Why Senate Will Be Tougher For Democrats to Take Back

[question everything]

The Wall Street Journal

Why Senate Will Be Tougher For Democrats to Take Back
By JACKIE CALMES
September 1, 2006; Page A8

WASHINGTON -- As Republicans' woes have built in the 2006 campaign season, handicappers of all stripes have been steadily raising expectations that Democrats can recapture control of the House. But few go so far as to predict Democrats will seize the Senate.

(snip)

With one-third of the 100 Senate seats up for election every two years, the 2006 group includes 18 now held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. That means Democrats have more seats to defend, and fewer Republican seats they can capture. Of the 15 Republican seats, nearly half -- seven -- are out of Democrats' reach. Those are held by entrenched incumbents mostly from red-Republican states, such as Mississippi's Trent Lott, Indiana's Richard Lugar and Utah's Orrin Hatch. Of the remaining eight Republican seats, two belong to Virginia's George Allen and Arizona's John Kyl. While both have political problems and credible rivals, they still are favored for re-election, absent a big anti-Republican wave.

That leaves six Republican targets -- exactly the number Democrats need. They would have to run the table, knocking out five well-funded incumbents and electing Rep. Harold Ford Jr. to the Tennessee seat that retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is vacating.

(snip)

This year's most vulnerable Republicans are Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum, Ohio's Michael DeWine, Missouri's Jim Talent, Montana's Conrad Burns and Rhode Island's Lincoln Chafee, who first faces a tough party primary challenge Sept. 12. Assume that Democrats do take six Republicans' seats. They still will have a Senate majority only if they also retain all 18 of their current seats. Most are safe. Yet Democrats are fretful to varying degrees over a few seats -- the ones held by Washington's Maria Cantwell, Michigan's Debbie Stabenow and New Jersey's Robert Menendez, along with open seats in Minnesota and Maryland.

(snip)


URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115707787134551475.html (subscription)

[TreasonousBastard]

1. Well, yeah, it's not like...

we didn't know this. Kudos to WSJ for being only maybe a year late.

Funny how they forgot about Connecticut, though.

Around here, I don't doubt Hillary will win the primary and the general, but I kinda worry about Menendez across the river. He was picked as the successor to Corzine and very popular in his hometown, but I dunno how he'll fare in the general. Haven't heard whether or not he's got full support from the machines over there and it's the local Democratic machines who will decide his fate.

And across the sound, who knows what trouble Lieberman will cause as the spoiler.

[no_hypocrisy]

2. Mendendez is getting a good start already.

I've seen his campaign signs on the highways, using the patriotic red, white, and blue colors before Kean, Jr. copyrights the colors for his campaign. But, Mendendez has to stay in the public's eye, and use his hispanic, his Hudson County democratic connections, and the legacy of the democratic of the NJ Senate seat to stay ahead and build from there.

[rhett o rick]

3. With our form of government it is almost impossible to unseat an

incumbent Senator. Even in the Lieberman case, he still may return to the Senate. Big money runs this government and big money almost always supports the incumbent. There are exceptions of course but few. In Washington, the state, Slade Gorton lost a close race with Maria Cantwell a few years back. All the big money had gone to Gorton. Cantwell went well into debt to finance her election. No problem, the big money paid off her debit, post election. A bribe is a bribe.

[question everything]

4. Also a member of the House

Both parties are guilty at setting Congressional districts that favor the incumbents. Unless there are rivers, lakes, mountain ranges and oceans, all districts should be square or rectangular shapes. And they should be set by citizens groups with no political agenda beyond honest elections.

One exception, I suppose, as recently ruled by the Supreme Court, is not to dilute the voices of minorities.

[Stinky The Clown]

5. The author seems to forget .......

..... that scant weeks ago, Ford was seen as having little chance. This author casually includes him in with the Dem incumbents as a seat for us.

I'm more than hopeful it is a pick-up seat for us, but the bigger issue is that the 'Democratic wave' he says has to happen is ..... well .... happeneing.

[Beetwasher]

6. Heh, This Article Lists "Macaca" Allen As "Favored"

Not anymore.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Allen is a 3/1 favorite

But it was 10/1 before macaca. That's according to the odds on Tradesports.