Nevada DUers: What is your take on the Carter vs. Ensign Senate race?

[flpoljunkie]

Article from the Atlanta Journal Constitution about Jack Carter. I sent him a small amount of money several months ago, and a little more when his father sent out an email asking for support. Jack sent me a hand written post card thank you note, which I must say, impressed me--although I realize he is fighting an uphill battle for campaign funds. I know he is fighting an uphill battle, but why is Harry Reid not supporting him--other than it is a red state that he barely won himself in his last bid for re-election. What has Ensign done in the Senate? Nothing I can think of!

I hope Jack Carter gets swept into office by the huge democratic wave that many say is forming!

http://www.carterfornevada.com/node/262

[skipos]

1. I'd like to hear about any polls too. nt

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. What evidence do you have that Harry Reid is not supporting him?

:shrug:

[flpoljunkie]

4. Just what I read in the linked AJC article which is posted below...

"At this stage, Carter's chances of unseating Ensign are generally deemed as slim as his father's chance of winning the presidency when a 1974 headline famously dubbed him "Jimmy Who?" He trails Ensign by 20 points in recent polls, has been snubbed by the state's most powerful Democrat, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, and has barely $1 million in the bank — chicken feed in an era of $50 million-plus Senate contests."

[SteppingRazor]

3. While I'm not a Nev. resident...

I am following all the Senate races very closely. Although Nevada has slowly been trending Democrat over the last 10 years or so, all the polls I've seen show Ensign leading by 20 or 30 points. Unless something changes severely, Carter's a lost cause, I'm afraid :(

[flpoljunkie]

5. Hope springs eternal that Carter will be swept in by big Dem wave!

We need more Democrats in the Senate, and Jack Carter would make a fine replacement for John "Good Hair" Ensign.

[SteppingRazor]

6. Indeed, as Studs Terkel said, "Hope dies last"...

but unfortunately, hope's about all Carter has. We've got some pretty good odds in Penn., Ohio, RI and Mont. And a reasonably shot at Tenn. and Missouri. Hail Marys in Virginia and Arizona, though I don't really even count them as possibilities. Past that, the GOP has safe seats. But the good news is that the GOP has very few places to make in-roads -- just about every Democratic senator is safe.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I guess you have to live here to realize Ensign is entrenched

He's a pure mediocrity who can have that seat as long as he wants it. Unfortunately, that's not much of an exaggeration. Once Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman decided not to challenge Ensign, this race was over. Even Goodman, with a 90% approval rating in Las Vegas, would have been an underdog against Ensign.

Ensign is from Clark County. That's Las Vegas. More than half the votes in Nevada statewide races come from Clark County. It's a huge edge for a Republican to have a base in southern Nevada since the rest of the state votes red without looking at the names. For a Democrat to win Nevada, he/she needs a big number out of Las Vegas, and Ensign thwarts that.

The liberal blogs don't seem to get it. They look at the 55% number in his 2000 senate race and rationalize Nevada is turning blue, and dramatically overstate the vulnerability. Ensign hasn't expended any political capital by going against the grain in measures impacting the state. He opposed Yucca Mountain and also the anti-gambling measures like the McCain bill that would have banned legal wagering on college sports. Those were GOP backed bills so Ensign can claim he's not a rubber stamp, even if it's phony as hell.

Ensign had the congressional seat now held by Shelley Berkley, before he gave it up to challenge Harry Reid in '98, losing by 400 votes in a statewide hand recount, funded by the GOP before such a thing was heinous. He was a veterinarian for a decade before running for congress in '94, and ran a 24 hour animal clinic during that period. After losing the '98 senate race, he briefly returned to being a vet before winning the senate seat vacated by Richard Bryan. So during his campaigns they always show "oh how cute" pictures of Ensign in his white veterinarian robe, caring for a sick puppy.

Jack Carter is a good guy but he's destined for 40% of the vote, perhaps less.

[flpoljunkie]

8. Guess which R is sponsoring today's Senate debate on parental consent

for a minor to cross state lines to get an abortion? There are only a few states remaining without such laws.

You guess it! Senator John Ensign! How very interesting--what our Republican controlled Senate thinks worthy of their time--of which they have very little before the mid-terms--while the Middle East is in flames!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/25/AR2006072500165.html

"We should not criminalize the grandparents or clergy members to whom a teen in trouble might turn for help," said Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., who plans to introduce an amendment to protect such confidants from prosecution.

But Republicans, reopening the abortion debate ahead of this fall's midterm elections, say Congress must defend the parents' right to know when their children seek abortions. The bill, sponsored by Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., would exempt parents and the teens from prosecution but punish anyone else who helps them seek an abortion in another state with fines and up to a year in jail.

<>Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill, complained that the bill is the latest on a list of measures Republican leaders are bringing up for votes in an effort to appeal to the GOP's base of social conservatives. No one in his state has raised the practice of interstate abortions as a major source of concern, he said.

<>The states without parental notification or consent laws are: Washington, Oregon, New York, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, plus the District of Columbia.

[flpoljunkie]

9. Thanks for your insight. Ensign definitely does not impress in the Senate

but evidently that doesn't matter. Did not know he was a vet--how I wish folks were more informed--even ones who vote don't seem to be well informed. It is discouraging at times.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. He's unimpressive as hell but we need good candidates to emerge

Maybe Titus or Gibson can win the gov race this year then challenge Ensign in '12.

There's really been a lack of top shelf up and coming Democratic candidates in Nevada this decade. We got swept in the major statewide races in '02.

The one guy the party was counting on was Dario Herrera, a young handsome Hispanic, but he apparently got greedy and ethics charges ruined his bid for the new district 3 House race in '02. A few months ago he was convicted in the G Sting trial, so his political aspirations are gone.

This year the outlook is much better, in terms of potential gains in the state legislature. But the top statewide races don't look promising. We also took over the registration advantage in that House district 3, by narrow margin but it's positive since that district was intentionally drawn by the state legislature to drift steadily Republican.

Once again, the problem is lack of a candidate. Jon Porter defeated Herrera in that race in '02 virtually by default. He's every bit as unimpressive as Ensign but we can't find a top flight nominee to potentially defeat him, and it's incredibly frustrating.

[flpoljunkie]

11. Am hoping the good folks in Nevada will elect Jimmy Carter's son Jack.

He would be infinitely better than Ensign, and too damn bad that Ensign seemiingly has Las Vegas sewed up!

[TheVirginian]

12. Latest polling:

Zogby: (July)

Ensign: 49.5%
Carter: 35%


Zogby: (June)

Ensign: 50.5%
Carter: 36%


Research 2000: (May)

Ensign: 52%
Carter: 32%