This will be a 2 man race - - but not Kerry v Edwards

[absyntheNsugar]

This will be a race between Kerry and Dean. Depending on who does what, who pulls out, and how well the ads Dean has planned work...the race may even be close.

Check Zogby. Although Dean hasn't won a single state, he has more delegates than Edwards. Kerry does have the lion share, but do not be so quick to write him off.

Now, if by some turn of events Clark drops out, and endorses Dean - the race becomes even closer. This may or may not happen but I honestly think Clark will back Dean before Edwards or Kerry. Sharpton will most likely back Kerry and Kucinich will most likely back Edwards.

And Edwards? If Kerry wins there's a good chance Edwards would be his VP pick. Dean made an error on courting Graham for VP in the FL debates...if he left it open Clark supporters might have been a little more warmer to him.

Anyway...those are my horse race speculations. Take them for what they're worth (the price of the data blocks they're written to?)

[southpaw72]

1. dean's delegates

Check Zogby. Although Dean hasn't won a single state, he has more delegates than Edwards. Kerry does have the lion share, but do not be so quick to write him off.

My understanding is that most of Dean's delegates are "superdelegates," Dem party heavyweights who have promised their votes to Dean, but could still change their minds.

Not trying to be pro-Kerry or pro-Dean, just clarifying the situation.

[DU9598]

2. Zogby

No, I won't check Zogby. I do not consider his polls to have been particularly reliable in the prior primary or caucus states.

After Wisconsin, unfortunately, Dean will be done. He brought a lot to the race, but his time is not now.

[rock]

10. Good show. I applaud you

Polls don't vote and they don't even do a good job of showing what the voters will do. (I mean the polls as currently done, i.e. non-scientifically).

[lancdem]

3. I'm sorry, but Dean has no chance

Kerry will pick up more delegates this weekend, and Edwards and Clark will soon pass Dean. Kerry, Clark and Edwards have won primaries or caucuses; Dean has not. He's no longer even in the top 3. But I agree it may be a Kerry-Edwards ticket.

[Southsideirish]

4. Deans new ads are great - I could weep bitter tears he didn't have

them in Iowa where the ad that I saw (Dean as "talking head" sitting in front of a white background expounding on some issue or other)was so bad it looked like one an amateur made in his basement. I hope they saturate the TV with them in Wisconsin!
Go Wisconsin - reward me for all the tons of money I have spent in your beautiful state as a tourist, lo, these many years.

[boxster]

8. I agree on the Dean Iowa ads.

They were pretty mediocre, especially considering that he spent tons of money there. The white background ad was particularly weak.

The media and the other candidates have taken a lot of heat for "causing" Dean's decline. Perhaps his campaign deserves more of the blame than many of his supporters are willing to acknowledge.

[Democrats unite]

5. The two man race will be...

Clark and or Dean /Kerry. If it is Dean/Kerry I have no problem throwing my support to Dean. If it is Clark/Kerry I would hope that Dean supporters would go with Clark.

[LuminousX]

6. I don't see this becoming a two person race any time soon

And that is the way I like it. I think we need to get America use to seeing 4 to 6 people running for a higher office. We need to become use to more than two points of view.

Dean has a lot of work to do to return from the middle tier he got exiled to. At any point in time, especially after Virginia and Tennessee Clark or Edwards could ramp up leaving Dean and the others behind.

Ideally, all five (including Kucinich - it is important he goes as far as possible) remain viable until mid March. That will allow a lot of the nation to get a chance to vote and help determine true level of support. We are hopefully seeing the way things are going to be in the future. We can't allow just a few states to pick our nominee.

[mojo2004]

7. Dean is on life support...

even if Clark drops out and endorsed Dean, it doesn't mean all or even most his support will go to Dean. Dean's numbers have dropped to the single digits in many areas. I think Dean is playing it smart by putting all his eggs in one basket (Wisconsin). Dean has to get a win and thus some momentum before California to have any shot.

[Renew Deal]

9. Dean will be 0-14 by next Tuesday.