Fellow Virginians, do you believe this?

[felonious thunk]

From a local newspaper:

In Virginia, Democrats have a small, but surprising edge with 37 percent of voters saying they are Democrat and 34 percent identifying themselves as Republican, in a state known to be socially moderate, at best, and fiscally conservative.

Is it possible that the Old Dominion could be up for grabs?

[spooky3]

1. I think there is a chance. I think it's a very polarized state, like

several others in the US.

Unemployment is not as bad here as elsewhere because manufacturing was never as big an industry. But NoVA has experienced a high tech and biotech bust, throwing people who might have voted Rep. before out of work. Rural VA is similar to other rural America. Tidewater has a lot of military folks.

[HFishbine]

2. Absolutely

Dole beat Clinton in '96 in VA by only 47,000 votes (out of 2.22 M). Come back from the dark side VA.

[Zech Marquis]

17. you should have hEARD the radio that day!

the freeps were PRAYING out loud for Dole to hang in there and win Virginia. And he BARELY did! There was a traffic jam at y voting location--we almost pulled it off too LOl

[Eurobabe]

19. indy lean dem

another body in Albemarle to help VA claw its way back from the dark side :)

[demnan]

3. We have a Democratic Governor

so it's possible. This is a large and varied state. Yes there is the conservative Richmond and southern areas, but there are also a vast number of people, many liberal or moderate Independents or Democrats, in the Northern part of the state. And don't forget the mountain areas of the state, which are more like West Virginia than they are like the Richmond area, politically, socially and economically.

Norfolk/Virginia Beach is an urban area with quite a few African-American and more liberal voters as well.

I don't think it's out of the realm that VA could go Democratic.

[underpants]

5. All a Dem has to do is follow Gov.Warner's model

Richmond's suburbs (west and south) are conservative but the city itself is very Dem leaning. The Beach is a foregone conclusion very conservative and most Repub money in the state comes from there (See Ollie Norht's contributors in '94). Nova is mostly Dem leaning. Roanoke is Dem but the further up the valley you go the more Right leaning it gets but there aren't a lot of people there.

What Warner did was hit the no man's land along the NC border and past Bristol. It is an area that is mostly disregarded so he picked up a lot of working class votes there. The major areas voted as expected but Warner won with the votes he went and got where most campaigns never worry about.

Va. is very much in play. With Kerry or Clark on the ticket they can get some (but not win) in Hampton Roads and if Edwards on the ticket he can sweep the NC/Va border area with his history and his (gasp) RFK like charm (see most post about my in-laws seeing him last night in Blacksburg).

[felonious thunk]

9. Good points

I agree. The Southside area is basically in economic depression, and it has only gotten worse since 2000. I think that a Democrat could take some of south and southwest VA. Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria are necessitites to win.

Edwards packed in a large crowd in the freezing rain in Roanoke last night.

[Michael Harrington]

14. There are solid Democratic pockets here.

A lot of Southwest (Rick Boucher, 9th District. Look him up.) is swayable with the right economic arguments.

[in_cog_ni_to]

4. I know 3 Democrats in Va.

My sister, my brother-in-law and my niece. :7



I hope this is correct...GOOD news for we Democrats!

[underpants]

6. Socially moderate? Fiscally conservative?

Uh Va. is not even close to moderate socially. Hell oral sex is still illegal according to the law.

We are fiscally conservative NOW. Gilmore and Allen coudl barely balance the books when the economy was roaring and then the emptied the bank.

Those number probably come from the fact that you dont' have to register either way in this state so it is from a survey/poll.

Which paper?

The Daily Mess?
The Times-Disgrace?

[felonious thunk]

7. The Stale and Stagnant

Otherwise known as the Lynchburg News and Advance. Moderate to them is probably just being vehemently anti-abortion, as opposed to protesting outside the clinic everyday.

[underpants]

8. Yikes from Jerrytown

Sorry I know you probably hate that. Oh the stories I could tell about the Reverend.

[felonious thunk]

11. I don't actually live there, a friend does

I'm in Northern Virginia, I have a friend that lives down that way and just hates Lynchburg, so he sends me lots of stuff from the local paper.

He has some good stories about the good Reverend as well.

[Freddie Stubbs]

10. This is like Western Pennsylvania

It is filled with many life-long Democrats. Many of them are union members, but they are also pro-life and anti-gun control. They have been voting for Republicans in recent years, as evidenced bythe increase in GOP Congressmen and state legislators.

Just because people are Democrats doesn't mean that they won't vote for Republicans.

[bhunt70]

12. I hope so, seems so from NoVa

but the rest of the state seems more conservative.

I'd love for our state to be a (D) state again.

[John_H]

13. My guess is that there are a lot of military "independents" VA is

a pretty conservative state, although we made big gains in No. VA the last election.

[Butterflies]

15. I went to hear Edwards speak in Roanoke last night

and I was very encouraged by the crowd. He was about an hour and a half late because of the weather, but most everyone stayed (a couple hundred, I think) and the people were very appreciative about what he was saying. He stayed and shook hands with people afterwards, and there was a big crowd waiting for that. It gave me a more hopeful feeling about this area, but I know east southeastern VA is more conservative. I like seeing those percentages you listed, but I don't believe them. I sure hope I'm wrong though.

[Zech Marquis]

16. which paper was this?

I would here in hampton Roads, it's kind of a 50/50 split--you have the Dem stronghold--the 3 rd voting district (which is mine btw), and then you have alot of retired and actve military around VA Beach, Hampton and Chesapeake who are definity the freeper type :eyes: Pat Robinson operates from VA Beach, so that speakes volumes..yet still, many people in Va Beach are angry at * too. You still have the usual hardcore freeps, yet the "independent" voters ARE having buyers remorse big time!

[mdguss]

18. I've worked in Virginia:

It has pockets of liberalism and lots of conservative Democrats (especially in the southwest) that may or may not vote Democrat. I believe there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, but many Democrats in Virginia probably do vote Republican.

[elsiesummers]

20. I grew up in VA

lived in Tidewater (now called Hampton Roads) - worked both there and Richmond.

I have been away from VA, though still have ties there, for a few years.

The vote in Richmond is segregated along racial lines. It was the capital of the confederacy. There are bars there that have confederate flags or portraits of Robert E. Lee on the wall.

Tidewater is a bit of a novelty - there is the influence of academics (liberals) there, also other universities in VA. Norfolk - because of ODU and a strong Af. Amer. population is quite Democratic - go to Va Beach and you see the results of "white flight." Chesapeake is a booming suburb. For a long time Va Beach building stalled because of water problems, which have since been ammeliorated, so Va Beach expansion is back.

Academics in Charlottesville (UVA) also and William and Mary (but this school is small) - and then you have Va Tech - I know less of this Western area.

Republicans in VA are the most hard core I've ever met anywhere.

Democrats in VA are also the most hard core I've ever met anywhere:).

The influence of the military is strong both in Hampton Roads and in Northern Va. There is also a strong population of immigrants in both of these relatively Urban areas.

Guns are a big issue even in the urban areas - many weekend hunters out there.

Rural VA (Western) is like much of red state rural America.

Demographically - the increase in minority population will gradually swing VA over to the Democratic column, IMO.

Va often votes in Democratic Governors and Republican Presidents (Robb, Baliles, Davis, Warner). I think it has the potential to be a swing state - but it would have to be a real Southerner on the top of the ticket - Kerry, even with his military background - can't imagine him swinging VA to the blue column.