Looking Forward (Apologies to Edward Bellamy)

[Julien Sorel]

This is just for fun, but let's assume for a moment that Kerry wins the nomination, then goes on to lose to Bush in the general. How many people see what a wild scenario that could set up in 2008? The list of contenders is mind boggling:

Kerry -- back for a second shot? He's just barely young enough to give it one more shot, and he's amply demonstrated resourcefulness and driving ambition. He'll have probably paid off those loans by then, too ;-)

Edwards -- the best pure politician in the country not named Bill Clinton. He'd be 54, probably look about 40, and have the experience of this campaign, plus 3 years of position papers and fence-building under his belt. The most dangerous one of all I think.

Hillary Clinton -- Brilliant, unsurpassed name recognition, better than a friend of Bill, she's the wife of Bill. Fundraising dynamo, well-connected, from a large state with some southern roots as well -- if she was a man, you'd call the whole thing off as a gross mismatch before it started. But prejudices still exist out there, so she has a big weakness. Something tells me that the mindless anti-Clinton drone from the wingers will have grown tiresome by the next election cycle.

Al Gore -- Maybe one more time. He probably hurt himself with his Dean endorsement, but people have short memories, and he has the name recognition thing going for him. He has consistently shown no stomach for tough fights, though -- he ducked Bush Sr, setting the table for Clinton, then ducked a rematch with Bush Jr. With this field staring him in the face, he might just grow another beard and focus on his media deal, if it ever pans out.

Wesley Clark -- may have a sour taste in his mouth after this election, but he's grown a ton. May have problems drawing from his natural base in the South when competing against a 'purer' southerner. Shares donation base with Clinton -- only one of them likely to run. Clark's chances in 2008 rest on his ability to win a few southern states this year to establish credibility, then see what Hillary does -- and that's if he even chooses to run again. Overall prospects not too great, but the potential is there, especially if he lays the freakin' groundwork this time.

Howard Dean -- Probably done for. He's been McGoverned, without even reaching the general election. I doubt his donor base, which is what made him this cycle, would hold together for the time necessary to get him steam in four years. He certainly demonstrated craftiness this time around, but also displayed gaping weaknesses that presidential campaigns will draw out. My guess is, his presidential chances are over.

Someone always comes out of the woodwork. Dean did it this year, so did Clark, and someone likely will in 2008. Bill Richardson? Mike Easley, a former drug-busting prosecutor who is currently governor of North Carolina? Brad Henry of Oklahahoma, who is I believe the youngest governor in the country, has a good looking resume, and a babe for a wife? I don't know who, but there are a ton of talented folks out there should the heavyweights not be appealing. The Democratic bench is incredibly deep, people are already tired of the name of Bush, and the party that has had the presidency two terms in a row faces an uphill battle in the next election. If we lose in 04, it's almost certainly lights out for the Republicans in 08. It's just a question of who pulls the switch.

[NNN0LHI]

1. This was like reading the Green Sheet at the track

As for coming out of the woodwork watch for Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich. He seems to be coming on strong in the Democratic party. He is a mudder too. :-)

Don