A Time To Act (it's time for Bush, Bolton, Rice to stop pretending)

[ProSense]

A Time To Act

By Warren Christopher
Friday, July 28, 2006; Page A25

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's just-concluded trip to Lebanon, Israel and Rome was an exercise in grace, bravery and, to my regret, wrongly focused diplomacy. Especially disappointing is the fact that she resisted all suggestions that the first order of business should be negotiation of an immediate cease-fire between the warring parties.

In the course of her trip, the secretary repeatedly insisted that any cease-fire be tied to a "permanent" and "sustainable" solution to the root causes of the conflict. Such a solution is achievable, if at all, only after protracted negotiations involving multiple parties. In the meantime, civilians will continue to die, precious infrastructure will continue to be destroyed and the fragile Lebanese democracy will continue to erode.

My own experience in the region underlies my belief that in the short term we should focus our efforts on stopping the killing. Twice during my four years as secretary of state we faced situations similar to the one that confronts us today. Twice, at the request of the Israelis, we helped bring the bloodshed to an end.

In June 1993, Israel responded to Hezbollah rocket attacks along its northern border by launching Operation Accountability, resulting in the expulsion of 250,000 civilians from the southern part of Lebanon.

Snip...

What do these episodes teach us?

First, as in 1996, an immediate cease-fire must take priority, with negotiations on longer-term arrangements to follow. Achieving a cease-fire will be difficult enough without overloading the initial negotiations with a search for permanent solutions.

more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/27/AR2006072701420.html

Refugees

Christians Fleeing Lebanon Denounce Hezbollah

By SABRINA TAVERNISE
Published: July 28, 2006

TYRE, Lebanon, July 27 — The refugees from southern Lebanon spilled out of packed cars into the dark street here Thursday evening, gulping bottles of water and squinting in the glare of the headlights to find family members and friends. Many had not eaten in days. Most had not had clean drinking water for some time. There were wounded swathed in makeshift dressings, and a baby just 16 days old.

But for some of the Christians who had made it out in this convoy, it was not just privations they wanted to talk about, but their ordeal at the hands of Hezbollah — a contrast to the Shiites, who make up a vast majority of the population in southern Lebanon and broadly support the militia.

“Hezbollah came to Ain Ebel to shoot its rockets,” said Fayad Hanna Amar, a young Christian man, referring to his village. “They are shooting from between our houses.”

“Please,’’ he added, “write that in your newspaper.”

The evacuation — more than 100 cars that followed an International Committee for the Red Cross rescue convoy to Tyre — included Lebanese from several Christian villages. In past wars, Christian militias were close to Israelis, and animosity between Christians and Shiites lingers.

more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/28/world/middleeast/28refugees.html

(Warning graphic photo)

Changing Reaction

Tide of Arab Opinion Turns to Support for Hezbollah

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
Published: July 28, 2006

DAMASCUS, Syria, July 27 — At the onset of the Lebanese crisis, Arab governments, starting with Saudi Arabia, slammed Hezbollah for recklessly provoking a war, providing what the United States and Israel took as a wink and a nod to continue the fight.

Now, with hundreds of Lebanese dead and Hezbollah holding out against the vaunted Israeli military for more than two weeks, the tide of public opinion across the Arab world is surging behind the organization, transforming the Shiite group’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, into a folk hero and forcing a change in official statements.

The Saudi royal family and King Abdullah II of Jordan, who were initially more worried about the rising power of Shiite Iran, Hezbollah’s main sponsor, are scrambling to distance themselves from Washington.

An outpouring of newspaper columns, cartoons, blogs and public poetry readings have showered praise on Hezbollah while attacking the United States and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for trumpeting American plans for a “new Middle East” that they say has led only to violence and repression.

Even Al Qaeda, run by violent Sunni Muslim extremists normally hostile to all Shiites, has gotten into the act, with its deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, releasing a taped message saying that through its fighting in Iraq, his organization was also trying to liberate Palestine.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/28/world/middleeast/28arabs.html

The right pundits offers nothing but excuses, but even their comments shine a spotlight on Bush's failed foreign policy:

Friday, July 28, 2006

The advantages of speed

If this New York Times report is accurate about Arab opinion turning in Hezbollah's favor because of the duration of the Israeli bombing and the heroic-seeming Hezbollah resistance, it's a reminder of why so much importance was placed on speed in the much-maligned Iraq invasion plan: to avoid just this sort of political dynamic in the Arab world. (Although it's doubtful Israel could ever be fast enough to placate the Arab world.)

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDAyN2M0NjQwMzUwZDA1MTFkYWQyNDI0NDU3MWY0MWQ=

Friday, July 28, 2006

Quote for the Day

28 Jul 2006 11:16 am

"It is an advantage that Iraq is near Palestine. Muslims should support its holy warriors until an Islamic emirate dedicated to jihad is established there, which could then transfer the jihad to the borders of Palestine," - Ayman al-Zawahiri, on al Jazeerah.

The connection between what is happening in Iraq and what is happening in Lebanon cannot, to my mind, be under-estimated. What else are the Shiite militias in Iraq gradually seizing the levers of government in Baghdad but a version of Hezbollah?

http://time.blogs.com/daily_dish/2006/07/quote_for_the_d_30.html

[ProSense]

1. Making Allies Out of Thugs (the neocons who believe WWIII is the answer)

Making Allies Out of Thugs --update--

It's not exactly what President Bush and his administration do best. In fact, they ostracize our enemies as if we are in this world alone. Evidently, the conservatives haven't been paying much attention to Iraq, or what happens when you leave potential allies, no matter how smarmy, on the outside dodging bombs, U.S. made bombs, that is, while their country is being destroyed.

When Bush and Franks, et al let Osama go at Tora Bora, they created a mythic folk hero out of him, even though he was on the rise after 9/11. But now we still haven't caught him. The fact is that even if and when we do it will only be a postscript, especially considering the chapters that have come after Osama.

When I read http://frum.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTgyMTUzNmY3OGZhNTg5MDVlMGZkNzFjMTc5MTRhZTM=">David Frum yesterday, I wasn't exactly surprised, but wondered if Fukuyama would be happy to have a new friend. Glenn and Billmon are talking about it today too. Frum is looking for a "second best" option in Iraq these days because he's given up on the first. We talked about it yesterday, new troops amassing on the streets when 30,000 haven't done the job yet.

David Frum has joined with Tom Ricks, whose education from 2003 to now has been a fantastic, yet fatal, journey to watch, though he's still saying we have to stay in Iraq for another 10-15 years. Ricks knows more about Iraq than most people because he's chronicled the insanity and been caught up in every wrong turn we made, to come out with his new book FIASCO. I give him credit for finally making the journey to this book, but that said, he still has to answer the questions and take the heat, which he brought on himself by not questioning what he was being told. However, Ricks is certainly not alone and to make him out the only one in the pitiful press pack who got it wrong misses the point. The reality is, the entire U.S. press corps did the same thing, so Ricks has a lot of company. I don't think any of the corporate press did their jobs on Iraq, which I've said time and time again, as have others.

But David "axis of evil" Frum is a different case. He's Richard Perle's sidekick, the man who wrote many of the words that had Bush believing the stuff Rummy and Cheney were telling him. Now Mr. Frum has had a change of heart. As far as Iraq goes, we're screwed, unfortunately, we're not in this position because the neocons blew the planning, or shouldn't have concocted preemption, let alone the "war on terror" deadliness, in the first place. We're screwed because the war we waged wasn't large enough.

This is not, as some American commentators argue, because the Iraqis refuse to fight for their country. Thousands of brave Iraqis, civil and military, have laid down their lives fighting or working for a secure and democratic Iraq. But Iraq has powerful enemies, inside and out. To date, the US has fought only a limited war against those enemies. Iran understands that the war in Iraq is a regional war. Syria understands it too. Only the US has tried to pretend that the war zone stops at the international border. In some horrible rerun of Vietnam, the US has let the enemy establish safe havens just on the other side of the line, from which it draws supplies and reinforcements with impunity. It's like some baby boomer nightmare: after decades of swearing that we would never repeat the mistakes of our parents, we are re-enacting the errors committed in Indochina in the 1960s and 1970s, every single one.
Iraq: New Plan Wanted

Somebody slap this man.

WWIII is their answer. If we'd just bomb Iran, take on Syria, and encourage Israel to push on through Lebanon, death be damned, we'd be set. But Bush just won't commit to more muscle. I mean, really, to use Madeleine Albright's line, what's all this military power for if we're not going to use it?

Snip...

UPDATE (10:20 a.m.): The press conference with Blair and Bush was incredible to watch. David Gregory asked Bush a question about the violence and how Bush promised 3 years ago that Iraq would bring about a new reality in the region, but instead American's influence has collapse. Bush could not answer the question. He was paralyzed. It was frightening to watch. Blair finally tried to tackle it, but by then it was too late. Remarkable. Also, Bush seems to be backing down and moving towards a ceasefire, which will give Hezbollah more power, even make it look like they won the war. Why would Israel agree? Bush's policies get more incomprehensible by the minute. This just came in from Billmon. Amen.

http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php?id=24303

July 28, 2006
Quote Of The Day

"We're for staying the course in Iraq and the war on terror."

-- Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist on the GOP's '06 nat'l security message, "Hannity and Colmes," FNC, 7/27

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/07/quote_of_the_da_3.html