The Weekender: Labor: A Perfect Storm On A Perfect Map?

[Omaha Steve]

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/09/the_weekender_l.html

September 01, 2006
The Weekender: Labor: A Perfect Storm On A Perfect Map?

Argument-provoking thoughts from the editors of the Hotline.

Organized labor held a full-dress press conference Wednesday to argue that the "combination of economic trends, voters' dissatisfaction with out-of-touch politicians and the AFL-CIO's massive mobilization" adds up to "a perfect storm" that will blow over the GOP this November. But are they forgetting a fourth key factor, perhaps as strategically important as the first three?

The AFL won't reveal exactly where the 21 GOV races, 15 SEN contests and 50+ House seats are that they are playing in, but it doesn't require much extrapolation to determine the targets. For our purposes, lets use The Hotline's rankings of the most competitive races (or, as we categorize them, those most likely to switch party). Then lets examine those states and districts with the most union strength, as measured by where there are or are not right-to-work laws (not the most exact determination, we realize, but a good barometer nevertheless).

Of the top 20 GOV races, only four are taking place in right-to-work states (AR, IA, NV and GA). Of these four, respectively: AG/GOV candidate Mike Beebe (D) has a significant lead in both polls and fundraising in what is still a Dem state; Sec/State/GOV candidate Chet Culver (D) is widely considered to be leading, though there has not been reliable polling released of late, and will receive at least $1M from the DGA in a state with a good deal of union muscle; state Sen. Min Leader Dina Titus (D) is not favored but does have the backing of labor in one of the few states where labor is on the ascent; LG Mark Taylor (D) is, well, 20th.

Similarly, of the top 20 SEN races, only six are in right-to-work states. And more significantly in a body where Dems need just six seats to capture the majority, nine out of our ten most competitive races take place in non-right-to-work states (NE is ranked #10).

Among our top 30 House races (Dems need 15 to re-take the House), just eight are being contested in right-to-work states. And of these eight, two are taking place in IA (see GOV paragraph above) and one is TX 22 (if you have to ask...).

More importantly, there are clusters of races in the states where the union program will be the strongest -- in Ohio, Indiana, New York, Pennsylvania and Michigan. At the very least, labor's muscle should be able to blunt the effects of the vaunted RNC 72 Hour Program in those targeted states.

Take a state like Montana, for example, or New Mexico, where unions are comparatively weak. There, the 72 Hour Program has a good chance of boosting the margin of Republican incumbents.

But what about the split in labor?

This will be the first full cycle since the AFL convention in summer of '05 when the crack-up began. Will the absence of such politically muscular unions as SEIU from the House of Labor weaken the effort?

Not surprisingly, senior officials from both the AFL and SEIU told us in interviews conducted separately earlier this month that the answer is "no." 80% of local affiliates within those breakaway unions have come back to AFL for political purposes and will participate in the federation's campaign efforts this fall.

But didn't labor promise a similarly spectacular ground game in '04, only to see Pres Bush win in such union-heavy battleground states as OH?

Yes, they acknowledge, but 89% of OH's union voters turned out in the Buckeye state last cycle, meeting or exceeding all of their targets on election day. With the president's popularity slipping, a GOP base upset over immigration and spending, and motivated Dems, they argue that union turnout numbers even close to what they had in '04 will suffice in delivering Dem wins.

But, speaking of "perfect storms," though, didn't Dems lose the '04 ground game in part because they relied on what one old labor hand derided as "stranger to stranger" voter contact?

While the 527s did buy (or rent) canvassers to GOTV last cycle, labor contends that they, not the missing-in-action 527s, are driving the turnout train now. SEIU, in particular, touts its "member-to-member" plan, promising to rely on local and in-state members to lead the effort and only bringing in those from out-of-state who also wear the purple.