Kerry way ahead in latest Wisconsin poll

[Feanorcurufinwe]

The poll, taken by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center and sponsored by The Capital Times and Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Of the possible candidates mentioned for the White House, John Kerry led, collecting support from 45 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of independents polled. He also was the Republicans' favorite, with 31 percent.

Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Howard Dean picked up no more than one-third of Kerry's level of support, and others even less. The poll was taken while Joe Lieberman was still in the running (he was preferred by 4 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of independents), so the numbers may have moved since then. Fifteen percent of Democrats and 23 percent of independents still had not chosen a candidate.

In a separate question inviting respondents to suggest a president, 4 percent said "anybody but Bush."

"Things are still fairly up in the air, people are not terribly anchored," Ferree said. "A lot will depend on what people hear about specific candidates."


http://www.madison.com/captimes_news/67441.php

[WI_DEM]

1. I'm not worried

Kerry's lead is built on the media proclaiming him the front runner and apparent nominee. So far no scrutiny of Kerry has been done to match in any degree what they did to Dean when he was front runner. I'm hoping this will change.

So I think that Kerry's lead in Wisconsin is large but not deeply committed. Dean did absolutely no adverstising media for the 2/3 states (a mistake in my view particularly in regards to New Mexico) but is going to put it all into Wisconsin, so this will be the first time Dean will really use advertising to get his message out since New Hampshire.

Dean's support I would guess is also more strongly committed. Wisconsin is an Independent state and I expect this contest to get very close here. I know that I and hundreds of other volunteers will be working hard to GOTV on 2/17. Dean has laid it on the line and now we must deliver.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. If the organization couldn't deliver in NH

where they put in so much effort and money, why would it happen in WI?

[WI_DEM]

5. If you recall

Dean was sliding to third in NH after the set back in Iowa. His campaign came fighting back and thru organization and the message of a great candidate we came back coming in a solid second--well ahead of the third place shower. Kerry's support here is wide but not very deep.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. Dean has said second won't be good enough. If he doesn't win WI

he's dropping out. Maybe he's not as delusional as I thought.

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

7. The media "proclaimed" Kerry the front runner?

Kerry has won 7 out of 9 primaries. He IS the front runner no matter how you try to spin it. You act like the media is supposed to ignore the fact that Dean is placing 3rd, 4th, and 5th and and pretend HE is the front runner when the voters clearly don't agree.

I admire anyone's dedication to the candidate of their choosing, but you cannot speak for Kerry's large lead in Wisconsin as being supporters not deeply committed. Kerry has an impressive career and record of public service, and I believe a lot of voters are damned serious this year about finding someone to replace Bush and get this country back on track.

The voters are not just drawing straws to chose a candidate to vote for in the primaries. They are looking them over and voting for the ones they like the best.

[wndycty]

3. Those poll numbers change depending on what Clark and Edwards do. . .

. . .on February 10.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. Twelve days out - of course they'll change