money into Israel's weaponry that they must have the latest and greatest technology. I'm convinced it's all a sham that will lead to what they really want. I'm sure that's why it's taking so long to get our Secretary of Defense over there. "We" don't want diplomacy either.

[RoseMead]

3. I've been wondering about that myself

One thing I've learned regarding US foreign policy is that there's always a big picture...with an even bigger picture behind it.

[Dover]

7. Follow the money.......n/t

[Karenina]

11. Follow the WATER. Look at a map.

The Israelis want access to the Litani River and will create their "buffer zone" to ensure they get it.

[lebkuchen]

14. Hi Karenina

Long time no see!

Do you happen to have a map of whatever the PNACers might be using? A few years ago someone sent me a map of Eastern Europe, the Middle East and central Asia, showing the plans for gas/oil pipelines and such. That is all coming to pass now, and I wish I had a map to follow the action.

[Karenina]

21. Meine Liebe!!!

We had a Sommertraum auf Schwartz-Rot-Gold, the PEACE is still in the air with the flags of ALL NATIONS still flying. And now this. :cry: It's all about fighting for resources. The Oil Wars will fade into insignificance compared to the WATER WARS...

http://www.merip.org/mero/mero093002.html

http://www.american.edu/ted/ice/litani.htm

[lebkuchen]

26. thanks for that info.

I will check it out.

I was sorry not to be in Germany for the bigger games. I caught the first two, and it was wonderful seeing so much enthusiasm among the Germans, with cars honking, flags everywhere. I particularly liked seeing two Americans at the Frankfurt airport with US flags wrapped around their necks, worn as capes, a week after the US got its ass kicked in its first game. Never say die! :)

PS I canNOT wait to return, in a few days. I have never met so many ignorant people as I have US midwesterners. I'm doing fairly well biting my tongue by killing hours in the town library. Coronas help, too. I wish I had one now.

[Dover]

15. Makes sense....very possibly.

I'm guessing their reasons are several, as are those of the U.S., U.K. and others.

[Dover]

20. Yes, here's an article about the water dispute between Israel/Lebanon

Orgininally posted by another DUer.

World Briefing | Middle East:
Lebanon: Water Dispute With Israel


Published: October 8, 2002
Senior officials from the United States Embassy in Beirut met Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri to try to defuse a dispute with Israel over Lebanon's plans to use water both countries say they need.
Cont'd

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9905E4D7103BF93BA35753C1A9649C8B63

and the history of the water disputes:

http://www.american.edu/TED/ice/JORDAN.HTM

[Zhade]

24. Indeed!

Btw, tell your oldest (J is your oldest, ja?) that Matt says hi!

[Karenina]

29. Will do!!!

:hi:

[SeaBob]

4. latest mideast fray

this looks like an excellent time to develop bio diesel. I see where the state of Indiana has authorized funding for 18 bio diesel refineries

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. I think what we are seeing is

the realignment of world powers. China may well decide to get involved, and if they are able to broker some sort of cease fire their stature on the world stage will increase. And perhaps it will have to take some country without ties to either side to broker the settlement.

[peacetalksforall]

8. No disagreement here. The UK US Israel agendas are varied, but

solidly together - standing over and controlling the land beneath other people's feet - tossing them out as if they had ovens and trains.

I only add to your list - the need to establish the pipelines. I don't read many references to them - but the oil and water pipelines to the Mediterranean are also key, imo. Perhaps a sub-set. I think a primary set.

The citizens against the killing and desctruction are still quiet and everyone is still going to their malls, cabins, parties and they're still sitting at sidewalk cafes in the UK and US, and are mostly obedient and supportive in Israel. Not all. More in Israel seem to be speaking out.

Out of severly bad comes some good?

Please don't anyone here tell me that PNAC rule is waning. They are at it in full gear. Rumsfeld and Cheney are charged. Rice is in her heaven. George is stuffing his face and spitting out words for them, doing what he's told with ineptness.

They will soon be asking for 300 billion for Blackwell Harry's, Bob's, and Joe's. Our pilots haven't flown enough hours. And the bomb aresenals are stuffed.

After all, there are only humans, bridges, reservoirs, mosques, and homes to take care of.

Sorry, for the bluntness. This has been a teary day. I've been away from it all for most of many days, and the GE, Time-Warner, Murdoch paradise has been sufferable for me.

Yeah, for killing for the bourse. Right?

[lebkuchen]

12. exactly

on all points.

PNAC is on schedule.

Americans are too confused about politics in the Middle East to understand how they are going to be sacrificing more of their own in that region eventually, and they won't necessarily be the dotted-line signers.

[Dover]

16. Lots of corporate backers for PNAC

lest we forget.

[pdxmike]

17. I don't buy it

To accept this, you have to think that Israel buys the PNAC pie-in-the-sky lunacy. This has never been the case. They were more than willing to let Bush delude himself about "transformational" change and all that nonsense, as long as it suited their purposes. But as Seymor Hersch has pointed out, they actually think our policy in Iraq has been a disaster (although they weren't sad to see Hussein go).
Israel has an almost pathologic fear of Hezbollah. In a sense, this has nothing to do with their conflict with the Palestinians. No matter how the Palestinian/Israel morass is settled, there is no settlement possible between Hezbollah and Israel. This is a distinction rarely made in the media.

In Israel there is a huge range of public opinion on how to deal with the Palestinians(from the far right to the far left). In contrast, there is very little disagreement about Hezbollah. What is happening now is something that almost all Israelis have been dreading, but at the same, time knew was inevitable.

[lebkuchen]

18. What a pity that Lebanon's destruction is "inevitable" in the process

The 2009 Frankophone Games that Beruit was to host look like a "no-go." The 2024 Summer Olympic Games?

Fagetaboutit.

[Dover]

19. And Iran/Syria isn't Israel's goal as well?

I never said Hezbollah was insignificant to the Israelis. Just that it was minor, or one of many of the reasons for their aggressions. I doubt they actually intend to control Hezbollah via their recent actions. That disproportionate response had other purposes. I'm guessing they will try to get their main Lebonese targets knocked out quickly before the momentum against their illegal activities gains too much steam.
I assume that Israel will get several 'needs' met through their cooperation with the U.S./U.K.
The U.S. has proved time and again that agreement on the policies and even the 'lunacy' of one's partner in crime is not a prerequisite for cooperation. It benefits Israel to get Lebanon/Syria/Iran under their/our control and serves other purposes, some of which were mentioned in this thread.

[pdxmike]

22. just how will Israel control Lebanon/Iran/Syria?

I sometimes think that people think of Israel as some all-powerfull, all-controlling bogeyman. Some kind of sinister and mysterious force that can bend others to her will. Either that, or the opposite, that Israel is some PNAC stooge. That they are obediently doing the bidding of the neo-cons.
Israel has very bad memories of southern Lebanon. They were embroiled in a bloody and unpopular and ultimately counter-productive occupation. Believe it or not, they have no desire to, or stomach for, another occupation of southern Lebanon.
They also have no interest in destabilizing Syria. Do you really think that they would be happy to see Assad fall, to be possibly replaced by an Islamic theocracy? Israel can see how well that's going in Iraq.
Dover- I agree with you that Israel does not mean to "control Hezbollah". That's probably not possible via this route. That can only be done via negotiations with their sponsors- Iran and Syria. This can only happen when the US is willing to act as a somewhat even-handed broker(the Arab world knew that Clinton was not really "neutral". But they still trusted him, for the most part). That will NEVER happen as long as Bush is President.

[IndianaGreen]

25. Israel will keep the Arabs fighting with each other

Israel created Hamas as an alternative to the PLO. One of the goals of bombing Beirut was to cause a rift among the Shia, Sunnis, and Christians. The bombing has united the Lebanese instead, and it has brought Sunni and Shia together across the region in opposition of Israel's imperialism and American enabling of war crimes.

[Dover]

28. Israel isn't working alone.....they have partners in the U.S./U.K.

There is nothing mysterious about it. They share mutual goals derived, perhaps, to some extent
from different incentives. I read that several former Iranian leaders have been meeting in Europe to discuss regime change in Iran (which is similar to meetings of former Iraqi leaders that took place prior to Saddam's fall).

The U.S. has been saying for some time now that Iran is on the menu, and Syria is the side dish.
No secret or mystery there either.
Also Iran has made a point of warning Israel not to attack Syria.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L13460060.htm

So Iran certainly thinks Israel has incentive to attack Syria.......it's not just my imagination.
I assume there are plans for regime change in Syria as well. Or perhaps they won't actually attempt to control Syria, but will instead do what they did to Lebanon and simply disarm them so they can't assist Iran...again attacking via false or exaggerated pretense.

Can they be successful?
Well, it depends on what you see as their ultimate goal. I don't think they see Iraq as a failure
if you consider that their goal for the time being is simply to take them out of commission and put U.S. troops and bases on Iran's doorstep, within striking distance.
Iraq, for all the apparent chaos, is right where the U.S. wants it...impotent. (Never mind the political fallout at home....just the cost of doing business. They have bigger fish to fry).

My guess is that the U.S/U.K/Israel hope to surround and pressure Iran to change their ways. But if they then don't get the response they want from Iran then I don't think they'll use diplomatic tactics. I think it's entirely possible that they could hit Iran like they hit Japan in WWII
....fast and devastating. Our troops are already spread too thin and I doubt they want to risk any kind of prolonged fighting. I hope I'm way off the mark with my amateur analysis, but we may not have seen the worst yet. If they feel that taking out Iran is their best or only chance for survival then they just might do it.

As long as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Russia and China, don't interfere, then they probably
figure they can get away with this. But that's a BIG gamble.
I don't think they will be "successful". Too many players and things that can go wrong.

[peacetalksforall]

27. I think your logic is OK, however. will Israel, the US and UK ever control

those three countries. We don't control much in Iraq and Afgainistan may go the same way.

I feel that Israel and the USUK have a pact. Israel will 'attempt' Lebanon and Syria and the USUK will 'attempt' Iran.

I am using the word 'attempt' because I can't bear to write 'take'.

[DELUSIONAL]

23. Add to this list -- WATER resources

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2249599.stm

Israel warns of war over water

Israel once controlled the River Hasbani
An alleged Lebanese scheme to divert water from a river feeding Israel's largest reservoir could provoke a war, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has warned.

Israeli army radio quoted the prime minister as saying on Tuesday that the issue constituted a "casus belli", or "grounds for war".

He was addressing senior military and civilian officials after a cabinet meeting.

Lebanon opened a pumping-station on the River Hasbani in the spring of 2001 to irrigate a drought-stricken village but denies that it plans to dam the river.

The river supplies between 20 and 25% of the water flowing into the Sea of Galilee, an official at Israel's Ministry of Agriculture was quoted as saying by the French news agency AFP.

It rises in Lebanon and flows for about 50 kilometres (30 miles) through its territory before joining the River Jordan and emptying into the Sea of Galilee.


Hizbolla -- this is an easy to understand -- emotional trigger word -- to understand and excuse the reason for this aggressive action being taken by Israel.

Combine OIL and WATER -- and the reasons for this war are far more complex. BUT it does explain why bush is acting like the village idiot and why there will be NO move to stop this war.

Also we know that Israel has been planning this war for a long time and has been ready to go to war for over a year.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/07/21/MIDEAST.TMP

Israel set war plan more than a year ago
Strategy was put in motion as Hezbollah began increasing its military strength


The Hizbolla reason for war is easy to understand -- the real reason for this war is much more complex.

But then OIL and WATER -- aren't that hard to understand.