Are we headed for a split convention?

[supernova]

Here's where I'm coming from; look at the results so far:

John Kerry (248)*
Missouri
Arizona
Delaware
Arizona
Iowa
New Hampshire

John Edwards (102)*
South Carolina

Wesley Clark (80)*
Oklahoma

Howard Dean (121)*



* Total number of delegates. Statistics courtesy of CNN. Thanks HFishbine for finding that. :hi: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/graphical.html

My question: Is it possible that the plethora of candidates could siphon off just enough delegates so that no one candidate hits the magic number 2161 before the convention? What would that be like? Do you think it would be a good or a bad idea and why or why not?

I DO NOT want this to turn into a "my candidate is better than your candidate" flamefest. I'm only focusing on strategy.

I have my thoughts, but I'd like to hear yours first.

[Brucey]

1. It's possible, but unlikely.

Kerry is on a roll now, and it's difficult to see him not making the majority of delegates by mid-March.

[MAlibdem]

2. Depends...

Kerry won 50% in 3 states on tuesday, if he continues that course, and gets most of the superdelegates, it won't be.

That assumes everybody stays in. I don't think they will. Dean will until mathematically he's lost, because he'll have the money. Clark and Edwards won't have the money. And Kerry is going to either get big Dem fundraisers to work for him or run out of money or have a debt to pay after he secures the nom.

[liberalnurse]

3. I hope so......the leader, Kerry, is not looking out

for the interest of the constituents but only for the party insiders. I want better than who is in office right now. I want my country back...if it is at all possible.

[bryant69]

5. Just so you know

Kerry is a lot better than who is in office right now.

[Democrats unite]

6. Just so you know two wrongs don't make a right.

[supernova]

7. Um, that doesn't answer the question

This little side bar is getting close to what I don't want.

So liberalnurse and Democrats unite, you're saying you would like a brokered convention? Why or why not?

edit: spelling

[Democrats unite]

10. What I am saying is let the primaies continue.

We will deal with a brokered Convention at the time, if there happens to be one.

[bryant69]

4. It's like poker

I mean someobody is going to figure that their hand isn't good enough and drop out or say "Well Candidate X, you ran a good campaign." "Thank you, Candidate Y, and I want you to know that there is a place for you in my administration."

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[GalleryGod]

8. Nope. Kerry Homecoming in Boston. No Hotel Room Needed.

JK gets to sleep in his own bed....1st ballot Win! BTW after March 2nd...all those "Dean" super delegates will switch to "Kerry" Super Delegates in the blink of an eye!

*Ain't been a split convention in 52 years-won't start now.

* The Making of the President 1960,1964,1968,& 1972.
* Marathon: The Race for the White House 1976,
* Whose Broad Stripes and Bright Stars: 1984

Etc,Etc,Etc.

[HFishbine]

9. Your Numbers

That link you cite is innacurate (it actually has Clark with 300 delegates.) Here's an accurate total to date:

Kerry: 248
Dean: 121
Edwards: 102
Clark: 80
Lieberman: 25
Sharpton: 5
Kucinich: 2

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/index.html

For a very telling look, see it in graphical form: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/graphical.html

[supernova]

12. Thank you

for the find. I corrected my post. :hi:

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

11. It is waaaaay too early to tell that

I seriously doubt it, but there are 41 more states to go. Super Tuesday is not until March ... 3rd is it? That will give a better picture with big states like CA and NY.

[supernova]

13. It may be too early

to be asking this question, but I'm a speculative kind of woman. ;-)

[vi5]

14. Wouldn't it be funny with these superdelegates and such...

How "the establishment" candidate (Kerry) gets more support from "the people" (ie. actual votes), but the candidate who is supposedly for "the people" gets support from of "the establishment" (ie. endorsements/delegates).

[supernova]

15. Yes,

that is one concept that has crossed my mind.

I just find it all very interesting.