Why John Kerry Will Win The Presidency. (Part 1)

WiseMen

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Fri Feb-06-04 01:01 AM
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Why John Kerry Will Win The Presidency. (Part 1)

John Kerry will win the presidency.

There are fundamentals of Presidential electoral politics that work in his favor. We Dems need to sober-up and face the major challenge of creating a strong grass-roots movement to retake some seats in the House and Senate or else we should just get out of the way.

The overarching reason why Kerry will win is his relatively genuine Presidential Stature within the political establishment, which, over time is naturally transferred to the public at large (relative, that is, to GWB). By Presidential Stature I mean to refer to that quality of presence and that unambiguous grasp of matters of foreign and domestic policy that gives one credibility as Head of State and Commander-In-Chief.

It sounds subjective, but it is largely subjective factors that determine the choice of a leader. The large percentage of Democrats that polls show already view Kerry as “Presidential” means that the party can pretty much count on being able to rally the democratic base.

Beyond rallying the base, there are two basic challenges of U.S. electoral politics for the democratic nominee: (1) success with the Independent Vote, and (2) an inroad into “Red States” or the Middle-America and Southern Vote. In both cases Kerry will win.

The Independent Vote.

What is the independent vote looking for? This is somewhat unpredictable since independents are more heavily motivated by personal factors as opposed to party or ideological loyalty. They are however a few generalities from past elections that suggest that in a nationwide Kerry vs. Bush match-up Kerry could win the independent vote. Key issues:

1. Independents (Indys) are heavily influence by the temporal dynamics of the economy and national security. If the economy continues to rebound the Indy will be reluctant to vote for change. However, if the Iraq War continues to go badly the Indy will be willing to consider a new Commander-In-Chief. A vicious critique of Bush’s competence in national security will be effective among Independents if the Dems leverage Kerry’s credential to make him as a strong and credible alternative.

2. The independent vote tends to be entrepreneurial and pro-business. Every Indy thinks he/she could become a big-wig next year. Kerry’s free-market and “entrepreneurial” approach to job-creation and the economy will likely attract the Independent vote.

3. The independent vote tends to a candidate who is perceive to be bi-partisan and able to work across party lines to develop national consensus. John Kerry has a highly valuable “image” of being respected in the Senate. His long service on powerful legislative committees, his noteworthy cross-party line votes and friendships in the Senate improves his chances with the Indy voter.

4. Finally, the independent vote is attracted to “star quality.” This is Kerry’s secret sauce with Independents. His storied past, the good and the bad, along with his golden resume closes the sale with the independent voter.

The Red States—the Southern and Middle-America Vote.

Kerry will win because he understands the “Dixie trap” and is serious about what he has to do to make inroads into the “red states.” He knows a little history and a little culture.

A little recent history

Clinton/Gore (2 sons of the South) won 5 Southern States against Bush Senior who was viewed as a North-Easterner.
But Gore/Lieberman won 0 (not counting FL) Southern States against Bush Junior who was viewed as a Southerner.

The percentage margins of Democratic 2000 losses were double-digit in Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas.

Happily, John Kerry can read the electoral map. He has acknowledged what ought to be evident to all: Democrats should not seek electoral votes in these states.

Kerry’s strategy is to win a couple of the “swing states” that Gore lost by a narrow margin: Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, Ohio or Arizona. And he will do it.

A little about culture.

As Kerry recognizes, the Southern voter respects service to nation. The reality is the Southern voter likes a candidate with a “strong military” image, as Zel Miller would say they “like a guy with a little grit in his craw.” And this doesn’t just apply to the South. Much of Middle-America shares with the south a large population of veterans and a respect for military service.

In fact, the “military vote” (active, reserve, veteran) is a significant component to the Southern and Middle-America vote. Some estimates show that a 80% of the military vote, concentrated in critical swing States, usually goes Republican, significantly affecting electoral college results.

Less than 5 percent in the military vote would have given Democrats the electoral votes in Arkansas, Nevada and New Hampshire in 2000. John Kerry’s decorated military service and the testimony of his fellow veterans could give the Democrats a deserved anti-Bush swing the military vote.

For good or ill, a significant niche of the Southern/Middle-America vote like their presidential candidates tall, tough and straight-shooting. Dukakis blew it because he didn’t “look right” in a tank. John Kerry does not have to get in the tank. He already paid his dues. He just has to push “Play” on the new documentary about the service and struggles of his “Band of Brothers.”

The fundamentals of U.S. electoral politics suggests that John Kerry should win in 2004. The Republicans understand this and that is why Bush is running around the country chasing Kerry.

The question is now largely whether we Democrats, with all our factions and contradictions, will do what it takes to win big, and perhaps take back the House and the Senate. To do that we will need to rally a massive coast-to-coast grass-roots revival of democratic ideals, and a realignment of the electorate for change. But that is another story.