Michigan: Zogby: Kerry 47, Dean 10, Edwards 8, Clark 4, Sharpton 2, DK 1

[Renew Deal]

Michigan Caucus: February 7

02-05-04

Kerry 47
Dean 10
Edwards 8
Clark 4
Sharpton 2
Kucinich 1
Undecided 23

[BootinUp]

1. Don't worry

The media will hype Edwards into second before long.

[lancdem]

2. With Kerry having a 37-point lead

it doesn't matter who's second.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. greater than undecideds

significantly greater.

[AP]

4. And don't worry. The more people hear from Clark, the lower his

numbers will go.

[BootinUp]

6. Like the tootsie pop commercial: We may never know

[AP]

10. We already know: look at NH, OK, SC.

The more people hear from him, the less interested he is.

He's a great guy on paper, but his son can't talk for him all the time.

[Monument]

12. John Kerry doesn't have a son

[BootinUp]

14. I think your case is quite weak then - warning strong language-

Last I heard Clark won OK
and he was up against home boys in the other 2 states. What will it take for people to give a total fuckin newcomer to the game some goddamn credit!

:grr:

[spooky3]

5. To gauge the likely accuracy of Zogby's poll, consider this

until the day before the New Hampshire primary he had the candidates essentially neck and neck. Kerry won by a substantial margin.

His 2/2 South Carolina prediction was Edwards 36, Kerry 32, a statistical dead heat. The actuals were Edwards 45, Kerry 30. For Missouri, he predicted Kerry 56, Edwards 17. The actuals were Kerry 50, Edwards 27.

He was a lot closer on Arizona and Oklahoma.

[cjbuchanan]

7. How have the polls done so far?

Here is a list of final day polls and state results from dailykos.

Overall, Zogby has not been that far off.


Iowa

       Actual  ARG  SUSA  DMRegister  Zogby
Kerry     38     -    21      26         25
Edwards 32     -    22      23         21
Dean     18     -    24      20         22
Gephardt11     -    20      18         18

New Hampshire

       Actual  ARG  SUSA  Gallup  Zogby
Kerry     38    35    33     36      37
Dean     26    25    28     25      24
Clark     12    13    12     13       9
Edwards12    15    14     10      12
Lieb       9     6     7     10       9

Arizona

       Actual  ARG  SUSA  LATimes  Zogby
Kerry    43    32    34     29      42
Clark    27    21    28     22      28
Dean     14    10    18     13      15
Edwards   7    11     7      8       7
Lieb       7     9     -      3       6

Delaware

       Actual  ARG  SUSA  
Kerry    50    27    42    
Lieb     11    16    10    
Edwards 11     9    11    
Dean     10    14    12    
Clark     10     8     9  

Missouri

       Actual  ARG  SUSA  Zogby
Kerry    51    46    44     56
Edwards25    15    20     17
Dean       9     7    15      9
Clark     4     6     6      6
Lieb       4     3     -      3

Oklahoma

       Actual  ARG  SUSA  Zogby
Clark     30    28    29     31
Edwards 30    21    27     26
Kerry     27    25    26     29
Lieb       6     7     -      6
Dean       4     8     7      6

South Carolina

       Actual  ARG  SUSA  CBS  Zogby
Edwards  45    31    34   28    36
Kerry     30    24    17   24    32
Sharpton 10    10    12   13     8
Dean       5     9     9    8     8

[King of New Orleans]

8. Zogby as good or bad as the rest

The last night of polling in NH miraculously brought Zogby's poll closer to the others (and the actually result). Zogby was a little more off on SC than the others though.

Not to nitpick too much but the final (actual vote) tally in MO was 51-25 a little outside the margin of error.

[mohc]

9. The reason Zogby gets better in the last day or so

Is because he finally factors in leaners. Every other pollster factors them in at all times, or at least gives a breakdown. Thats why we were seeing huge number of undecideds in Zogby's NH poll compared to ARG. While this is not dishonest in any way, it certainly reduces the accuracy of his trend lines.

[TexasSissy]

11. Whoa. But I heard Zogby had been discredited and is no longer

being reported by national news media because of that. It's supposedly a right wing agenda poll that prints what the Repubs WANT to happen, by skewing results.

[Minstrel Boy]

15. From Slate, 2000: "his polls make Republicans feel good"

"The most important reason for Zogby's popularity is that his polls make Republicans feel good. Conservatives clutched at his accurate prediction of the 1996 race because it seemed to show that Clinton wasn't so popular after all. Since then, Zogby's numbers have usually shown Republicans doing better than they do in other polls. (Zogby is a registered Democrat and, he says, a liberal.) My hunch is that Zogby's method of determining who's a "likely voter" emphasizes low-turnout elections, especially ones in which Republicans are disproportionately able to mobilize their base. That allows him to notice some Republican upsets that other pollsters miss. But it also sometimes leads him astray, as it did in the D'Amato-Schumer race.

"It's hard to blame Republican partisans for treating Zogby's calculations as electoral truth revealed from on high. But what's the media's excuse?"
http://slate.msn.com/id/76221#ContinueArticle

Zogby came to Canada in 2000 and its polls definitely skewed to the right.

[dolstein]

13. It's too bad Edwards isn't making an effort in Michigan

I suspect that with a little effort, Edwards could get 20-25% of the vote. After all, he's the only top-tier candidate who opposed NAFTA from the beginning.

It's amazing what a difference a few thousand votes can make. If Edwards had finished third in New Hamsphire, instead of Clark, he might have gotten some real momentum coming out of that primary. And if Edwards had finished first in Oklahoma, Clark would probably be out of the race. Instead, Edwards now has to devote all his time to Tennessee and Virginia, and finishing Clark off for good.